Diplomacy
UK faces critical decision on potential US-Iran conflict
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has put his cabinet on alert for a potential US attack on Iran.
British officials describe the situation as “serious and volatile,” while the prime minister’s team has discussed whether Donald Trump will launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities from the joint US-UK airbase on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
So far, the United Kingdom has not been directly involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict and appears determined to avoid any steps that could lead to the closure of its embassy in Tehran, a key Western diplomatic hub in the Middle East.
According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Starmer discussed the possibility of a US attack on Iran during a meeting of the Whitehall emergency committee on Wednesday.
The meeting was attended by senior cabinet ministers, military officials, intelligence chiefs, and the US Ambassador, Lord Peter Mandelson.
The prime minister has maintained his call for “de-escalation,” which is the official reason for the UK not offering any support to Israel in defending itself against Iranian air attacks.
On Wednesday evening, Starmer held a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, who has close ties with Iran, to discuss the conflict.
Downing Street stated that Starmer and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani emphasized “the need for de-escalation and diplomacy.”
At the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday, Starmer noted that Trump had said “nothing to indicate he would get involved in this conflict.”
However, British officials later acknowledged that it was unlikely Trump would share his true intentions over dinner with Western leaders and that the White House’s approach to the crisis was an “iterative process.”
The US’s use of the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean for air strikes with B-2 stealth bombers could draw the United Kingdom further into the conflict.
A British official said there was no clear “yes or no” answer as to whether Washington would need London’s approval to use the base for an attack.
However, according to The Times, the US does require the UK’s permission to use the base.
A US military source told the newspaper, “Diego Garcia is under United Kingdom sovereignty. We request permission for any activity related to Diego Garcia.”
The US could also use the UK’s base in Cyprus, where it might be asked to deploy American refueling aircraft.
Last month, the United Kingdom signed a £3.4 billion deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining a 99-year lease on the airbase on Diego Garcia, the largest of the islands.
Israel’s ambassador to London said on Tuesday that London’s defensive support had not been discussed or requested.
This contrasts with last April, when Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter jets shot down Iranian drones fired at Israel. RAF aircraft also provided assistance during Tehran’s missile attack on Israel last October.
The United Kingdom also assisted with US military strikes in Yemen last year.
Britain’s involvement in the current crisis could raise questions about the continued presence of British diplomats in Tehran, where the US does not have an embassy.
A Downing Street spokesperson said after the Whitehall committee meeting, “Ministers were briefed on ongoing diplomatic efforts and efforts to support British nationals in the region and ensure regional security.”
Starmer has repeatedly emphasized “Israel’s right to defend itself” and said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, but he has avoided stating whether he would support US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Attorney General Lord Hermer has raised concerns about the legality of London’s intervention in the conflict. According to his legal opinion, Britain should limit its involvement to “defensive” support.
However, another government source expressed concern that the UK refusing a US request to conduct bombing raids against Iran would have significant implications for the “special relationship.”
According to The Times, ministers at the meeting discussed various scenarios, including completely withholding support, allowing the use of Diego Garcia, providing logistical support, and a full-scale military intervention. A limited offer of support is seen as the most likely outcome.
No decision has been reached yet, and the government hopes that Trump can be persuaded not to intervene during a brief “window of opportunity” before US military forces are deployed.
The British military is on high alert over fears that troops deployed in the region could be targeted. There are currently 14 Typhoon jets in Cyprus to protect British personnel, and there are concerns that the 100 British soldiers stationed in Baghdad and Erbil could be attacked if the UK is seen to be participating in the conflict.
Theoretically, the Typhoons, flying over Iraq and Syria as part of “Operation Shader” against ISIS, could be used to protect British soldiers from drone attacks or to drop precision-guided Paveway IV bombs on proxy forces.
It is rumored that any US attack on Iran might initially focus on the heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility, which Israel lacks sufficient bombs to destroy.
The US bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating Fordow must be launched from American B-2 stealth bombers. In March, Washington deployed at least six B-2As to Diego Garcia as it increased pressure on Tehran to accept a nuclear deal.
Experts noted that the US could launch B-2 attacks from its main base in Missouri, but the additional distance and need for refueling would make any mission more challenging.
A British government spokesperson said they would “not comment on hypothetical operations.”
Meanwhile, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced that family members of British embassy and consulate staff in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have been “temporarily withdrawn as a precautionary measure.”
This decision contradicts the FCDO’s current advice, which instructs British citizens in Israel to register with the British embassy or consulate but does not tell them to leave the country.
British officials stated that the number of people who have registered for advice and other consular assistance is in the “thousands,” most of whom are dual British-Israeli citizens.
The FCDO has reported that it is still possible to leave the country using commercial land routes through Egypt or Jordan, but it has advised British citizens not to attempt to exit Israel.
A Number 10 spokesperson said, “Our key message to British nationals is to follow the advice of local authorities, stay near shelters, and register their presence with the FCDO.”
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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