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Diplomacy

If diplomacy is not revived, the new world will be born through war, Prof. Diesen warns

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Editor’s note: In this speech delivered at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26–27, Norwegian political scientist Prof. Glenn Diesen examined the collapse of the unipolar world order and the turbulent transformation sweeping the international system. While laying bare the structural dilemmas of Western-centric hegemonic universalism, Diesen pointed out that rising powers are forging a new multipolar balance centered on civilization-states. Underlining the identity and security crisis into which Europe has plunged, Diesen warned that unless diplomacy is revived, the new global order could be shaped through war.

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The unipolar world order has collapsed, and we should conduct a post-mortem to reflect on what went wrong and to understand the current turbulent transition of the world. In 1989, Francis Fukuyama famously published his article on the ‘End of History,’ which was largely adopted as an ideological guide by the political West. The world only had one superpower and one ideology, and the expectation was that the world would unify under US leadership and liberal democratic values. The dominance of the US would end international anarchy and security competition, as there was only one centre of power, and the US hegemon would elevate the role of liberal democracy to form an inclusive community of universal values. For more than three decades, the West produced a new generation of politicians who believed that the collective hegemony of the West was for the benefit of all mankind, and they were the administrators who would manage the transition from the chaotic world of the past to perpetual peace. So what went wrong?

The unipolar moment was always destined to be a temporary phenomenon, as the US would predictably exhaust its resources and incentivise rising powers to collectively balance the US. However, there is also an inherent contradiction in hegemonic universalism, as universal values are linked to one entity of power. A hegemon claims to represent universal values such as freedom, democracy, and human rights, albeit this universalism is promoted through a particular historical, cultural, and geopolitical order.

Universal values advocating for equality are used to institutionalise a dominant position for the US. Universal values advocating for inclusion are used to build exclusive blocs such as NATO rather than developing an inclusive pan-European security architecture. John Herz noted as early as 1950 that the more democratic states were at home, the more they seemed to insist on a dominant position in international institutions to defend liberal values from the rule of the majority. Liberal values build on the idea that tolerance is imperative, as all people and states have different ideas about the good life and their own path to development, yet the universality of values suggests that all states must develop along the same path, and the political West, as the champion of liberal democracy, is the civilizational teacher seeking to “socialize” the rest of the world. Diplomacy between sovereign equals is replaced with the ‘civilizational teachers’ rewarding or punishing the ‘civilizational students’. The hegemon will also discipline states that does not follow its values, and also punish the states that become too powerful and thus undermine its hegemonic position. Liberalism has subsequently been promoted as a hegemonic norm.

The modern world order was established with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, in which a hegemonic system legitimised with universalist claims was replaced with a multipolar system based on the cultural distinctiveness of states.

The past 80 years have been a historical anomaly, with a bipolar system that collapsed and gave way to a unipolar system with one centre of power. The ‘normal’ situation of the world has been a multipolar Westphalian system with a power equilibrium that accommodates the cultural distinctiveness of states.

Over the past decades, hegemonic universalism transformed European states as national competencies were transferred to the US. US military dominance meant that Europe largely outsourced its security, foreign policy and strategic thinking to the US within the format of the alliance system. US economic dominance meant that the international economic architecture, with banks, currencies, payment systems, and trade agreements, was largely administered by the US. Civil society in Europe and beyond has been managed by “non-governmental organizations” financed by the US government and cooperating closely with US intelligence services.

The European political system has increasingly been premised on the idea that loyalty to international institutions is more vital and moral than national interests, as Europe’s linkage to the US within the political West is the main source of stability and prosperity.

The hegemon is now gone, and its universal claims are rejected by the wider world. A multipolar world is already here, and the rising powers are demanding a return to a Westphalian world order of sovereign equals based on civilizational distinctiveness. As Xi Jinping insists, all civilizations have their own path to development, and no aspiring hegemon has the right to tell others how to develop.

The return of rhetoric about civilizational states across the Eurasian continent signifies a rejection of unipolarity and universalism. New institutions such as the SCO and BRICS attempt to accommodate the multipolar world, yet new members are joining faster than institutional efficiency can adjust to. Although centralisation of power, standardization and universalism is understood as undesirable.

The US has reluctantly already begun adjusting to these new realities, as it recognises it cannot be everywhere and must prioritise, while the language of liberal universalism is being replaced with national interests. This could be a positive development as states pursuing strategic interests can seek mutual understanding and compromise, while states that link strategic interests to values will see competition as a struggle between good and evil where compromise is dangerous.

New political forces are rising in the US that want to scale back the empire to save the republic, as a strategic retreat would allow the US to rebuild its strength and end the collective balancing by other great powers.

What makes Europe so dangerous today is its weakness and panic due to the failure of finding a new role in the multipolar system. Security can no longer be based on the dominance of the collective West; there is no clear economic model; and the claims of representing universal values are no longer convincing. Yet, the Europeans are not willing to recognise new realities and adjust accordingly by diversifying economic and political connectivity.

The available evidence suggests that this will be a very turbulent transition from unipolar universalism to multipolar distinctiveness, and the new world will more likely be born through war unless we see a revival of diplomacy.

East-West Forum in Istanbul warns multipolarity is now irreversible

Diplomacy

Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle

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US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.

White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.

“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”

In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.

According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.

The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.

Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.

“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”

Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.

Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.

These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.

Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.

In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.

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IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.

Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.

However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.

In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”

Tenreyro added:

“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.

Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.

US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.

This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.

Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.

Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.

The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.

However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.

The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.

The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.

According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.

These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.

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