Political earthquake in Japan: Leadership race begins in LDP

Following major defeats in the House of Councillors elections after the House of Representatives elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on Sunday, September 7, unable to withstand the intense pressure to step down from within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Having lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the LDP-Komeito government will now move past the debate over who is responsible for this defeat and focus on building a new political system. However, establishing a system that will allow them to remain in power appears more difficult than ever. As the situation within the LDP becomes increasingly complex, some factions argue that the party’s future should be entrusted not to popular figures like Sanae Takaichi or Shinjiro Koizumi, but to lesser-known politicians.

The Ishiba–Koizumi Meeting

The expected outcome in political circles was once again quite dramatic. Some veteran Japanese journalists had predicted that Prime Minister Ishiba would resign before the special presidential election scheduled for the 8th. The fact that more than 120 LDP lawmakers called for an emergency election and nearly half of the prefectural assemblies took a similar stance indicated that his resignation was inevitable.

The Ishiba–Koizumi meeting, which took place at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence on the evening of September 6, determined the course of events. Ishiba held two-hour meetings, first with Vice President Yoshihide Suga and then with Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. According to sources, Koizumi tried to persuade Ishiba by stating that the majority of the public wanted a presidential election, saying, “If the conflict continues, the LDP will surely split. You need to resign to maintain party unity.”

“The Same Faces Involved in the Resignation Drama,” Just Like Four Years Ago

These developments create a sense of déjà vu from four years ago. On August 31, 2021, Koizumi had persuaded then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga during a similar crisis, forcing him to change his election strategy. At that time, Suga was facing the risk of losing the presidential election, and to resolve the situation, Hiroyuki Moriyama, Chairman of the National Diet Affairs Committee (now Secretary-General), urged him to dissolve the Diet. Perhaps Koizumi’s persuasion efforts were effective, as Suga withdrew his bid for re-election and announced his resignation.

After the announcement, Koizumi met with Suga and told reporters in tears:

“I am very grateful.”

Meanwhile, Koizumi did not run in the LDP presidential election at that time, instead supporting Taro Kono along with Ishiba. Ishiba also decided not to run, and for this reason, the pair was dubbed the “Koishi-Kawa Alliance.” Kono later distanced himself from the coalition, but the “Koishi” alliance remains alive and strong. Looking at the drama surrounding this resignation announcement, it is clear that the same actors—Ishiba, Koizumi, Suga, and Moriyama—are involved, and the script so far is almost identical to that of four years ago.

However, the critical question this time is: Will Koizumi move from a supporting role to the lead?

Taro Aso’s Power and Reckoning

Another key factor that will determine the outcome of the presidential election is whether former Prime Minister Taro Aso (the party’s Vice President), one of the central figures in the camp that brought down Ishiba, will be able to lead in political affairs.

Aso holds a deep-seated animosity towards Ishiba. When the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the 2007 House of Councillors elections, Ishiba harshly criticized then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was trying to stay in office, and called for his resignation.

Aso, an ally of Abe, was angered and said that someone who had once left the LDP had no right to say such a thing. Moreover, in 2009, as Aso was struggling with declining approval ratings following the Lehman Shock, it was Ishiba who publicly called for his resignation, despite still being a member of Aso’s cabinet.

In last year’s LDP presidential election, driven by his animosity for Ishiba, he supported Takaichi at the last minute in the second round of voting. Even when efforts to oust Ishiba emerged after the House of Councillors elections, he was more determined than even the members of the former Abe faction implicated in illegal funds.

Some younger LDP members were shocked by Aso’s attempt to mobilize the only remaining faction within the party to overthrow Prime Minister Ishiba. Some say it is a sign of an old man’s single-mindedness or a delusion.

It is uncertain whether Aso will be able to maintain his influence within the LDP going forward.

The Rise and Uncertainty of Sanae Takaichi

Sanae Takaichi, who gained prominence with the support of Shinzo Abe in last year’s LDP presidential election, narrowly lost to Ishiba in the second round. Now, with Ishiba’s resignation, Takaichi has once again become a strong candidate. However, her base within the party is weakening, especially since half of the lawmakers who supported her have withdrawn from politics due to slush fund scandals.

Furthermore, the rise of the People’s Party and the Conservative Party of Japan is drawing some of Takaichi’s hard-right supporters to these new forces. Although she still ranks high in public opinion polls, it is noteworthy that in some surveys, she lags behind Koizumi and even Ishiba.

Potential Candidates After Ishiba

The LDP’s loss of its majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament] makes it imperative for the new leader to be a pragmatic figure capable of negotiating with opposition parties. The prominent candidates include:

• Yoshimasa Hayashi – Chief Cabinet Secretary, an experienced moderate conservative. He has good relations with the opposition. He is seen within the party as a “colorless, transparent, and risk-free” candidate.
• Katsunobu Kato – Minister of Finance, has extensive political experience but is not well-known among the public.
• Takeshi Saito – Former Minister of International Trade and Industry, a figure who stands out for his practical skills.
• Shinjiro Koizumi – Highly popular, but his youth and lack of experience raise questions.
• Sanae Takaichi – Although her public support is strong, the internal party dynamics could pose a challenge for her.
• Takayuki Kobayashi – Considered one of the LDP’s “promising young” faces.

The format of the election is also crucial. If a “full-scale” election is held where party members can vote, the race could be between popular figures like Koizumi, Takaichi, and Kobayashi.

The LDP’s Future and Public Distrust

In the press conference announcing his resignation, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed his regret at having to leave office without achieving his goals. However, his delay in making a decision after the election defeat and the resulting “50-day political vacuum” created disappointment among the public.

For the Japanese people today, the real issue is not the LDP’s internal score-settling, but the establishment of a system that can provide solutions to fundamental problems such as the economy, inflation, energy security, and foreign policy. However, if this process gets bogged down in internal party power struggles, public trust in the LDP will be further eroded. In Ishiba’s own words:

“If the LDP loses the trust of the people, Japanese politics will easily surrender to populism.”

This warning indicates that Japanese politics is heading towards a major turning point in the coming period.