For three days (6-9 June), EU citizens will go to the polls to elect the European Parliament, the 720-member legislature of the European Union.
According to the latest polls, the ‘centre’ forces will continue to hold a majority in the EP in 2024. The ‘centre-right’ European People’s Party (EPP), led by the German Christian Democrats, is in first place with 182 seats, followed by the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats.
This centrist majority, which has dominated the EP for the past five years, together with the liberal Renew Europe group with 81 seats, is expected to win 399 out of 720 seats.
Despite disagreements over how to deal with the ‘far right’, as the EPP has opened the door to close cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party (FdI) and its EP affiliate, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), these three groups have made it clear that they intend to stick to their tripartite coalition.
This means that they will retain control of the EP’s policy-making cycle and have a say in key internal decisions such as the budget.
While both the EPP and the S&D will roughly retain their current seats, Renew Europe, which includes Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, will lose 20 seats, from 102 to 81, the group’s worst result since its creation in 2019.
This leaves Renew in a fight for third place against the right-wing ECR and the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID), which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).
Big losses for the Greens
The losses can be partly explained by the departure of MEPs and the leadership of the Spanish liberal party Ciudadanos (formerly the largest national delegation in the group with eight seats) to join Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (EPP).
At the same time, the Liberals are also facing heavy losses in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition fell from 23 to 15 seats.
According to the latest projections, the ECR is expected to win 79 seats (12.2%) and the ID 69 (8.5%). The Greens would win 55 seats with 7.7% of the vote and the Left 38 seats with 6.4% of the vote.
The number of seats the Greens are expected to win is 17 less than in the previous period. The biggest loss is expected for the German Greens, who are part of the German traffic light coalition.
The ECR increases its number of seats from 68 to 79, while the ID gains 10 more seats, despite having recently expelled the AfD, the largest national party (expected to win 15 seats), due to a series of scandals.
The right will get a chance to block legislation
The ID and ECR will give the EPP the chance to block legislation by ganging up against the Socialists and Liberals, as they tried to do in the last parliament on the nature restoration law. Moreover, this time the right-wing bloc will have enough seats to gain a majority if necessary.
With Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen and Polish opposition leader Mateusz Morawiecki all calling for some kind of right-wing alliance to balance the pro-European forces, speculation is rife about an imminent shift on the hemisphere’s ‘far right’.
While some would like to see a right-wing super-group that would bring together the ECR and the ID, making the far right the second largest political force with around 160 seats, such an option seems unlikely due to wide disagreements on policy areas and long-standing internal bickering between national parties.
A new left-wing group could also enter the EP
The Left is set to win 38 seats, more or less the same number as now, but with limited room for manoeuvre for broader coalitions. Moreover, the group’s future is uncertain.
In Germany, the new party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) recently confirmed that it had enough support to form a new left-wing group in the EP.
The BSW is reported to be in talks with organisations such as LFI and SMER, the ruling party in Slovakia.
The largest national group is expected to come from France
The top national delegations will reshape the balance of power in the EP and bring new priorities to the legislative work.
Ahead of the vote on Thursday 6 June, Europe Elects’ latest predictions for Euractiv reveal what could happen in the coming period.
According to the latest predictions, the top five national delegations could be the French RN with 31 seats, the German CDU/CSU with 28 seats, the Spanish Partido Popular (PP) with 23 seats, and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Poland’s centre-right Civic Coalition (KO), both in fifth place with 20 seats each.
