UK energy security at risk as Iran conflict drains critical gas reserves

Britain faces a mounting economic crisis as the protracted conflict in Iran threatens to destabilize the nation’s energy security and fiscal health. While the war’s onset was marked by diplomatic friction with Donald Trump over access to British military bases, the deepening struggle now risks pushing the United Kingdom toward a financial precipice.

According to reports in The Times, Britain’s gas infrastructure is under unprecedented strain, with dwindling supplies from the Middle East leaving the nation with as little as two days’ worth of gas stocks in storage.

Compounding the crisis, the UK is currently paying the highest energy prices in Europe—a 6% premium over its continental neighbors—a disparity analysts attribute directly to the rapid depletion of strategic reserves. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, while Qatar has suspended production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, following a series of drone strikes.

On Monday, Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel as traders braced for supply disruptions expected to last several weeks. Domestically, British petrol prices began an upward climb last week, signaling immediate inflationary pressure on consumers.

The Island’s gas primarily sourced from Europe

Britain remains heavily dependent on cross-channel infrastructure, with pipelines from Europe accounting for 30% of the nation’s total energy requirements over the past week.

While the risk of immediate blackouts has not yet materialized, the convergence of restricted Middle Eastern supply and a potential European cold snap could turn the current reserve deficit into a full-blown emergency. Data from the transmission operator, National Gas, reveals a precipitous drop in UK gas reserves, falling from 18,000 GWh three months ago to just 6,700 GWh. While this downward trend mirrors seasonal patterns, stocks are significantly lower than the 9,000 GWh recorded during the same period last year.

Current levels represent less than two days of supply if pipeline imports were to cease. A similar volume is currently held as LNG. Should a cold wave coincide with continued Middle Eastern volatility, prices are expected to spike, forcing Britain to pay a substantial premium to secure necessary imports.

The vulnerability of the British consumer is stark; internal data suggests that without government intervention to subsidize household bills, the average annual price cap would have soared to £4,279 in 2023.

Increasing significance of North Sea fields and Norway

In February, National Gas advised ministers that because Britain maintains significantly lower reserves than most European peers, the government must take urgent measures to fortify future supply—including North Sea production—and accelerate the development of storage capacity.

The impact of rising wholesale costs will soon reach the public. Although the Ofgem energy price cap is set to fall to £1,641 for the average household in April, the benefit will likely be short-lived. Cornwall Insight, an energy research consultancy, forecasts that the cap for a typical dual-fuel household will rise by 10% to £1,801 when the next adjustment takes effect in July.

Businesses, which do not benefit from the domestic price cap, are even more exposed. Many are expected to face immediate tariff hikes, with the majority likely to pass these increased operating costs directly to consumers.

Meanwhile, North Sea production continues its structural decline. The state-owned National Energy System Operator has issued a formal warning regarding a “new risk to gas supply security,” noting that if the transition to green energy remains sluggish or if a single major gas infrastructure component fails, Britain may lack sufficient supply to meet its needs by 2030.

National Gas maintains that the government must “protect existing storage capacity and facilitate expansion” to build the resilience necessary to withstand shipping delays, market shocks, or extreme weather events.

Gas storage issues could plague the British government

Mike Foster, Chief Executive of the Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA), noted that successive administrations were warned about the inadequacy of gas reserves more than a decade ago.

“A lack of investment has left the UK vulnerable, and the responsibility lies with previous leadership,” Foster said. He added that while the country still benefits from significant North Sea resources—both domestic and Norwegian—which together meet approximately 80% of national demand, the system remains fragile.

Foster emphasized that facilities like Rough, Britain’s largest gas storage site which has faced threats of closure, provide a critical safety net. “Without these facilities, the system becomes far more susceptible to global shocks, such as the current instability in Ukraine and Iran,” he noted.

National Gas offered a more measured assessment, stating: “Britain’s gas storage levels are largely in line with what we expect for this time of year and are at similar levels compared to the same period last year. Storage represents only a small component of Britain’s diverse gas supply mix. Most of our gas is sourced from the UK Continental Shelf and Norway, bolstered by LNG, interconnectors with mainland Europe, and storage.”

Government denies “two-day supply” claims

A government source dismissed the narrative that Britain is down to its final two days of gas, labeling the figures “dubious calculations.”

“This assumes that storage is the only form of supply and simply divides storage stocks by daily demand,” the source said. “Gas markets do not function that way. Storage represents a relatively low % of the supply mix at any given time.”

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero echoed this sentiment, stating: “The claim that Britain only has access to two days of gas supply is categorically untrue. We have a diverse range of energy sources and remain confident in our security of supply. As we transition to more secure, clean, and domestic energy, gas will continue to play a vital role in our resilient system. We are working with the sector to ensure the gas system is fit for the future, including maintaining security of supply under even the most improbable scenarios.”

Starmer warns: Protracted war will deepen economic impact

Addressing the conflict in Iran, Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged that the longer the hostilities continue, the greater the potential damage to the UK economy.

“The government’s duty is to move forward, to look ahead, and to cooperate with others,” the Prime Minister said. “The Chancellor is in daily contact with the Governor of the Bank of England, collaborating across departments to assess and monitor risks. We are speaking with international partners about what more we can do together to mitigate the impact on our people and businesses.”

Starmer added that recognizing the necessity of this work is vital, as the public and businesses will feel the weight of the situation the longer it persists. He characterized the government’s role as one of “getting ahead of the situation, assessing risk, and collaborating on a response.”

While Starmer suggested the energy cap would shield households from the worst of the economic turbulence, he admitted that businesses would be “rightly concerned” and are watching developments with apprehension.

When asked if Donald Trump’s military actions risked a global conflict, the Prime Minister responded: “We must find a way to de-escalate the situation. Much of our discussion is focused on how we can find a path to de-escalation and ensure this does not spiral further.”

Starmer also asserted that the UK economy is in a stronger position now than it was in 2022, when the war in Ukraine triggered an initial energy price shock.

American and British troops defend jointly

The Prime Minister confirmed that the US is currently utilizing British airbases in relation to the Iran conflict, noting that “at every level,” there is daily intelligence cooperation and contact between London and Washington.

“In the region, our military personnel and US personnel are co-located at the same bases,” Starmer said. “Both the US and the UK are working together to protect those bases. In terms of the relationship, the work we must do together continues as you would expect.”

However, Starmer emphasized that decisions regarding Britain’s “best interests” remain solely the prerogative of the British Prime Minister, citing this as the “fundamental principle” guiding his decisions on Iran.

Chancellor under pressure to scrap fuel tax hike

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is facing intense political pressure to cancel a planned fuel tariff increase scheduled for September. The hike would occur as the government withdraws a temporary relief measure introduced four years ago, leading to higher costs for petrol and diesel.

In an interview with the Press Association, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch signaled she would challenge the government in Parliament to extend the 5p cut in fuel tariff.

“In last week’s spring statement, Rachel Reeves indicated the 5p cut would only last until September,” Badenoch said. “Given world events, we must extend this relief. Tomorrow, we will vote to keep the fuel tariff as low as possible. These measures are what truly help reduce the cost of living for people.”

A policy document dated February 26 regarding fuel tariff rates states: “Alongside other measures announced in Budget 2025 to address the cost of living, this measure continues to support drivers by freezing current fuel tariff rates until the end of August 2026. Rates will gradually return to March 2022 levels by March 2027, preventing a 5p increase in March 2026 when the cut was set to expire. The planned inflation-linked increase for 2026-2027 is also being cancelled. This measure will save the average driver £49 in 2026-2027 compared to previous plans.”

Housing Minister: Our economy is resilient to shocks

Housing Minister Steve Reed acknowledged the scale of the economic uncertainty but maintained that the British economy is robust enough to weather the storm.

“Britain cannot control crises happening across the planet that affect our country,” Reed told ITV’s Good Morning Britain. “What we can control are our own circumstances.”

While admitting the long-term costs of energy prices remain unknown, Reed argued: “Having a more stable economy means we are in a better position to weather these storms. We will, of course, continue to monitor the situation closely.”

Interest rate cuts may be deferred

The sharp rise in oil prices is forcing financial markets to reassess the trajectory of British interest rates.

“A sustained move for Brent crude above $100 effectively acts as an inflationary tax,” said Jonathan Raymond, investment lead at Quilter Cheviot. “This increases business costs, squeezes real incomes, and risks keeping headline inflation above target for longer.”

Market data released Monday shows investors now expect the Bank of England to maintain the base rate at 3.75% through the end of the year, with some predicting a hike to 4% by June. Prior to the escalation in Iran, the probability of a rate cut at the Bank’s March 19 meeting was estimated at 80%.

Current market pricing indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting, with no cuts anticipated for the remainder of 2026.

Global markets also expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike Eurozone rates this year to combat oil-driven inflation. Money markets have fully priced in a quarter-point increase by July. Bloomberg reports that swaps now indicate a 70% chance of two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB this year, a sharp increase from the single hike priced in as recently as Friday.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves remains in “daily” consultations with the Bank of England, according to the Prime Minister, as the government seeks to manage the fallout from the ongoing energy crisis.