Saudi exportable crude stocks risk depletion within a week

Saudi Arabia risks exhausting its exportable crude stockpiles if the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea fails to resume operations, according to reports.

Citing companies purchasing Saudi crude as well as market traders, the Reuters news agency reported that such an outcome could trigger a severe contraction in global oil supply.

Oil flows through the pipeline were halted following drone strikes. The government in Riyadh has not yet issued an official statement regarding the extent of the damage or the expected duration of repair works.

Sources familiar with the matter have offered differing estimates regarding the repair timetable.

One source speaking to Reuters noted that works could take five to six weeks, while another source stated that the damage could be repaired more quickly and that partial oil flows could be restored before repairs are entirely completed.

Stocks at Yanbu port reach critical threshold

Traversing the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the pipeline carries approximately 4 million barrels of oil per day. This volume represents roughly 4% of global oil supply.

The line previously provided Saudi Arabia with an alternative export route, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz where maritime traffic has faced disruptions due to regional conflict in the Middle East.

Three sources closely tracking shipment schedules indicated that, following the stoppage, oil reserves at Yanbu port would suffice to sustain exports for only five to seven days.

A fourth source stated that additional reserves held in Egypt at the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna and the Mediterranean terminal of Sidi Kerir afford buyers shipments for several more days.

Storage capacities stand at approximately 35 million barrels at Yanbu, 18 million barrels at Ain Sokhna, and 20 million barrels at Sidi Kerir.

However, sources stressed that these facilities are not currently filled to maximum capacity and warned that these inventories will be entirely depleted if the pipeline is not brought back online.

Output at lowest level in 30 years

According to International Energy Agency data, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea transit corridors pushed Saudi oil supply in August to its lowest level in 30 years.

Data submitted by the Riyadh government to OPEC show that the kingdom’s crude production fell from 10.9 million barrels per day in February to 6.2 million barrels per day in August.

In July, the Houthis in Yemen announced the launch of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. On 8 September, the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced that operations had been suspended at several energy facilities in the southern part of the country.

On the same day, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement condemning Houthi strikes targeting facilities in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran.

Riyadh authorities reported that 73 civilians, including women and children, were injured in the attacks. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran might be behind this attack on Saudi Arabia.

In oil markets, Brent crude futures recorded their sharpest single-day gain since late July on Thursday, 10 September.

The price of November Brent crude contracts rose by 6.3% to reach $107.6 per barrel. Prices retreated below the $105 mark the following day.