Middle East
Professor Hasan Unal: ‘We can get Northern Cyprus recognized, if we agree with Syria’
Recent statements made by Turkish officials, mainly by the President Erdogan, about the possibility of an “upper-level dialogue” with the Syrian government, have brought up expectations for the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus.
Syria was on the top agenda, first at the trilateral summit in Tehran in Astana Format between Turkiye, Russia and Iran, then at the Sochi summit where Erdogan and Putin met two weeks later the Tehran Summit. And shortly after the Sochi summit, President Erdogan made statements regarding the improvement of relations with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with the Syrian administration, stating “There is no such thing as resentment in the international politics. You have to be at peace at all times. You have to keep the opportunity to get in contact at any time”.
When the civil war in Syria began with an American-backed provocation in 2011, the AKP government supported the groups that defined as the “opposition”, and then declared they did not recognize the government in Damascus as the legitimate Syrian government. There were high hopes within the AKP politicians that the Bashar al-Assad would be overthrown quickly, however more than 11 years after the war began, Bashar al-Assad remained in power while regaining the control over most parts of Syria especially the areas that were under the control of ISIS. All these high hopes were crushed in the end…
Now the Syrian government demands Turkiye to withdraw from the areas it currently holds, stop supporting the groups under its control, and accelerate the resolution process in Idlib Governorate; Ankara on the other hand, demands the withdrawal and a full control over the PKK/YPG groups, which pose a threat to Turkiye within its own borders. The fastest way to resolve these mutual security demands is only through establishing upper-level relations and a full cooperation. Therefore, it has recently been on the agenda that the relations between Damascus and Ankara could be re-established.
‘Relations will quickly be normalized’
Assessing the recent developments for Harici, Professor at Maltepe University Department of Political Science and International Relations Hasan Unal, told that he was pleased to hear President Erdogan’s recent statements about improving the relations with the Syrian government to a higher level and making a new beginning in bilateral relations. Criticizing the attitude of the Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Unal said “There is something that Cavusoglu keeps insisting on: That is to reconcile between the opposition and the regime, and trying to find a political solution. This demand is quite against Turkiye’s own national interests and may undermine the dialog process”, adding “However, I believe that the relations will quickly be normalized, by the President Erdogan’s own will”.
‘Cavusoglu’s attitude is wrong’
Stating that Cavusoglu insistently used the term “regime” to address the Syrian government, Unal said “This term has become toxic over the last years, and such language could not be used if we really desire to normalize our relations. We would also be disturbed if they referred to us as the “Erdogan regime”. We are talking about a leader and a government elected by the Syrian people themselves. It is not right to use the term regime”.
Emphasizing that Turkiye’s Syrian policy should not be focused on reconciling the Syrian government with the opposition, Professor Hasan Unal stated that the Syrian government should demonstrate their goodwill, with a number of political projects and that Ankara could act in a way that could help the Syrian government in this process.
Referring to the term “political solution” that the Turkish Foreign Minister often uses in his speeches, Unal commented “If you use this term, you would be talking about another side within Syria that is at least as legitimate as the Syrian government itself, and that would not be true. After all, there is the legitimate Syrian government, and some groups that have rebelled against it”. Underlining that it is out of the question for the groups in Idlib to be defended by Turkiye, Unal stated that there are political projects in Syria’s for the other rebel groups such as a national amnesty etc.
The three main agendas Turkiye should put forward
Professor Hasan Unal has listed three main agendas that Turkiye should forward regarding Syria, as following:
- Returning of the temporary refugees: We should report all the names and other identities that sought refuge in our country, and Syria should report back from which regions these groups come from, and a possible schedule for their return back home. And the refugees who cannot be returned to their original homes, are to be directed to the Syrian government’s responsibility. They can be subjected to a temporary settlement and then sent to their original home addresses.
‘We should update the Adana Memorandum’
- Our second aim should be towards updating and re-implementing the Adana Memorandum. PKK was specifically included in the previous memorandum, and now the YPG and other PKK-affiliates should be added to the updated memorandum. Turkiye may also demand Russia to be a signatory to the memorandum, in order to establish a full trust. Terrorist organizations such as the PKK, YPG, etc. could be included in this agreement, and Russia can also add the terrorist organizations it deems as a threat, and a mutual trust will be built.
‘Russia would recognize the TRNC if we could reach an agreement with Damascus’
- We should demand Syria to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), during the gradual handover of the territories currently controlled by Turkiye, back to Syria. Turkiye can also reach an agreement with Russia on TRNC’s recognition. A peace in Syria would crown Russia’s geopolitical efforts. Turkiye is in a position that is able to demand this from Russia in return for Turkiye’s careful policies in Ukraine. Russian-Greek relations are rough more than ever before, while a two-state solution in Cyprus is completely in Russia’s own favor. In a one-state solution, the entirety of the island of Cyprus would become EU territory, Turkiye would shift more towards the Western camp, and the island of Cyprus would be a full member of NATO. Such a solution on the island definitely cannot serve Russia’s national interests, that is why if Turkiye goes to a solution in accordance with its own interests regarding Syria, Russia could also be asked for diplomatic recognition of the TRNC.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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