Diplomacy
Refer again to UAE
Taliban’s Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani accompanied by Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of Taliban intelligence, had once again traveled to the United Arab Emirates, and according to the sources, the trip served multiple objectives. Both the officials seemed to be meeting for the second time with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of this country. These two Taliban officials went again on an unexpected trip to the UAE and made news because compared to other Taliban officials, they travel less to nearby countries. So far, Haqqani has only made an open trip to the UAE and Wasiq is also part of these trips.
The return of Trump in White House – concern for the Taliban
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States, is not without influence on the trip of these two Taliban officials in the UAE. To be honest, Trump’s personality type is such that his return has worried even his allies. Look at Israel – an ally that was impatiently waiting for Trump’s return, but now the country is watching the events around with fear. Even if the Taliban are happy with his return, they still cannot be indifferent to everything.
What has added to the concern of the Taliban are Trump’s statements mixed with warning – stop sending money and withdraw military equipment. Even if he does not fulfill these two promises, he has disturbed the peaceful sleep of the Taliban. Worse, if the story of his possible support for the opposition forces of the Taliban gets hotter, the Taliban will not sleep peacefully. As we know, the UAE is one of America’s key allies in the Middle East. More importantly, Al Nahyan is Trump’s favorite – the popularity that led to the recognition of Israel by Abu Dhabi.
The current president of the United States also signed a contract for the sale of 50 F35 fighters with the UAE, but Joe Biden, the previous president, did not implement it. This is despite the fact that only Israel has this type of American fighter. It is clear from Haqqani’s travels that his words are important to Abu Dhabi. Therefore, if the UAE wants to, it can change Trump’s approach towards the Taliban and put to the concerns of the Taliban.
It is clear that the Taliban, by taking refuge in the courts of Qatar, the UAE, etc., were able to draw the attention of American officials.
Internal conflict, foreign support
Serious rumors about rising tension between the Haqqanis and the Kandaharis can also be the motivation to turn to Al Nahyan’s court again. What shows the suspicion of internal tension more strongly is the assassination of Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of Taliban refugees, and more importantly, the introduction of a non-Haqqani in his place: Maulwi Abdul Kabir, the former political deputy of the Taliban prime minister.
Maulwi Kabir is satisfied with accepting the post of the Ministry of Immigrants, but he has not moved to the building of this ministry so far and he is doing his current work from his previous place – this work of his also added to the ambiguity of the story.
The Haqqanis have also remained silent about this transfer, which, according to many experts, indicates the dissatisfaction of this network. When the dispute becomes more entrenched, it is obvious that the Haqqanis will try to find a foreign ally, especially in the situation where the Kandaharis are more relaxed to the tune of India and Qatar.
The problem of TTP and the necessity of mediation
Reports about the possibility of the UAE mediating between the Taliban and Pakistan in order to solve the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) problem are also circulating, but its authenticity cannot be trusted for two reasons: First, the Haqqanis, while having influence over the TTP, also have a warm relationship with Pakistan.
Sirajuddin Haqqani’s establishment of a one-month ceasefire between the parties at the beginning of the Taliban’s return to power indicates her influence on the TTP and her good relations with Islamabad. More importantly, despite the acute verbal and border tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Haqqani bloc has not criticized this country. Moreover, TTP fighters are present in areas that are mainly included in the Haqqani’s sphere of influence.
Therefore, since this network has all the tools at its disposal, the need for UAE mediation is eliminated. It is questionable that it has not done anything to solve Pakistan’s concerns. Therefore, it was logical that the UAE hosted Kandaharis instead of Haqqani, who sound harsh warnings to Islamabad and are very sensitive about the fate of TTP.
Second, China has also tried to curb the TTP, but failed to convince the Taliban. Of course, the UAE has also done so, but compared to China, his words have less impact on the Taliban.
Because the latter is a major global power, it has influence in the Security Council, it is connected to the geography of Afghanistan, and more importantly, by extracting the country’s mineral resources, it deposits a huge amount of money into the pockets of the Taliban.
When China has failed despite all its efforts, it is not unlikely that Abu Dhabi will suffer the same fate. Of course, the UAE is interested in mediation diplomacy in order to surpass its rival (Qatar), whose mediation in the exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners is a clear example.
India in pursuit of gaining the trust of the Haqqanis
Contrary to what was stated in the third point, India’s foot can also be in the middle. New Delhi has a good relationship with the Kandaharis to the extent that it arouses Pakistan’s concern – but he has not succeeded in establishing an open relationship with the Haqqanis.
Every time the representatives of India have visited Kabul, they have not met with the Haqqanis but with the Kandahari Taliban. This indicates the closeness of the Haqqanis to Pakistan.
The recent meeting of Maulvi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister of the Taliban, with the deputy foreign minister of India, in the city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has fueled a wave of concern in Pakistan. From this meeting, it can be understood that the UAE acts as a facilitating force in the expansion of India’s relationship with the Taliban.
Probably, the Indian side has asked Abu Dhabi to obtain the consent of the Haqqanis, something that, if realized, will double the concern of Islamabad, and this country will have no choice but to clarify its duty with the Taliban.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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