UK faces critical decision on potential US-Iran conflict

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has put his cabinet on alert for a potential US attack on Iran.

British officials describe the situation as “serious and volatile,” while the prime minister’s team has discussed whether Donald Trump will launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities from the joint US-UK airbase on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

So far, the United Kingdom has not been directly involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict and appears determined to avoid any steps that could lead to the closure of its embassy in Tehran, a key Western diplomatic hub in the Middle East.

According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Starmer discussed the possibility of a US attack on Iran during a meeting of the Whitehall emergency committee on Wednesday.

The meeting was attended by senior cabinet ministers, military officials, intelligence chiefs, and the US Ambassador, Lord Peter Mandelson.

The prime minister has maintained his call for “de-escalation,” which is the official reason for the UK not offering any support to Israel in defending itself against Iranian air attacks.

On Wednesday evening, Starmer held a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, who has close ties with Iran, to discuss the conflict.

Downing Street stated that Starmer and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani emphasized “the need for de-escalation and diplomacy.”

At the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday, Starmer noted that Trump had said “nothing to indicate he would get involved in this conflict.”

However, British officials later acknowledged that it was unlikely Trump would share his true intentions over dinner with Western leaders and that the White House’s approach to the crisis was an “iterative process.”

The US’s use of the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean for air strikes with B-2 stealth bombers could draw the United Kingdom further into the conflict.

A British official said there was no clear “yes or no” answer as to whether Washington would need London’s approval to use the base for an attack.

However, according to The Times, the US does require the UK’s permission to use the base.

A US military source told the newspaper, “Diego Garcia is under United Kingdom sovereignty. We request permission for any activity related to Diego Garcia.”

The US could also use the UK’s base in Cyprus, where it might be asked to deploy American refueling aircraft.

Last month, the United Kingdom signed a £3.4 billion deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining a 99-year lease on the airbase on Diego Garcia, the largest of the islands.

Israel’s ambassador to London said on Tuesday that London’s defensive support had not been discussed or requested.

This contrasts with last April, when Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter jets shot down Iranian drones fired at Israel. RAF aircraft also provided assistance during Tehran’s missile attack on Israel last October.

The United Kingdom also assisted with US military strikes in Yemen last year.

Britain’s involvement in the current crisis could raise questions about the continued presence of British diplomats in Tehran, where the US does not have an embassy.

A Downing Street spokesperson said after the Whitehall committee meeting, “Ministers were briefed on ongoing diplomatic efforts and efforts to support British nationals in the region and ensure regional security.”

Starmer has repeatedly emphasized “Israel’s right to defend itself” and said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, but he has avoided stating whether he would support US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.

Attorney General Lord Hermer has raised concerns about the legality of London’s intervention in the conflict. According to his legal opinion, Britain should limit its involvement to “defensive” support.

However, another government source expressed concern that the UK refusing a US request to conduct bombing raids against Iran would have significant implications for the “special relationship.”

According to The Times, ministers at the meeting discussed various scenarios, including completely withholding support, allowing the use of Diego Garcia, providing logistical support, and a full-scale military intervention. A limited offer of support is seen as the most likely outcome.

No decision has been reached yet, and the government hopes that Trump can be persuaded not to intervene during a brief “window of opportunity” before US military forces are deployed.

The British military is on high alert over fears that troops deployed in the region could be targeted. There are currently 14 Typhoon jets in Cyprus to protect British personnel, and there are concerns that the 100 British soldiers stationed in Baghdad and Erbil could be attacked if the UK is seen to be participating in the conflict.

Theoretically, the Typhoons, flying over Iraq and Syria as part of “Operation Shader” against ISIS, could be used to protect British soldiers from drone attacks or to drop precision-guided Paveway IV bombs on proxy forces.

It is rumored that any US attack on Iran might initially focus on the heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility, which Israel lacks sufficient bombs to destroy.

The US bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating Fordow must be launched from American B-2 stealth bombers. In March, Washington deployed at least six B-2As to Diego Garcia as it increased pressure on Tehran to accept a nuclear deal.

Experts noted that the US could launch B-2 attacks from its main base in Missouri, but the additional distance and need for refueling would make any mission more challenging.

A British government spokesperson said they would “not comment on hypothetical operations.”

Meanwhile, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced that family members of British embassy and consulate staff in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have been “temporarily withdrawn as a precautionary measure.”

This decision contradicts the FCDO’s current advice, which instructs British citizens in Israel to register with the British embassy or consulate but does not tell them to leave the country.

British officials stated that the number of people who have registered for advice and other consular assistance is in the “thousands,” most of whom are dual British-Israeli citizens.

The FCDO has reported that it is still possible to leave the country using commercial land routes through Egypt or Jordan, but it has advised British citizens not to attempt to exit Israel.

A Number 10 spokesperson said, “Our key message to British nationals is to follow the advice of local authorities, stay near shelters, and register their presence with the FCDO.”