Russia’s strategic base plans in Sudan deadlocked

Russia continues its efforts to secure a strategic naval base in Sudan, which would bolster its presence in Africa and provide a contingency if it loses its naval foothold in Syria following any potential overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Despite agreements with Moscow on arms and oil products, Sudan’s current authorities have not approved the base due to the ongoing civil war and the complex dynamics of international diplomacy.

An agreement to establish a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast was signed in 2019. However, the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war has prevented its official ratification. Initially, Moscow supported the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through the Wagner Group but later shifted its support to Sudanese government troops. In February 2024, Russian Ambassador Andrei Chernovol announced the indefinite postponement of the naval base project.

Reports from Sudanese intelligence officials and Western diplomatic sources, as cited by Bloomberg, indicate that Russia and Iran are engaged in talks with Sudan’s government regarding military installations in Port Sudan and other regions, including the volatile capital, Khartoum.

Sudan has rejected Russia’s offers of advanced S-400 air defense systems, fearing backlash from Western countries and the United States. Nonetheless, Russia has continued its push to deepen ties with Sudan through a combination of economic and military aid.

In June 2024, Malik Agar, the deputy leader under Sudan’s military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited Moscow to negotiate arms deals in exchange for establishing a refueling station on the Red Sea coast. Since then, multiple Russian arms shipments have been reported by Sudanese port officials.

Fuel trade has also resumed. Between April and October 2024, Russia exported 2.8 million barrels of diesel and gasoline to Sudan, making up 47% of Sudan’s total fuel imports. In November, Sudan’s Energy Ministry and Gazprom executives discussed reconstructing oil infrastructure, building pipelines, and constructing a refinery.

Russia is also suspected of providing intelligence support to Sudanese military forces. Commenting on these developments, Justin Lynch, a researcher at Conflict Observatory, stated, “Russia needs a base in the Red Sea and needs to make money from it. Cooperation with the military is a strategic move, both in terms of arms sales and obtaining a facility in Port Sudan.”

Russian military expert Viktor Murakhovsky highlighted the potential significance of this naval base, noting it would be Russia’s first in Africa since the Soviet era. He emphasized Moscow’s strategic goal of controlling the Suez Canal route and establishing a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean.