Recent statements made by Turkish officials, mainly by the President Erdogan, about the possibility of an “upper-level dialogue” with the Syrian government, have brought up expectations for the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus.
Syria was on the top agenda, first at the trilateral summit in Tehran in Astana Format between Turkiye, Russia and Iran, then at the Sochi summit where Erdogan and Putin met two weeks later the Tehran Summit. And shortly after the Sochi summit, President Erdogan made statements regarding the improvement of relations with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with the Syrian administration, stating “There is no such thing as resentment in the international politics. You have to be at peace at all times. You have to keep the opportunity to get in contact at any time”.
When the civil war in Syria began with an American-backed provocation in 2011, the AKP government supported the groups that defined as the “opposition”, and then declared they did not recognize the government in Damascus as the legitimate Syrian government. There were high hopes within the AKP politicians that the Bashar al-Assad would be overthrown quickly, however more than 11 years after the war began, Bashar al-Assad remained in power while regaining the control over most parts of Syria especially the areas that were under the control of ISIS. All these high hopes were crushed in the end…
Now the Syrian government demands Turkiye to withdraw from the areas it currently holds, stop supporting the groups under its control, and accelerate the resolution process in Idlib Governorate; Ankara on the other hand, demands the withdrawal and a full control over the PKK/YPG groups, which pose a threat to Turkiye within its own borders. The fastest way to resolve these mutual security demands is only through establishing upper-level relations and a full cooperation. Therefore, it has recently been on the agenda that the relations between Damascus and Ankara could be re-established.
‘Relations will quickly be normalized’
Assessing the recent developments for Harici, Professor at Maltepe University Department of Political Science and International Relations Hasan Unal, told that he was pleased to hear President Erdogan’s recent statements about improving the relations with the Syrian government to a higher level and making a new beginning in bilateral relations. Criticizing the attitude of the Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Unal said “There is something that Cavusoglu keeps insisting on: That is to reconcile between the opposition and the regime, and trying to find a political solution. This demand is quite against Turkiye’s own national interests and may undermine the dialog process”, adding “However, I believe that the relations will quickly be normalized, by the President Erdogan’s own will”.
‘Cavusoglu’s attitude is wrong’
Stating that Cavusoglu insistently used the term “regime” to address the Syrian government, Unal said “This term has become toxic over the last years, and such language could not be used if we really desire to normalize our relations. We would also be disturbed if they referred to us as the “Erdogan regime”. We are talking about a leader and a government elected by the Syrian people themselves. It is not right to use the term regime”.
Emphasizing that Turkiye’s Syrian policy should not be focused on reconciling the Syrian government with the opposition, Professor Hasan Unal stated that the Syrian government should demonstrate their goodwill, with a number of political projects and that Ankara could act in a way that could help the Syrian government in this process.
Referring to the term “political solution” that the Turkish Foreign Minister often uses in his speeches, Unal commented “If you use this term, you would be talking about another side within Syria that is at least as legitimate as the Syrian government itself, and that would not be true. After all, there is the legitimate Syrian government, and some groups that have rebelled against it”. Underlining that it is out of the question for the groups in Idlib to be defended by Turkiye, Unal stated that there are political projects in Syria’s for the other rebel groups such as a national amnesty etc.
The three main agendas Turkiye should put forward
Professor Hasan Unal has listed three main agendas that Turkiye should forward regarding Syria, as following:
- Returning of the temporary refugees: We should report all the names and other identities that sought refuge in our country, and Syria should report back from which regions these groups come from, and a possible schedule for their return back home. And the refugees who cannot be returned to their original homes, are to be directed to the Syrian government’s responsibility. They can be subjected to a temporary settlement and then sent to their original home addresses.
‘We should update the Adana Memorandum’
- Our second aim should be towards updating and re-implementing the Adana Memorandum. PKK was specifically included in the previous memorandum, and now the YPG and other PKK-affiliates should be added to the updated memorandum. Turkiye may also demand Russia to be a signatory to the memorandum, in order to establish a full trust. Terrorist organizations such as the PKK, YPG, etc. could be included in this agreement, and Russia can also add the terrorist organizations it deems as a threat, and a mutual trust will be built.
‘Russia would recognize the TRNC if we could reach an agreement with Damascus’
- We should demand Syria to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), during the gradual handover of the territories currently controlled by Turkiye, back to Syria. Turkiye can also reach an agreement with Russia on TRNC’s recognition. A peace in Syria would crown Russia’s geopolitical efforts. Turkiye is in a position that is able to demand this from Russia in return for Turkiye’s careful policies in Ukraine. Russian-Greek relations are rough more than ever before, while a two-state solution in Cyprus is completely in Russia’s own favor. In a one-state solution, the entirety of the island of Cyprus would become EU territory, Turkiye would shift more towards the Western camp, and the island of Cyprus would be a full member of NATO. Such a solution on the island definitely cannot serve Russia’s national interests, that is why if Turkiye goes to a solution in accordance with its own interests regarding Syria, Russia could also be asked for diplomatic recognition of the TRNC.
