MIDDLE EAST

Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?

Published

on

In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”

On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.

In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:

“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”

He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.

The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:

“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”

Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.

Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.

Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”

Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.

Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”

The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.

It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.

However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.

The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.

Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.

MOST READ

Exit mobile version