What awaits Georgia after the elections?

As an independent state more than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia faces a number of domestic and international challenges. On the one hand, the small Caucasian country is seeking rapprochement with the European Union and NATO, while on the other it is struggling with geopolitical pressures such as Russia’s occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In this turbulent period, the Georgian people are once again going to the polls to decide their fate. The parliamentary elections on 26 October have the potential to affect not only the domestic political balance, but also Georgia’s relations with the West and its regional security strategy.

The country’s current political power, the Georgian Dream party, is at the centre of criticism for its tensions with the European Union (EU) and the United States, as well as its close ties with Russia. Georgia’s EU membership process and its struggle for territorial integrity could take a new direction depending on the outcome of these critical elections. It has been reported that Georgia’s EU accession process has been halted following the adoption of the controversial ‘Transparency of Foreign Influence’ law.

Director and founder of News Day Georgia news agency, have been doing journalism for 35 years since the fall of Soviet Union. 

Can you summarize the transformation of Georgia and Georgian politics before and after the Soviet Union? Now, Georgia is at the gate of the European Union. What can you say about today?

These 30 years have been really difficult regarding economic problems. Today we have a really interesting and important moment. We will have Parliamentary elections on October 26. This election is very important but the ruler of today Georgian Dream which was established by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has won three parliamentary election until now.

Do you trust the elections in Georgia regarding security?

This is difficult to answer but we have not facts proving that the elections are won illegally. We only have the rumors that there is not election safety. At the pre-election stage, so far, everything is taking place in a more or less normal environment. Before those three elections, things were also same. 

You said that 26 October elections are very important. Georgian Dream has still running the country. What is the scenario for post-election period? Do you think Georgian Dream is going to win the elections once more or what happens if they lose? What are the expected outcomes of the election?

Georgian Dream wants to win the election once more and rule the country until 2030 at least. They say that “We are normal government which gives Georgian people peace but not war.” “If we win, we guarantee our people peace.” This is their campaign discourse: “No war.” They are telling people “you will choose whether you want war or peace by your vote”. But we also have political opposition which will participate in the elections. In general, it’s Georgian people’s choice. People will decide who will win. In my opinion, the majority will vote for the opposition. This is very important that today Georgian Dream has very bad relations with the United States, the EU and NATO. They have good relations only with Russian Federation. The majority of the population is not happy with this situation. Russia has occupied South Ossetia and Abkhazia and this is no good for our country. 

Russia’s strategy is to create a buffer zone in the regions where there is possibility of NATO’s rapprochement. In case there will be a clash between NATO and Russia, those buffer zones will be used. Russia applies the same strategy in Donbass region, in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Do you presume that Georgian Dream is highly aware of this strategy and they believe that if they sustain good relations with Russia, they are preventing more occupation by Russia?

I think this idea will not save the country. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said that they will not cancel the recognition of independence in Georgian territory. They recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and now he says that they will not reconsider this situation. There is no question about it. There is not a possibility that if we have close relations with Russia, they will give us our land back. They have already recognized the independence of those regions. In South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there are Russian troops and military bases. 

Majority of Georgian people want South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be returned to Georgia. They want Russian troops to step back. And in this case, the US and the EU do not want to have relations with Georgian government while Georgian Dream is ruling. In the previous week, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhizde was in the US for the United Nations General Assembly. He received an invitation from the US President Joe Biden for the Gala dinner of the event. Just before one hour of the Gala dinner, the US side cancelled the invitation of Kobakhidze because the US thinks that Kobakhidze is not a friend of the West. Georgian government also declares negative statement regarding the US and the EU.

Then, why did the US invite Georgian Prime Minister in the first if they think that Kobakhidze is not a friend of Washington? And done hour before the event, they decided to cancel. Was it a kind of revenge? Maybe the US wanted to damage the image of Georgia in front of international community.

This is very good question. I don’t know why they invite and then cancel. If they did not invite at all, it would be better. First inviting and then cancelling it is worse. The US might want to damage the image of not Georgia but the government. The US put 60 Georgian politicians from the government in the sanction list, cancelled their visa and also applied financial sanctions. This is because of LGBT and foreign agency law. Yes, I agree that the US did it in purpose. Because, for example, some official delegations come to Georgia from the US or NATO and Georgian government does not meet with them and they ignore them. Georgian government always criticize the US. If you behave in this way and they can do the same or even the worse.

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Role in Georgian Politics: Despite announcing his retirement, Bidzina Ivanishvili is widely believed to still have a strong influence over Georgian Dream and politics in Georgia. How do you view his continued involvement in politics, and what impact does it have on Georgian democracy?

He is very rich person and he rules all politics in Georgia including government, parliament, justice system and more. He controls everything. That’s why he wanted to stay, so that he could continue to govern not openly. He doesn’t occupy, but he sits there. He is like for democracy in Georgia, this is very bad. And that’s why we can’t develop. If he controls everything, that’s why Americans and Europeans say that this is not democracy and while he is ruling everything we cannot contribute to the democracy of Georgia. For Georgian democracy, 20 years rule of the same party is not good. It is like dictatorship. 

There is another important point. Ivanishvili was also presenting the pre-election program. Now he is emphasizing that we will win, and this time they will remain after this, they will condemn here all the opposition parties, judge them and close the parties. They accuse opposition parties that they started the war with Russia in 2008 and cause the occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 

Do you think that opposition parties can challenge Georgian Dream in the elections? What do the public polls say? Is there any powerful opposition party which can win against Georgian Dream?

Georgian people will decide whom to win. I cannot say that Georgian Dream has no support. They also have their strong supporters. It is, in this case, hard to tell who is going to win. According to public polls, if there will be election tomorrow, Georgian Dream will get 35% of the votes. Opposition parties’ votes range from 15% to 20%. There are four opposition parties which are united to join elections under the name of “National Movement”. We will see whether the elections will be safe. There will be also international observers to ensure election security. 

We want four or five political parties’ coalition in the Georgian Parliament. Opposition wants coalition but Georgian Dream wants to 60% of the votes so that they can change constitutional law with the majority threshold. They really want to achieve this. But opposition parties want to take place in the parliament to represent different wishes of the people by establishing a coalition.

Georgia recently achieved EU candidate status, an important milestone. However, concerns about de-oligarchizing and democratic backsliding remain. What reforms do you believe are critical for Georgia to move forward with EU integration?

Georgian people want protection of their rights. But Georgian Dream has already passed the law on foreign agents and banning LGBT propaganda. The EU has suspended the cooperation with the government. If there will not be the protection human rights, we will never be a member to the EU. The problem is that Georgian Dream thinks that those are normal laws and they are good. But the majority of people want to join the EU. That’s why we cannot forecast the future about the EU. 

Russia continues to occupy 20% of Georgian territory, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Given the complex geopolitical situation, how does Georgia balance its European aspirations with its ongoing relationship with Russia?

This is a difficult question. There is a risk moment now. In my opinion, we need a balance between the Russia and Europe. Until elections, the situation will go the same. But after the elections, the results will show us which direction Georgia is going. Now, Georgian Dream has very close relations with Russia but if opposition wins, things will change. Maybe the relationship with Moscow will not be cancelled totally, but things can change. Now, Russian citizens can enter Georgia and stay without visa up to 3 months. Maybe, after the elections, if opposition wins, there can be visa applied to Russian citizens. 

It looks like with Georgian Dream, it is actually that European Union is a dream. Is that what you mean?

Yes, as long as Georgian Dream governs our country, there will not be relations with the EU and the US. This is what the EU’s special representative of Georgia told publicly short time ago. 

There have been reports of internal conflicts within Georgian Dream, including leadership reshuffles. Do you foresee any significant changes in the party’s structure or leadership ahead of the next elections?

In the backstage of Georgian Dream, there is only Bidzina Ivanishvili. The leader will be the person who he decides to be. There is not much discussion about it.

With Georgia’s strategic location and ongoing territorial disputes, how do you assess the country’s current security strategy, especially in light of regional instability?

Georgia tries to have a strategy but it is very difficult, because Georgia is a small country with three and a half million people. Against whom can we now have this strategy? What can be the only strategy? Here, if you do not want war from Russia you must receive security, as it is in the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Or you should take guarantee from even the US or the EU. From the region from whom can we get protection? From Azerbaijan or from Armenia or from Türkiye? Of course, we must think about protecting ourselves looking at the situation of Ukraine. Russia can cause danger in our country. If Georgia will change its direction and be part of NATO and join the EU, then it can receive protection from the West against Russians. 

Media freedom in Georgia has been a topic of concern. How do you view the current state of journalism and media independence in Georgia, particularly in the face of political pressure as a journalist working in media field for 35 years?

I can say that we have press freedom. There are private television channels including Formula TV supporting opposition. But a very rich businessman bought one tv news channel for opposition and he is not involved in the journalism and administration. There is also pro-government tv channel and newspaper which support Georgian Dream. Still, I cannot say that everything is independent. Media is about money and freedom depends on from where the money is coming because income from ads do not enough all the time. There are two options to finance media; either ads or external financing. 

What do you personally think about the laws on foreign agents and banning LGBT propaganda?

In my opinion, they are very bad laws. The law for foreign agents is not about transparency as it is stated to public. They claim that the aim of the law is to reveal the source of the money but we already have the different laws requiring the transparency of the budgets of civil society organizations and regulating the flow of the money. Similarly, LGBT law is also negative. I am not interested in who is sleeping with whom. Everybody is human and they have right to choose their partners. 

But the law is not about involving in the personal or sexual lives of the people but banning to do propaganda about LGBT.

What does propaganda mean? I do not agree with this. They gather as fifty people. They go to city center and make demonstration in Rustaveli Avenue. Cannot they do it? It is their right. According to the law, they must sit at home and do not go out. What is the problem with propaganda? I am not LGBT. Am I going to change because of their propaganda? There is not any problem. It’s nonsense. Today, on internet you can see all type of pornography. I do not see any problem with those demonstrations. Those people are born with LGBT orientation. I have the constitutional right to demonstrate on anything I want. Why do not they have the same right? I do not say that I approve LGBT or I agree with them. I say that they also have their constitutional right to demonstrate or propaganda.