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US drafts post-war Middle East strategy focused on Iran

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The US administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on containing Iran and expanding the normalisation of relations between Israel and its neighbours.

According to Axios, although the plan remains in the draft stage, it is intended to guide the US approach to the Middle East once the war with Iran concludes and across the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office.

Two major events cast a shadow over the planning process: the Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October and the US midterm elections in November.

US officials state that initial work on the strategy is being conducted both at senior political levels within the Trump administration and at an interagency working level.

According to sources, Trump has held two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks where the plan was discussed and concepts were floated.

In private conversations, Trump reportedly said he is working on “something much bigger” in the Middle East following the war with Iran.

According to sources, three primary elements have been put forward as prospective components of the strategy:

Establishing a regional alliance among US allies, guaranteed by the US, in order to contain Iran.

Pursuing a joint effort to bring the regional fallout of the 7 October 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation toward a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, signing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.

Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Trump administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the 27 October elections will be willing and able to cooperate on the post-war strategy.

However, some US officials emphasise that Trump will push for the implementation of this strategy regardless of the Israeli election results, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.

A source familiar with the process stated that drafting the strategy would take several more weeks. “They are working on it, but it is not finished yet,” the source said, adding:

“The aim here is to connect many moving parts in the region; how to build a regional alliance after the war. It is not yet clear whether all US allies in the region will participate in this process.”

Diplomacy

Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle

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US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.

White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.

“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”

In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.

According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.

The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.

Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.

“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”

Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.

Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.

These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.

Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.

In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.

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IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.

Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.

However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.

In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”

Tenreyro added:

“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.

Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.

US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.

This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.

Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.

Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.

The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.

However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.

The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.

The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.

According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.

These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.

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