The United Kingdom made history on Sunday, 15 December, by becoming the first European country to join the Indo-Pacific trade bloc, marking its largest trade agreement since Brexit. As the 12th member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the UK is also the first non-coastal nation in the region to participate.
The UK formally signed the accession agreement in 2022, with officials projecting an annual economic boost of up to $2.5 billion. According to government data, Britain’s total trade volume reached £1.7 trillion ($2.15 trillion) in the year leading up to September 2023.
The trade bloc, established in 2018, includes prominent G7 members such as Canada and Japan, alongside nations like Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Together, these nations represent approximately 15% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and provide access to a market of over 500 million people.
Membership in the CPTPP is viewed as a counterbalance to China’s growing regional influence, although China has also applied to join the bloc. The UK government hopes this membership will revitalize trade ties post-Brexit and open doors for British businesses.
The previous Conservative government spearheaded the initiative, with then-Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch describing the CPTPP as the “biggest trade deal since Britain left the EU.” Since leaving the EU’s single market in 2021, the UK has signed trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore and is currently pursuing deals with the Gulf States and India. However, a free trade agreement with the United States remains elusive.
Despite optimistic projections, early analyses have been less favorable. A 2021 government study, conducted before the deal’s terms were finalized, estimated only a 0.08% increase in GDP from CPTPP membership. Critics also highlight broader challenges stemming from Brexit, with long-term modeling from the UK’s budget watchdog predicting a 15% decline in trade and a 4% reduction in productivity.
Opposition parties, however, remain divided. Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith recently stated that the CPTPP offers “a path to prosperity” through trade with nations like the US, rather than rekindling ties with the EU.
Former Conservative Trade Secretary Liz Truss had earlier emphasized that joining the CPTPP would create opportunities for UK businesses that were unattainable under EU membership.
