Diplomacy
A multipolar world is rising, US hegemony must end, says Prof. Ulrike Guérot
Editor’s note: Renowned German political scientist Prof. Ulrike Guérot delivered the keynote address at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26-27, assessing the fault lines of global geopolitics. In this inaugural gathering, organized jointly by Harici Media and the European Transcontinental Initiative (ETI), Guérot called for peace, justice, and multipolarity in the face of the spiraling conflict looming over the world. Arguing that Europe’s current technocratic and Atlanticist orientation has severed the continent from its historical roots, the thinker stressed that an independent security architecture -one that does not exclude Russia- is essential.
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Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
Distinguished Guests,
Dear Participants,
It is my great honour and my genuine pleasure to welcome you, on behalf of the Turkish media platform Harici and the European Transcontinental Initiative, to the first Istanbul East-West Forum.
My warm thanks go to my committed colleague and friend Tunç Akkoç and to his entire team, who took the initiative to create this forum and to bring this new international format to life here in Istanbul — a city that has been, for centuries, the bridge between East and West.
With the East-West Forum, we want to build a platform for the global critical community. For all those who still believe in peace, at a moment when the world stands at the edge of a third world war. For all those who wish to shape the twenty-first century in the pursuit of peace, justice and equality for all people — as Immanuel Kant envisioned it in his essay on perpetual peace already. And for all those who still believe in the Charter of the United Nations, which preserves, like a jewel, the promise first declared in 1789: that all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.
More than two centuries later, it is time to move closer to that goal. And the world of the twenty-first century has every resource it needs to do so.
What is missing
What is missing today is not energy. Not food. Not communication. Not resources. All of this exists.
Discourses of scarcity are neo-feudal discourses — the language of those who do not wish to share.
Buddhist, Muslim and Christian traditions all know a deeper truth: where there is abundance, abundance will grow. That is what we believe here in Istanbul — here, on the bridge, at the crossroads of cultures.
What is missing today is diplomacy. Wisdom. Political will. And love.
And we hope that this signal goes out from Istanbul today — into the world’s press, on the very day the UN General Assembly closes:
Yes, a different world order is possible.
Yes, US-hegemony can and must come to an end.
Yes, peace can be achieved.
Yes, global war can be avoided.
Yes, a multipolar world is emerging — and fortunately so.
Yes, the world will survive the end of what we used to call “the West.”
Yes, the so-called „rules-based order“ has proven hollow — and the international community can return to the rules of the UN Charter.
Today, we send these greetings from Istanbul to New York. We are here to think about the international order of the twenty-first century, and to search for alternatives to the status quo.
The state of the world
This will not be easy. The international order, as you all know, is in disarray.
Even as we speak, we are witnessing wars in the plural. Struggles over resources. The seizure of countries and territories. And, above all, a situation in Gaza that UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has called unbearable.
The world will not forget what Israel is doing there. And we all follow the case brought by South Africa before the International Court of Justice.
Let me quote Nelson Mandela: “We know too well that our freedom is incomplete without the freedom of the Palestinians.”
Alongside these tectonic shifts in the international system, we are living through a change of paradigms on several levels at once.
There is the end of the liberal order.
There is artificial intelligence and robotics, which raise the question of the survival of our species, and which reveal the hubris of transhumanism — of homo deus.
And there is the ambition to conquer Mars, as though this earth, the one globe we all share, were not good enough for us — if only we took proper care of it. That is, why I am personally very sad that the Vatican, this year, finally could not send a representative to the East-West Forum, because Pope Leo XIV has put down inspiring thoughts on all this in his recent Encyclic Magnifica Humanitas.
A European voice
Now, as the person who has the honour of opening this first East-West Forum, allow me a few words as a European citizen.
Many years ago, I worked for Jacques Delors, President of the European Commission from 1985 to 1995 — a man who, together with François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl, sought a peaceful, democratic and social European Union. Delors was a socialist, a Catholic and a trade unionist.
The Europe he imagined has today been distorted beyond recognition. And that is a tragedy — not only for Europe, but for the world.
I speak here for the many European citizens who do not want war with Russia. Who no longer wish to be instrumentalised for US-American geostrategic interests that are suicidal for the European continent. Who still hold to the vision codified in the Charter of Paris of 1990: a European security architecture with Russia.
Who still dream of a politically united Europe — not one highjacked by narrow or vengeful interests of a High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, that do not reflect the interests of 450 million European citizens. These 450 million are tired of ridiculous false flag operation like at Leipzig airport and the limpid effort to pull NATO countries into the Ukrainian war that even Ukrainians want to end soon.
And those citizens do not wish to see an ever more technocratic Union drift toward authoritarian habits — placing critical voices on extra-legal EU-sanction lists, and dragging the continent of the Enlightenment back toward the dark Middle Ages.
Allow me also a word as a German citizen.
I stand for the silent majority of German citizens that are bewildered that critical infrastructure on our territory can be destroyed by a country that used to be our friend and partner— and that our government has nothing to say about it.
These Germans are equally shocked that our government still supports Volodymyr Zelensky, who is – and I quote Marsha Havrishko‘s recent peace on Substack here – „The Jewish Face of a far-right Renaissance in Ukraine”, which I recommend you all to read.[1] This silent – or silenced – majority of German citizens is disgusted that the government of the one country that is responsible for the Shoa of the last century is today supporting facistoid and racist behavior and military actions of the Ukrainian and Israeli Governments. It is not within my power to do so. But if it were, I would apologize for it!
Why we are here
My personal aim, when I founded the Istanbul East-West Forum together with Tunç Akkoç and Harici, was to bring together some of the most brilliant and independent minds in the world to help us Europeans to overcome the maelstrom of the current nihilism, that reigns in EU-Europe. I do quote my beloved French poet Rimbaud: Qui ne peut pas construire, doit détruire. As things stand, Europe seems unable to find a face-saving way to play a constructive role in ending the war in Ukraine. And so it prefers escalation: in order not to face its own guilt, its own failure, its own political weakness.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please understand: this EU-Europe is dangerous — not because of its strength, but because of a weakness it cannot admit, and a nihilism that may suck it into self-destruction.
The European Transcontinental Initiative, which I founded together with Hauke Ritz and Isabell Casel — both of whom will moderate a panel today — therefore has two mottos:
Shaping Europe beyond the EU and
Shaping Europe for a multipolar world.
A Europe that moderates between East and West. And obviously, in this Europe, Türkiye -because today we are in Türkiye- has an important role to play! We want you to know that many, that most European citizens dream of this! A Europe that emancipates from the EU, from NATO and from the US, precisely to be ready for a multipolar world. Please, help us shaping this Europe!
How we will work
Today we will discuss four themes in four panels.
A request to our panelists: please be brief, be precise, and please stay close to the catalogue of questions we sent you. We aim at a highly structured conference, because we intend to publish our findings — and to build next year’s agenda on them.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the East-West Forum is here to stay!
From now on, we will meet every year, on the third weekend of September, in Istanbul. So please, already mark the dates in your calendars.
Designing the twenty-first century will take a great deal of work — conceptual, intellectual and emotional work. One conference will not be enough.
And please do not forget: YOU are not an audience. You are the conference.
Tomorrow morning, we will need you. Around this forum we want to build a network: a publication schedule, working groups, a business council to help fund the coming years, an academic advisory board, and a group of media partners.
With your networks, your channels, your ideas, your research, your writings and your contacts — all of us together are the Istanbul East-West Forum.
So please: be engaged. Be demanding. And help us make this forum larger, stronger and more visible in the years to come.
Thank you for your presence. Thank you all for being here!
[1] The article can be found on Substack here: https://martahavryshko.substack.com/p/volodymyr-zelensky-the-jewish-face
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
Diplomacy
IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.
Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.
In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”
Tenreyro added:
“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.
Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.
US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.
This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.
Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.
Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.
The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.
However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.
The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.
The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.
According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.
These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.
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