Diplomacy
The West is preparing for war not with Russia, but with its own people, French analyst Georges Kuzmanovic insists
Editor’s note: French geopolitical analyst Georges Kuzmanovic, in his speech at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26, emphasized that the West, particularly the European Union, is in a profound political and moral collapse. Stating that Western leaders are completely detached from reality and constantly fuel war out of resentment born from failed globalization, Kuzmanovic pointed out that Europe has lost its sovereignty to neoliberal oligarchies and US tutelage. Expressing that the sabotaging of the 2022 Istanbul Accord by NATO and the relentless sanctions ended in failure, he conveyed that the West cannot come to terms with the independent rise of the Global South.
Well, thank you first for organizing this gathering. This is a great idea, this East West Forum. And I am here also to say to everybody hello from Emmanuel Todd, who was not able to come. He was invited, but he had family issues. And yeah, I would like to see the comeback of the European Enlightenment. But I think that we are first to hit the wall and this is what we are doing. As Thomas expressed, we are in a rapid decline. And in order to have a new Europe, we need to have a change of our leaders. And as Mikael von der Schulenburg said, our leaders, most of them are completely disconnected from reality in a point that is really Orwellian.
And that’s why EU right now is really a pole of instability. It’s always about war talks, war talks, war talks. Firstly against Russia, of course, but not only, of course, Iran. And somewhere somehow with China and in the future with India, it’s already started to build up the mindset again against India because it is rising. And the reason, the profound reason, is because all these leaders, especially the politics and mediatic leaders, a little bit less the industrial businessmen, but they are pissed off. They are pissed off because the globalization went completely wrong. They organized it in order to get all the benefits and all the rest of the planet to work and to be thankful to be working for the Western elite. Well, that doesn’t go well.
And also they’re speaking about European values, democratic values, respect of human beings. But the problem is that you cannot have these values if 10% of the population is consuming 50% of world resources. So that’s the basic problem. And the rest of the world is saying it’s enough and they are not accepting it. So that’s why they’re in complete panic, I think. And that’s why they are more and more vassalized to the United States in the hope that somehow the next strike, the next bomb, the next attack will change something. Because of course all these people who are running Russia, Iran, China, India, Modi is a bad guy, everything. Well, if there is a one strike, the people will rise and change the government because we are the good. And these people of course understand the good. And all their leaders are bad. So there is no space for negotiation. And when you don’t have space for negotiation, well, you cannot find any solution.
And there is a saying from a French humorist, it’s very funny, translate in French is the enemy is stupid because it doesn’t understand that he is the enemy. That’s exactly the mindset. And that’s why all the enemies are somehow Hitler. So Milosevic was Hitler and Saddam Hussein was Hitler and Gaddafi was Hitler and of course Putin, he’s Hitler. And it’s absurd. First Hitler loses hands. If everybody is a Nazi, then nobody’s a Nazi, which is a problem. And of course you cannot discuss with a great evil, so you cannot find solutions.
And I feel the same. I come from the left. I’ve been a long time political leader in the left parties and I have the same feeling with left parties. Until five, six years ago, they were very much about anti globalization protest and gatherings. But if you have noticed, there is no more anti globalization gatherings because it was all about left people from left, European left parties or American explaining to the south, global, global south people how to, how to become something, how to make the revolution, how to grow. But now that these global south countries are organizing by themselves, it’s less interesting.
Yeah, of course we, we need to, if we, if we want Europe to come back on international stage, we need to get back our sovereignty. This has been already told. So of course we lose it. We lost it for united Europe, for sorry, for the European Union, for NATO, but also and eventually for our own oligarchs. And that’s maybe the main problem is that this neoliberalism dogma created an oligarchy in western countries that has taken power. If I take, if I take the example of France, it’s nine billionaire controls like 95% of the medias and six among them are producing weapons. So here we are.
And they are also pissed off because as it was said in 2022 with the memorandum of Istanbul, which was a good solution. A few weeks after the start of this terrible war in Ukraine, which is kind of a third European suicide. Well, as you know, the story will not repeat. NATO countries, especially Boris Johnson went to Kyiv and said, guys, you have to continue the war. And they were convinced the deal was hold the line six months against Russian soldiers. We will defeat them economically and this doesn’t happen. And since they are in complete disarray, so we are on the 21st, 22nd, I don’t know, bunch of sanctions. It didn’t work.
And at the same time, Americans have lost a war in five weeks in Iran. So it’s terrible for people who consider themselves as the leader of the world. And as NATO even said, they have unconscious belief that they are the tops of the world and the rest are the barbarian. Well, if you don’t quit that mindset, then you cannot advance. You can do nothing. It’s so crazy that they are not even interested in what’s going on in Global South. I know because with my friend we created this media fragrance, popular Pedro, who is here. We are traveling around the world to cover the BRICS summits. Well, we are about the only European journalist to be there. It’s crazy. This is not covered even recently in New Delhi.
Well, to summarize with leaders that are, as Colonel Davis said and the others are blocked in 92 and in the Fukuyama concept of the end of history, with people that cannot see the world, that only see the world as war and they have to win the wars, even if it’s absurd, they have not the means to defeat the opponent. I think we have a bigger role. That’s why it’s here. What you’re doing is fantastic. It’s that we have to push for peace. As Professor Zhang Weiwei said, as the first of the six pillars is peace. And what we are all doing as we can is to push for peace. And because it went very wrong.
I think I wouldn’t agree with your interpretation of socialism, because it’s of course based on the Marx work. And if you read Marx, it’s not against violence. It’s not about peacefully achieved upgrade of the human society. On the contrary, it’s a violence blood, even more blood would uprise the majority. It’s like injustice of the humanity that found itself embodied like Haitian way into a working class. And that is why all these injustice allegedly embedded in a working class. Given that working class right to forcefully by war, by killing, overtaken the society and impose violently that imaginary society of communism. So it’s not socialism is like. It’s not democrat socialism of the post second World War Europe. No, it’s something else.
I wanted to add something else, but now I forgot. Yes. In the Second World War, in Croatia, nowadays, Croatia, there was Ustaše state with of course, fascist ideology. Puppet state, they say. But not puppet state, but ally state of Nazi Germany, where Catholic Church was hand in hand with this Ustaše movement. And not a single priest would say no to killing of around 1 million Serbs, Jews, Roma in a system of concentration camps. So even there were priests involved in killing and baptizing these Serbs, like rebaptizing into Catholicism. So we. Well, it’s a very complex phenomenon.
Yeah. It’s about the rapid decline and schizophrenia of our countries. As Colonel Davis is often saying on Deep Dive. It’s bizarre because our leaders are preparing us for war against Russia since already four and a half years. Last year, in the gathering of the mayors of France, which is not the place, the chief of staff took the microphone and it was a speaker and he said that we have to prepare for war in 2030 against Russia. Okay, why not? But there is no conscription, no off conscription, no more tanks built, no more ammunitions. And it’s strange, but there is one thing that is that the boat, a lot of tanks for civil arrest, for the gendarmerie and for the police, and both units are armed to the teeth.
And I think that, okay, they cannot make peace with Russia right now. And all these talks, war are, if I take the example of France, in which we have a presidential election, it is to avoid the main discussions which are why our debt is so crazy, why and is rising very fast, why interest rate is rising very fast, almost eating 5% for the 10 years or 80. Why, why the young people cannot have employment, why the wages are so, so, so, so small, why the diesel price will hit €3 per liter, which is completely insane, and nobody will be able to work on that price. So in order to avoid that and to prepare for the civil unrest will come. They’re speaking about war in Russia, but I’m saying that they’re preparing more to fight their own people.
Diplomacy
Global dockers strike against war and arms transit to Palestine
Dockers at 111 ports across 22 countries and territories will down tools on Friday as part of a coordinated anti-war strike.
So far, more than 25 dockers’ unions, spanning from Marseille to Mumbai, Hamburg to Montevideo, and Melbourne to Oakland, have announced their participation in the walkout.
Just days ago, the figure stood at approximately 100 ports in 17 countries, a tally that excluded dozens of unions from other sectors that had pledged their support.
The striking workers’ primary demand is that no weapons or military cargo pass through their ports.
In France, the main dockers’ union states that 95% of the country’s ports will be shut down.
Twenty-four-hour strikes will take place in Italy, India, Greece, and Türkiye, while work stoppages of up to two hours are scheduled in Morocco and Cyprus, alongside rallies planned in port cities across the globe.
In Greece, metalworkers, ship repair workers, and youth are joining the dockers, while in the US, International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 10 is striking in Oakland and San Francisco.
The unions are taking the Istanbul Declaration, signed in May, as their basis, with each determining its own form of participation.
They are also fighting for their own jobs, resisting layoffs driven by automation, and campaigning for contracts, pay increases, shorter working hours, and job security.
The unions draw attention to escalating wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, pointing to the risk of a wider, general war.
They also condemn new crimes committed by Israel in Hebron, carried out with the support of the US, NATO, and the EU. According to the UN, Israel’s blockade of the city has entered its sixth day, and more than 3,000 Palestinians have been displaced. Palestinian trade unions are backing Friday’s action.
In Italy, the struggle has spilled beyond the docks. The USB union has called a nationwide general strike.
Last night, the Italian government ordered transport workers to return to work. The USB declared that it will not comply with the order, choosing to risk heavy penalties instead.
Calling on workers and young people everywhere to show solidarity with dockers, the unions declared: “Ports should be for peace and for peoples, not launch pads for war.”
Diplomacy
Steinmeier seeks to de-escalate German-Chinese tensions on visit
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is seeking to prevent further escalation in tensions during his latest official visit to China.
China remains exceptionally important for key sectors of the German economy. The Asian giant is the second most critical foreign location for German companies.
As reported by German Foreign Policy, investments by these companies in China total over 110 billion euros. By comparison, German investment volumes are higher only in the US and Luxembourg, with investments in Luxembourg largely driven by tax advantages.
German companies also continue to invest in China. In the first half of 2026, they carried out investments of around 5.6 billion euros, surpassing even the 4.3 billion euros invested in the US.
In addition, automotive groups, among others, are increasingly conducting research and development activities in the People’s Republic of China.
According to a recent assessment by an expert from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW), some companies are using this fast-developing country as a “fitness centre”.
At the same time, however, China’s importance as a sales market is declining sharply: German exports to China fell from 107 billion euros in 2022 to just 81 billion euros in 2025.
Above all, China’s exports to Europe and particularly to Germany are surging, threatening to erode the market share of the flagship sectors of German industry on their domestic market, especially automotive, mechanical engineering, and the chemical industry.
EU prepares moves against China
The EU is responding with defensive measures, but this remains a sensitive issue.
Should China retaliate, it could cause severe damage, particularly to German industry, given its substantial presence in the country.
In October 2024, Brussels imposed high tariffs on electric car imports. As Chinese manufacturers subsequently began exporting hybrid models to Europe on a large scale, debate quickly emerged over introducing high tariffs on these vehicles as well.
Meanwhile, measures targeting machinery and chemical imports are also being prepared, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at the latest EU summit held in Brussels in mid-October.
The EU is additionally working on a package known as the “second-strike instrument”. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron recently called for the deployment of this mechanism in a joint letter to the Commission.
The objective of this tool is to enable robust measures in situations of intense economic power struggles, including the partial or even total exclusion of third-country companies from the EU single market within just a few days.
Under the proposal, the European Commission would be able to decide on such measures on its own initiative. In that scenario, member states insisting on the adoption of the measures would reportedly be less easily identifiable, allowing them to hope to avoid Chinese retaliation.
Hybrid vehicle compromise
According to German Foreign Policy, doubts about whether the EU could survive an open economic war against China rest on solid ground.
In mid-June, the Financial Times reported that experts from think tanks and academia had simulated escalating economic clashes between the two sides in a tabletop exercise.
In that simulation, Brussels failed to bring Beijing to its knees; on the contrary, it would probably have lost an open economic war.
Against this backdrop, the EU agreed to settle the dispute over Chinese hybrid car imports through negotiations.
A few days before the mid-October EU summit, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič managed to outline such a resolution during talks in Beijing with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.
Under the agreement, the volume of hybrid cars exported from China to the EU, which stood at around 302,000 units in 2025, will be capped from December at an annual 350,000 units; more precisely, 350,000 units plus 6% per year.
This arrangement is envisaged to remain in effect for four years, granting EU carmakers some breathing space to catch up with their Chinese rivals.
Similar arrangements are being discussed in mechanical engineering and the chemical industry, as well as potentially in pharmaceuticals.
China counter-moves: Export controls
While the EU pursues this track and prepares its economic “second-strike instrument”, the People’s Republic of China is taking steps to secure leverage in current economic power struggles.
These measures are directed primarily at a potential escalation of the economic war with the US, which is currently more or less frozen, but in a worst-case scenario they could also be deployed against the EU.
Specifically, Beijing is preparing new export controls that go beyond the restrictions on rare earth elements with which China succeeded in blunting an unprecedented US tariff and sanctions offensive.
As reported early last week, the People’s Republic of China plans to subject exports of roughly 40 technologies, spanning artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and photovoltaics, to strict licensing conditions, or even prohibit them outright.
The stated rationale is that the country merely wishes to take steps to “safeguard national security”, in an overt mirror of the primary justification invoked by the US for a wide array of embargo measures.
With critical technologies subject to restricted export or barred entirely, relocating the production of certain goods such as photovoltaic cells away from China to foreign locations will become harder, a shift that could also affect European firms.
Steinmeier visits China: Can he defuse tensions?
Against this background, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in China on Monday for his latest official visit.
On the first day of his trip, Steinmeier visited the Volkswagen Group facility in the metropolis of Hefei.
Volkswagen operates a research centre there employing around 3,000 engineers, designed to keep pace with the rapid development of electric mobility in the People’s Republic of China.
Innovations developed in Hefei are transferred at times to facilities in Germany, helping prevent them from falling further behind internationally.
Hefei has transformed into a high-tech hub on the back of heavy investment in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles.
VW plans to supply Central Asian and particularly South-East Asian markets from its Chinese facilities to preserve competitiveness across these regions.
Marking the Federal President’s trip, the Office of the Federal President stated that the goal was not “decoupling from China”, but rather sustaining “close and resilient economic relations”.
According to reports, Steinmeier coordinated not only with Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is currently visiting Japan, but also with EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who is pursuing robust trade policy alignment with the People’s Republic of China in line with German industrial interests.
Steinmeier is eager to support this effort and is accompanied notably by Peter Leibinger, president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI).
The president will then travel to Beijing to hold talks with top leaders, including his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, before concluding his visit.
His office noted that the visit seeks to “address Germany’s multifaceted and complex relations with China and the challenges confronting them”, while his time in Anhui will highlight “China at the turn of the century around 1900 and the significance of this era in the history of German-Chinese relations”.
According to the South China Morning Post, the selection of Anhui underscores Berlin’s emphasis on dialogue despite deteriorating bilateral ties amid rising trade tensions, driven by German concerns that fierce Chinese competition could erode Germany’s manufacturing core.
German leader’s packed China itinerary
Before heading to Beijing, Steinmeier will also visit the historic village of Hongcun and Mount Huangshan, sites that the German presidency noted bring together “nature, architecture, and philosophy”.
In the capital, Steinmeier will tour the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences to evaluate climate cooperation, followed by an address at Peking University. Xi is subsequently expected to receive him with full military honours.
Visiting leaders’ regional engagements extend well beyond Anhui, with China’s financial capital, Shanghai, remaining one of the most sought-after stops.
In January alone, the city hosted South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while a visit in August by King Abdullah II of Jordan further cemented Shanghai’s standing as a gateway to Chinese technology and consumer markets.
Just south of Shanghai, Hangzhou has emerged as a similarly vital diplomatic destination. Once renowned primarily for the classical scenery of West Lake, the capital of Zhejiang province has evolved into an innovation hub drawing foreign heads of state with itineraries centred on robotics, e-commerce, and advanced manufacturing.
Diplomacy
Ukraine plans new business model to end street recruitment drives
The Ukrainian government is preparing a new mobilization model that fundamentally alters military deferrals, requiring businesses to systematically supply personnel to the armed forces in exchange for shielding other employees from service.
Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskiy announced that under the draft framework, which is scheduled for completion by 1 December, enterprises will pledge to send a designated quota of staff into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to secure exemptions for remaining workers.
Speaking at the Kyiv International Economic Forum, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, Prime Minister Koretskiy said the objective is to end the practice of drafting men off the streets.
Describing the projected structure as an idealistic social contract, Koretskiy said: “Let us establish a social model where employees are safeguarded, but businesses also commit to providing a predictable flow of mobilization for the military. If we can devise such a formula, the necessity of searching for people on the streets will also be eliminated.”
Koretskiy noted that deferrals will be renewed for over 90% to 95% of staff in critical sectors such as fuel, energy, and the defence industry. He emphasized that the criteria defining an enterprise as critical will be decoupled from economic exemption standards.
The prime minister stated that this regulatory change will curb unjustified deferrals, prevent an economic collapse, and bring certainty to the rotation expectations of soldiers serving on the front lines.
In separate remarks delivered the previous week, Koretskiy noted that the government intends to preserve exemption rights for companies that sustain national defence capacity and vital everyday services, while simultaneously increasing criminal penalties for unauthorized absence from military units and draft evasion.
Immediately following these statements, the official resolution overhauling the mobilization deferral system was published on the Ukrainian government website.
According to details reported by the UNIAN news agency, state institutions and regional administrations will review existing criteria and audit every business previously granted “critical” status within 10 days of the regulation entering into force.
Enterprises that no longer satisfy exemption conditions or whose justifications have lapsed may have the status rescinded prematurely.
A new coordination centre is being established to administer the process. This body will issue advisory decisions regarding the granting or revoking of critical enterprise status, as well as requests to raise exemption quotas.
The bureaucratic procedure limits the initial review to a maximum of 7 working days, after which the coordination centre will have up to one month to assess the file. A final decision must then be rendered within 3 working days of the recommendation reaching the commission.
For select enterprises operating in the energy and defence sectors, the ceiling for staff exemptions has been capped at 95%. However, this entitlement will apply strictly to personnel directly engaged in production processes.
Authority to raise the exemption quota above the 95% threshold will depend entirely on special approval issued by either the Ukrainian Defence Ministry or the Energy Ministry.
The compliance history of company leadership will directly influence the procedure; quota increase requests may be rejected outright if executives have violated military registration requirements two or more times in the preceding 12 months, or if they have received administrative fines on those grounds.
Companies granted quota increases will have 10 working days to conclude the required formalities.
If an enterprise fails to formalize worker deferrals through Diia, Ukraine’s digital public services portal, within this timeframe, the supplemental quota allocation will be revoked entirely. All approved exemption quotas will remain valid for a maximum duration of one year.
Martial law and general mobilization, which were declared in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, have been extended at regular intervals ever since.
On 26 October, the Ukrainian parliament renewed these measures for the 21st time, approving a 90-day extension that runs until 29 January 2027.
Under current legislation, men aged between 25 and 60 who are deemed fit for military service are directly subject to mobilization.
Men under the age of 25 are classified under conscription call-up status and are not dispatched to the front line through general mobilization.
Individuals in this age bracket retain the right to travel abroad between the ages of 18 and 22 via an age-based exception, but they lose this entitlement upon turning 23.
Front-line manpower deficits have long prompted authorities in Kyiv to pursue reforms to the military recruitment framework and to tighten deferral requirements.
The Defence Ministry announced in February that extensive measures were planned, including the automation of deferral procedures and adjustments to the operations of Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centres (TZK), which function as enlistment offices.
In April, Member of Parliament Roman Kostenko stated that the ministry planned to separate the recruitment duties of draft centres from their social assistance responsibilities, while the possibility of transferring certain mobilization enforcement checks to the police was also raised.
By August, Kostenko reported that the Defence Ministry was examining radical measures, including potential alterations to the mobilization age.
Shortly before that, Minister of Digital Transformation Oksana Ferchuk announced that oversight over exemptions, particularly in the information technology sector, would be significantly restricted.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military’s requirement for front-line reinforcements grows on a daily basis.
In an assessment delivered on 31 August, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov stressed that the military must enlist at least 30,000 individuals each month to sustain its combat effectiveness.
As forced mobilization for the front lines accelerates, objections to heavy-handed practices by recruitment centre personnel have multiplied.
Official complaints concerning draft office personnel stood at just 18 in 2022, before surging to 514 in 2023 and 3,312 in 2024. The influx of grievances continued unabated, peaking at 6,127 official complaints according to 2025 figures.
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