Tajikistan worries what comes next in Afghanistan

Tajikistan and Afghanistan are separated by just a few yards of water, the narrow Panj River, and the two neighbors are very close to each other. Interestingly, there are no walls or fences along the borders between the northern sides.

The Taliban are not taking control of the border, where Tajikistan sees it as a threat. Taliban came to power in August 2021, and since then Tajikistan did not recognize it and instead expressed concerns about rising insurgency in Afghanistan.

But still the Taliban are seen in bordering areas near to Tajikistan and their white flags can be seen flying in the village along the river.

The border, which runs through the Pamir Mountains, is now considered as a security alert for the Tajikistan side and reportedly stationed more troops there to safeguard the border.

Tajikistan fears that instability could spread from Afghanistan to Tajikistan, and terrorist groups like Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda are finding footholds in northern Afghanistan which is a direct threat to Tajikistan’s peace and stability.

Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon, said that they have encountered several attempts in recent years where the terrorist groups wanted to breach the border. Addressing the fifth Central Asian Summit in Dushanbe, Rahmon said that not long ago, Tajikistan had thwarted two such attempts, aimed at carrying out terrorist attacks in Dushanbe, the capital city and other regions.

Tajikistan supports peace and stability in the region

However, he also spoke about the region’s commitment to peace and sustainable development, and emphasized the importance of expanding trade, fostering economic relations with the neighbors and the region. He also stressed the significance of cultural and humanitarian cooperation, and the creation of a Central Asian Midia Association in order to address security challenges in the Central Asian states.

The river border – Tajikistan to the left, Afghanistan to the right

Specifically, regarding Afghanistan, Rahmon said that Tajikistan is committed to providing favorable socio-economic conditions and facilitating humanitarian aid delivery to stabilize the situation in the country.

But he reiterated his country’s concern over the increase in terrorist groups activities within Afghanistan’s borders. He also spoke about a surge in drug smuggling along the border with Afghanistan. “In 2022, we will have confiscated approximately five tons of narcotics along the Afghan border, which saw an increase of 22 percent from 2021,” the president added.

Tajikistan calls for regional unity to deal with security challenges  

Focusing on these challenges, Rahmon emphasized a need for regional cooperation and unity to meet the security challenges. This comes while a militant from Jamaat Ansarullah (Tajikistani Taliban) made an appearance in a 13:31 minute video. He appeared with an American rifle on his side, calling on his countrymen to take up arms and not be afraid of accusations such as terrorism.

In the video, he mentioned Afghanistan as a country where the Mujahideen are now governing, and also referred to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) that is also close to seizing power in Pakistan. He also spoke about the success of Jaish al Adl in Iran.

This comes as Tajikistan special forces have recently killed three members of the Jamaat Ansarullah, after they reportedly entered into Tajikistan illegally from Afghanistan. Tajikistan forces also said they seized a large cache of weapons and ammunition.

Terrorists illegally crossed into Tajikistan

The terrorists illegally crossed the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border on the night of August 30, quoting Tajikistan’s State Security Council, local news outlets reported, adding that they entered the country through the Kevron district of Darvaz region, in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan.

AKIPress reported that Tajikistan’s counter-terrorism unit established a cordon around the location where the group was hiding and called on them to surrender.

“The terrorists did not obey the orders of the security forces and opened fire. As a result of the shootout, three members of the armed terrorist group were neutralized,” AKIPress cited a statement from the State Security Committee.

The committee said they seized five Kalashnikov assault rifles, two M-16 sniper rifles, an M-4 carbine, four pistols, 13 hand grenades, magazines for weapons and cartridges, various devices, including night vision binoculars, 30 packs of explosives, 162 detonator capsules, remote controls for explosives, $10,000 in cash, medical supplies, and body armor.

Moreover, on April 26 of this year, two members of the organization also illegally crossed the state border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan in the Dashti Yazgulyam section of Vanj district in order to commit a terrorist act. As a result of the anti-terrorist operation, the terrorists were neutralized.”

Tajikistan has tightened security in border with Afghanistan

Meanwhile, the government of Tajikistan already tightened security in its nearly 850-mile-long border with Afghanistan, and it has been closed since 2022. To maintain security, Tajikistan located 20,000 troops to the area bordering Afghanistan, this also resulted in the cut off the flow of refugees from Afghanistan. At the same time, the Taliban also stops Afghans who want to cross the border.

This comes as last month, the Taliban rejected a UN Security Council report, claiming that several terrorist groups, including IS, are present in Afghanistan and have access to weapons left by US-led foreign forces.

Neighboring Pakistan also accused Kabul for doing little to control TTP militants who have unleashed a spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Two days ago, Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar claimed that US military equipment left behind during the American withdrawal from Afghanistan had fallen into militant hands and ultimately made its way to the TTP.

However, Tajikistan is the only neighbor that has openly adopted a hostile attitude toward the Taliban since their takeover. Meanwhile, Tajikistan has been the main supporter of the anti-Taliban resistance since the 1990s. It is widely believed that Tajikistan again becomes a sanctuary for resistance leaders.