The armed rebels ended the 50-year regime of the Assad family in Syria. The rapid advance of the opposition, while the army of the Assad regime did not show much resistance, surprised everyone — so much so that Assad’s supporters (Russia and Iran) did not find much opportunity to defend him or they considered the intervention useless.
The fact that some people say that the allies of the Assad regime traded him is still a hypothesis, and the fact of the fall cannot be properly analyzed by relying on it. Because this approach underestimates the real factors of the failure of Bashar Assad’s government, or in the worst case, ignores it by overestimating the conspiracy theory. Even if there was such a conspiracy, it can only tell a small part of the reality of the Syrian crisis, not all of it.
What has been revealed so far is not the high power of the armed rebels, but the excessive weakness of the Syrian army and its escape from the front lines of the war, which was least expected.
During the height of the war that started 2011, the army of this country showed a lot of resistance against terrorist groups ISIS and the same groups that were able to prevail over Assad, and later when Russia and Iran came in to support it and Assad were able to suppress the armed opposition with more force. With this knowledge of the Syrian army, it was less conceivable that he would simply give up the war and run away.
The most important lesson that can be learned from this event is that no matter how strong and invincible the armies appear, when they are not motivated to fight and are unable to fight, they will fall as fast as they have achieved impressive victories in the past.
Terrorist groups have proven that the key to their success is, among other factors, stubbornness, single-mindedness, and a high motivation for violence and killing. The Taliban also succeeded in continuing the war against one of the largest armies in the world with the same stubbornness and consistent terrorist motive. In several cases, the commanders of this powerful army have to admit that “we are tired of killing you.” In Syria, when Bashar Assad’s army got tired of fighting, it was the armed opposition who took the initiative in the battlefield and captured areas one after the other.
The Syrian army seemed reluctant to fight, causing a rapid fall of provinces one by one that even Assad’s supporters can’t do anything
When the army practically refused to fight with the terrorist groups, especially the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad’s allies (Russia and Iran) also looked at the Syrian army with reluctance and disgust and realized that it was no longer possible to save Assad.
It was because they did not act seriously in defense of the Syrian government or acted too late, which had no effect. Whatever it was, the Assad regime has collapsed with his escape from Syria and the armed opposition has dominated the situation.
The fate of this country is now in the hands of armed groups that are not only not well remembered, but also have a much worse track record compared to the Assad government.
Syria is currently a divided country, and each part of it is under the control of a militant group; Groups, some of which are not ideologically similar and have even fought with each other.
Along with numerous militia groups, from world powers (Russia and America) to regional actors such as Israel, each of them has settled in a corner of this country – Iran also had a serious and effective presence in Syria before the fall of the Bashar Assad regime, which It does not seem to have much foothold in that country after this.
Based on the ground reality, it is too soon to talk with full confidence about a better future for Syria.
Therefore, the Assad regime was only one of the actors in the multi-part country called Syria, which has now joined history. The collapse of this regime will strengthen armed groups as well as global and regional actors active in the Syrian crisis.
Right now, not much time has passed since the fall of the Assad regime, the conflict between the forces loyal to different countries and groups which some of them are being supported by the United States of America, has begun. So, the possibility that Syria will witness the escalation of civil war and geopolitical competition between global and regional powers is strongly suggested, and the symptoms of this disastrous situation are already showing themselves.
Although it is still too early to speak with full confidence about the future of Syria; But what we can say for sure based on the current reality on the ground in this country is that the difficult days of Syria have just begun.
Afghanistan’s Taliban celebrated the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime
Local sources in Paktia, Paktika, Logar and Laghman provinces say that the Taliban fighters in these provinces celebrated the fall of Bashar Assad regime and “rejoiced”.
Sources told Harici that the Taliban came to the streets around the cities of these provinces and also the Taliban fired aerial shots and played songs loudly in several districts to celebrate (HTS) victory in Syria.
On the other hand, sources in Laghman said that the Taliban distributed sweets to the people and students of schools yesterday and today. The Taliban called the rebels of HTS their “brothers” and chanted slogans against the former government of Syria, Israel and the United States. Taliban members and soldiers in Khost, Nangarhar, Panjshir, Herat and Ghor provinces also celebrated the fall of the Assad regime by distributing sweets.
The Taliban Prime Minister’s Office also in a statement said that the political commission of this group has held a meeting to discuss the recent developments in Syria and the Middle East.
