Refer again to UAE

Taliban’s Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani accompanied by Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of Taliban intelligence, had once again traveled to the United Arab Emirates, and according to the sources, the trip served multiple objectives. Both the officials seemed to be meeting for the second time with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of this country. These two Taliban officials went again on an unexpected trip to the UAE and made news because compared to other Taliban officials, they travel less to nearby countries. So far, Haqqani has only made an open trip to the UAE and Wasiq is also part of these trips.

The return of Trump in White House – concern for the Taliban

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States, is not without influence on the trip of these two Taliban officials in the UAE. To be honest, Trump’s personality type is such that his return has worried even his allies. Look at Israel – an ally that was impatiently waiting for Trump’s return, but now the country is watching the events around with fear. Even if the Taliban are happy with his return, they still cannot be indifferent to everything.

What has added to the concern of the Taliban are Trump’s statements mixed with warning – stop sending money and withdraw military equipment. Even if he does not fulfill these two promises, he has disturbed the peaceful sleep of the Taliban. Worse, if the story of his possible support for the opposition forces of the Taliban gets hotter, the Taliban will not sleep peacefully. As we know, the UAE is one of America’s key allies in the Middle East. More importantly, Al Nahyan is Trump’s favorite – the popularity that led to the recognition of Israel by Abu Dhabi.

The current president of the United States also signed a contract for the sale of 50 F35 fighters with the UAE, but Joe Biden, the previous president, did not implement it. This is despite the fact that only Israel has this type of American fighter. It is clear from Haqqani’s travels that his words are important to Abu Dhabi. Therefore, if the UAE wants to, it can change Trump’s approach towards the Taliban and put to the concerns of the Taliban.

It is clear that the Taliban, by taking refuge in the courts of Qatar, the UAE, etc., were able to draw the attention of American officials.

Internal conflict, foreign support

Serious rumors about rising tension between the Haqqanis and the Kandaharis can also be the motivation to turn to Al Nahyan’s court again. What shows the suspicion of internal tension more strongly is the assassination of Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of Taliban refugees, and more importantly, the introduction of a non-Haqqani in his place: Maulwi Abdul Kabir, the former political deputy of the Taliban prime minister.

Maulwi Kabir is satisfied with accepting the post of the Ministry of Immigrants, but he has not moved to the building of this ministry so far and he is doing his current work from his previous place – this work of his also added to the ambiguity of the story.

The Haqqanis have also remained silent about this transfer, which, according to many experts, indicates the dissatisfaction of this network. When the dispute becomes more entrenched, it is obvious that the Haqqanis will try to find a foreign ally, especially in the situation where the Kandaharis are more relaxed to the tune of India and Qatar.

The problem of TTP and the necessity of mediation

Reports about the possibility of the UAE mediating between the Taliban and Pakistan in order to solve the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) problem are also circulating, but its authenticity cannot be trusted for two reasons: First, the Haqqanis, while having influence over the TTP, also have a warm relationship with Pakistan.

Sirajuddin Haqqani’s establishment of a one-month ceasefire between the parties at the beginning of the Taliban’s return to power indicates her influence on the TTP and her good relations with Islamabad. More importantly, despite the acute verbal and border tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Haqqani bloc has not criticized this country. Moreover, TTP fighters are present in areas that are mainly included in the Haqqani’s sphere of influence.

Therefore, since this network has all the tools at its disposal, the need for UAE mediation is eliminated. It is questionable that it has not done anything to solve Pakistan’s concerns. Therefore, it was logical that the UAE hosted Kandaharis instead of Haqqani, who sound harsh warnings to Islamabad and are very sensitive about the fate of TTP.

Second, China has also tried to curb the TTP, but failed to convince the Taliban. Of course, the UAE has also done so, but compared to China, his words have less impact on the Taliban.

Because the latter is a major global power, it has influence in the Security Council, it is connected to the geography of Afghanistan, and more importantly, by extracting the country’s mineral resources, it deposits a huge amount of money into the pockets of the Taliban.

When China has failed despite all its efforts, it is not unlikely that Abu Dhabi will suffer the same fate. Of course, the UAE is interested in mediation diplomacy in order to surpass its rival (Qatar), whose mediation in the exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners is a clear example.

India in pursuit of gaining the trust of the Haqqanis

Contrary to what was stated in the third point, India’s foot can also be in the middle. New Delhi has a good relationship with the Kandaharis to the extent that it arouses Pakistan’s concern – but he has not succeeded in establishing an open relationship with the Haqqanis.

Every time the representatives of India have visited Kabul, they have not met with the Haqqanis but with the Kandahari Taliban. This indicates the closeness of the Haqqanis to Pakistan.

The recent meeting of Maulvi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister of the Taliban, with the deputy foreign minister of India, in the city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has fueled a wave of concern in Pakistan. From this meeting, it can be understood that the UAE acts as a facilitating force in the expansion of India’s relationship with the Taliban.

Probably, the Indian side has asked Abu Dhabi to obtain the consent of the Haqqanis, something that, if realized, will double the concern of Islamabad, and this country will have no choice but to clarify its duty with the Taliban.