Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia defense agreement: An attack on one will be considered an attack on all

Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement that deepens security cooperation at a time of rising military tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. The agreement stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three states will be considered an attack against all of them.

Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement at a trilateral summit held in Mecca on Friday, pledging to strengthen collective security, deepen defense cooperation and support peace and stability in the region and beyond.

The “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” was signed at a summit held at Al-Safa Palace by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

According to a statement issued by Türkiye’s Directorate of Communications, the agreement reflects the three countries’ shared determination to strengthen their collective security on the basis of their longstanding historical ties, Islamic solidarity, common strategic interests and close defense cooperation.

The agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and provides that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them.

The agreement also provides for the development of defense cooperation among the three countries in all fields.

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Makkah Al-Mukarramah Summit for Joint Defence

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Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud hosted Erdoğan and Sharif in Saudi Arabia for the summit.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan traveled to Saudi Arabia on Friday and met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, meanwhile, arrived in Saudi Arabia a day earlier together with the country’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir and performed Umrah in Mecca.

Iran and its allies have been targeting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries and obstructing their energy shipments since the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, escalating tensions in the region.

According to a joint statement by the three countries, the agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and provides that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them.

The joint statement did not specify the details of the obligations undertaken by the parties under the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.” It noted, however, that the agreement aims to strengthen collective security and promote peace, security and stability in the region and beyond.

A Turkish official told Reuters, “The pact includes a collective defense clause. It is entirely defensive and commits the parties to mutual support solely for defensive purposes.”

The official also said the agreement was not directed against any specific actor, was open to the participation of other countries in the region, and did not invalidate or replace any existing bilateral or multilateral arrangement.

At the same time, the three countries are concerned both about Israel’s increasing aggression and Iran’s expanding influence at a time when their longstanding ally, the United States, is struggling to contain regional turmoil.

Strong political symbolism

Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said, “The political symbolism of the summit is significant. Three of the most influential countries in the Muslim world are coming together at a time of growing uncertainty. This shows the increasing willingness of regional and middle powers to coordinate more closely on security issues.”

Sager added, “If the trilateral mechanism is institutionalized and translated into concrete cooperation, it could strengthen the combined diplomatic and defense weight of the three countries while also contributing to the emergence of a security architecture that is more strongly shaped by regional dynamics.”

Türkiye has NATO’s second-largest army. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s most powerful country, is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. Pakistan, meanwhile, is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons.

The Iran factor

Since the war began on February 28, Saudi Arabia has been targeted by Iran as well as its Houthi allies in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq because it hosts U.S. military bases.

The conflict has also brought most shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried around one-fifth of global energy supplies before the war, to a halt.

For Saudi Arabia, the consequences of the conflicts in the Middle East over the past three years have been more severe. While the conflicts have endangered the country’s oil exports and ambitious development plans, they have also raised serious questions about the reliability of the U.S. security umbrella on which Riyadh has relied for many years.

A senior Saudi official told Reuters on Thursday that the country expects coordinated attacks in the near future from both Iraqi militias and the Houthis under Iranian direction. This raises questions about how the new alliance would respond to such attacks.

Iran-aligned Welayat News described the agreement as a Saudi request for assistance. The report included the following assessment: “Ansarullah’s Yemen-based equation of ‘blockade for blockade, escalation for escalation’ has put the Saudis under pressure. At Saudi Arabia’s initiative, a defense alliance between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is expected to be signed today.”

Although Türkiye and Pakistan have avoided major direct attacks, both countries want the conflicts that threaten their own security and economic conditions to be de-escalated.

According to a Reuters report in May, Pakistan deployed around 8,000 troops, fighter aircraft, drones and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia and moved toward developing broader security ties across the Gulf.

Reuters reported in July that Pakistan had also begun negotiations with Kuwait on an expanded security agreement in exchange for energy cooperation and investment.

The AP news agency also noted that the agreement was announced at a time when Türkiye’s relations with Israel have become strained over the conflicts in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.

Former Israeli official: Türkiye will not fight the Houthis simply because Saudi Arabia asks

Commenting on the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, former head of Israel’s National Security Council Prof. Jacob Nagel said Saudi Arabia is not as powerful as it appears and described the country as a “paper tiger.”

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, Nagel said, “You have to understand this: despite all its wealth and weapons, Saudi Arabia is to a large extent a paper tiger. It has a great deal of weaponry and a great deal of money, but militarily it cannot even manage to get through the day.”

On whether Türkiye would defend Saudi Arabia under the agreement, Nagel said, “I do not think the Turks will send their navy and attack the Houthis simply because the Houthis attacked the Saudis. That certainly does not align with my realistic view of the region.”

According to Nagel, Saudi Arabia is therefore looking for alternatives.

“Saudi Arabia understands that it is in serious trouble, both financially and in terms of security. Even before the recent wars, we saw them take the surprising step of signing an agreement with Iran. They did this because they were afraid and felt exposed to the concrete Iranian threat, as well as to Iran’s militias across the Middle East.”

Nagel continued:

“The Saudis’ problem is that despite having the most advanced equipment, aircraft and intelligence capabilities, they do not know how to use this power effectively on the ground. For that reason, all this talk of new alliances with Pakistan or Türkiye should be approached with considerable caution.”

Nagel also said, “This is more of a diplomatic maneuver aimed at putting pressure on the U.S. administration.”

“The Saudis are disappointed with the U.S. position. Particularly in light of the shortcomings they have identified in missile and interceptor ammunition stockpiles in the West, they are trying to send the message that they will not be left alone in the struggle against the Shiite axis.”