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Critical 48 hours for US decision on Iran as military options are weighed

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As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, US President Donald Trump is considering direct military action to deliver a permanent blow to Iran’s nuclear program.

President Trump, who met with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room yesterday, is said to have a critical 24 to 48 hours to decide between diplomacy and military intervention. US officials indicate that it will become clear within this timeframe whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible.

Before the meeting, Trump significantly hardened his rhetoric against Iran, claiming to know exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding. In a social media post, Trump stated, “He is an easy target but he is safe there. We will not take him out (kill him!), at least for now. But we do not want missiles fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is running out.” In another post, he claimed, “We have complete and total control of the skies over Iran right now.”

A final chance for diplomacy?

Despite this intimidating rhetoric, US negotiators believe Iran is in a weak position and can be forced back to the negotiating table. According to several officials involved in the diplomatic process who spoke to ABC News, it is thought that Iran might eventually agree to a deal requiring it to abandon all nuclear enrichment activities.

Officials noted that while Iran and Israel were exchanging attacks, Iran signaled its intention to resume talks with the US. However, the Trump administration is seeking more concrete commitments before abandoning the path to war. If Iran returns to negotiations and agrees to halt uranium enrichment, US officials believe a high-level meeting, led by Special Representative Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance, could take place this week.

This scenario, however, requires Iran to act quickly. President Trump has previously expressed that his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin. Sources close to the US President said that Trump is frustrated by a destabilized Iran’s inability to provide immediate responses to his administration and is not inclined to allow a situation where Tehran appears to have successfully called his military bluff.

US military buildup increases

Meanwhile, the US military has already begun deploying assets to the region. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said of the US posture in the Middle East, “We are strong, we are ready, we are on defense, and we are there.”

Although these moves are described as defensive, the repositioning of assets leaves options open should the Trump administration decide to directly assist Israel’s ongoing offensive against Iran. “It is our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive,” an American official stated.

These steps include sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to protect the approximately 40,000 American troops stationed in the region. Additionally, more than 30 refueling aircraft have been sent to Europe. Another American official said these planes were moved to the European theater to provide Trump with “options” if the situation escalates further and the US decides to become more involved. The refueling tankers could be used to assist in refueling Israeli jets, offering Trump a less intensive military engagement option.

‘Bunker buster’ bombs on the table

One of the biggest questions facing Trump is whether the US will drop GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Iran hawks argue this move is necessary to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear threat. Israel does not possess this bomb, which is believed to be the only weapon capable of destroying the highly protected nuclear facility buried deep inside an Iranian mountain.

Furthermore, Israel does not have the B-2 stealth bomber capable of dropping this bomb in its inventory. This situation has led current and former Israeli officials to pressure the US to enter the conflict. The US fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is currently located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of these aircraft were previously deployed to the air base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a location much closer to Iran.

Israel pressures Washington to act

Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told CNN on Monday, “The United States is much stronger than we are. They have capabilities that we do not have. I am sure that if the US decides to act, it will do so not only for our interests but for its own.”

Another former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, told CNN that Trump has a “responsibility to ensure the region moves in a positive direction and that the world is free from a nuclear-armed Iran.”

In the fifth day of missile attacks, Israel has damaged Iran’s energy facilities, missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, command centers, and state television. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows no interest in negotiations after launching the largest-ever military operation against his regional rival last week. In the ongoing large-scale missile exchanges between the two sides, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 220 in Iran.

Trump’s agenda is changing

Among the signs that the Trump administration may be approaching military action is the possibility that the president will cancel his travel plans to a NATO summit in the Netherlands next week. At a press conference yesterday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still “on the schedule” but that the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran. “This is a very fast-moving situation. So I would say anything is possible,” Bruce assessed.

President Trump had returned to Washington early from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday to monitor the situation in the Middle East from the White House.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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