Russia’s military presence in Syria faces uncertain future

After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government, the new Syrian government opposes Russia’s military presence in Syria, and Moscow’s attempts to persuade it have failed. For the first time since Bashar al-Assad’s departure, a Russian delegation traveled to Damascus for talks. However, Moscow faces a strong opponent: Türkiye, which does not want the bases to remain.

A source familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that Russia has been unable to reach an agreement on maintaining the bases. Negotiations with the new Syrian government have reached an impasse, the source said. Russian activities at the Khmeimim airbase have been restricted, while two military ships had to wait weeks for permission to dock in Tartus to transport military equipment.

Türkiye, which supports the opposition, opposes Russia’s continued military presence in Syria. Two senior Turkish officials told Bloomberg that it is highly doubtful the new administration would allow Russia to remain in the bases after Russian warplanes attacked opposition forces during the civil war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had supported Assad militarily and helped him avoid defeat in the post-Arab Spring war. This was achieved through intensive bombing of opposition-held Syrian cities by the Russian military—a tactic now being used in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, a Russian delegation arrived in Damascus, including Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, TASS reported. It was the first visit by Russian officials to Damascus since Assad stepped down as Syrian president in December, the state news agency said.

The two Russian transport ships, Sparta and Sparta II, were able to enter the harbor in recent days after weeks of waiting near the Tartus base. This followed Tartus Customs Director Riyad Judi’s announcement that the new Syrian administration had canceled the agreement signed in 2019 with Stroytransgaz to invest in the port (signed for 49 years; the base was leased for the same period).

Satellite imagery shows that Sparta II has left the port, and a significant portion of the containers and military equipment it brought has also disappeared.

“After the cancellation of the 49-year lease, it has become very clear that Russia has no hope of maintaining its military presence in Tartus, and therefore there seems to be no point in continuing to stay there and delay the evacuation,” maritime analyst Frederik van Lokeren told the BBC.