Diplomacy
US expands military footprint in Somalia with new Bosaso base
US military drones commenced reconnaissance flights over the Al-Miskad mountains in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region shortly after sunset on 3 September.
Speaking to news outlet Drop Site, Puntland security officials said surveillance targeted the Togga Miraale and Togga Baalade areas, identified by local authorities as strongholds of Islamic State militants.
Officials reported that the drones identified suspected Islamic State fighters travelling by donkey cart in the Togga Baalade area, prompting airstrikes at around 20:30.
Conducted concurrently with reconnaissance operations over the Al-Madow mountains in the Sanaag region, where Al-Shabaab maintains a presence, the operation concluded a period of relative calm in US strikes across Somalia.
US Africa Command (AFRICOM), which oversees US military operations in Somalia, did not respond to requests for comment. However, Puntland security officials noted that they expect US air operations in the country to intensify further in the foreseeable future.
At the centre of this military expansion lies a new US military base planned for the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso, which was announced last month.
While local officials maintain that US air support is indispensable in combatting the Islamic State, American operations across the region have drawn criticism over the deaths and displacement of thousands of civilians.
Situated on the Gulf of Aden, through which roughly 25% of global maritime traffic passes, Bosaso has a population of 1 million and serves as a critical human smuggling corridor for East African migrants moving towards Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula.
The area is emerging as the focal point of a US initiative to militarise one of the world’s most strategic maritime routes. On land, intense combat between US-backed Puntland regional forces and Islamic State militants has continued in the Al-Miskad mountains for nearly two years.
The US administration characterises the arid, mountainous terrain of northern Somalia as the central hub from which the Islamic State directs its global operations.
Security sources in Puntland stated that Washington is de facto expanding its military footprint by constructing a new base in Bosaso, which will be utilised directly for combat, reconnaissance, and maritime security operations.
Officials emphasised that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) would also expand its regional footprint.
Agreement signed behind closed doors
An AFRICOM delegation headed by special operations commander Major General Claude Tudor met Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni in Bosaso on 2 August.
Following the meeting, the presidency of the semi-autonomous region, which is nominally subordinate to the central government in Mogadishu, announced in an official communiqué that a new memorandum of understanding had been reached.
The statement noted that the US would expand its military base in Bosaso to enhance counter-terrorism operations and safeguard maritime security.
However, five separate Puntland security officials who spoke to Drop Site argued that the official announcement distorted the true nature of the agreement.
Noting that the US had never previously possessed a military base in Bosaso, officials stated that the existing presence consisted solely of an “office” operated as an intelligence centre by AFRICOM and the CIA. Under the new project, a military installation will be established in the region from scratch.
Under current arrangements, AFRICOM personnel stationed at the Bosaso office provide liaison between Puntland ground forces and the command’s primary headquarters in neighbouring Djibouti whenever air support is required.
Officials noted that once the new base being built on the grounds of Bosaso Airport is completed, the US will conduct airstrikes and combat sorties directly from the city.
Security sources said most Somali delegation members photographed at the 2 August signing ceremony were unaware of the agreement’s details, explaining that the outline of the accord had been finalised during a secret meeting between Deni and the AFRICOM delegation in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on 27 July.
“The Americans walked into the room, pulled out the draft, and the text was signed by Deni. Everything had already been cooked up in Addis Ababa,” one official said.
The CIA as “Big Brother” and covert transfers
US airstrikes in Somalia reached record levels under Donald Trump. Having ordered an operation against a senior Islamic State target in Somalia shortly after taking office, the Trump administration conducted 205 airstrikes in the country, according to data compiled by think tank New America. Direct hits on Islamic State targets accounted for 53% of those operations.
The Islamic State network in Somalia was formed in 2015 when British-Somali cleric Abdiqadir Mumin and affiliated militants broke away from Al-Shabaab to pledge allegiance to the group.
After holding the Gulf of Aden coastal town of Qandala for 38 days in 2016, the group retreated into the Al-Miskad mountains. Over time, it evolved into an organisation in which foreign fighters, primarily from Ethiopia and other regional states, formed the majority.
Puntland security officials stated that CIA personnel in Bosaso interrogate captured high-ranking foreign Islamic State operatives and exert unquestioned authority over decisions, acting like a “big brother”.
Officials said Abdiweli Mohamed Yusuf (Abdiweli Walalac), the financial chief of the group’s Somali wing who was placed under sanctions by the US Department of the Treasury in 2019, was interrogated at this office following his capture and covertly transferred to Djibouti the next day.
Concealing himself among local Bedouins in the rural Xumbeys area of the Bari region, Abdiweli was captured on 25 July last year in a helicopter raid conducted by the Puntland Intelligence and Security Agency (PISA) alongside US elements.
Officials stressed that the operation, previously presented to the public as “US-backed”, was directly controlled on the ground by American forces, with air cover also provided personally by the US.
New local strike force under formation
It has emerged that the Bosaso agreement is not limited to air operations, but also provides for the US to establish a new local strike force to conduct counter-terrorism missions in the region.
Although troop numbers have not yet been finalised, the force’s salaries, equipment, and military training will be entirely funded by the US.
Washington has pursued similar military structures in Somalia in the past. Established after 11 September, the Puntland Security Force (PSF), which saw US support cut in 2020, faced accusations of involvement in civilian casualties and clashes within populated settlements. Under Barack Obama, “Danab” (Lightning), an elite unit established to fight Al-Shabaab across southern and central Somalia, was equipped directly by the US.
During an 18-month offensive across the Al-Miskad mountains in Bari province, the group was reportedly pushed back significantly, with at least two-thirds of slain militants killed directly in US airstrikes.
Nevertheless, local sources reported that Islamic State pockets persist in the rugged mountain terrain, which they compared to Afghanistan’s “Tora Bora”, while displaced civilians remain unable to return to their villages because of bombings and looting.
Base construction in Bosaso also raises grave constitutional disputes under Somali law. Under the Somali constitution, the authority to conclude military agreements with foreign states rests exclusively with the federal central government in Mogadishu.
The Somali Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Information did not respond to questions regarding whether they were briefed in advance on the military accord signed between the Puntland administration and the US.
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
Diplomacy
IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.
Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.
In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”
Tenreyro added:
“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.
Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.
US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.
This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.
Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.
Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.
The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.
However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.
The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.
The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.
According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.
These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.
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