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Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?

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In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”

On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.

In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:

“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”

He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.

The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:

“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”

Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.

Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.

Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”

Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.

Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”

The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.

It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.

However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.

The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.

Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.

Middle East

Edan Alexander to be released today as Trump begins Middle East tour

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As US President Donald Trump embarks on a regional visit today, Edan Alexander, an Israeli-US citizen held hostage in Gaza since October 2023, is set to be released.

This move is seen as a “goodwill gesture” from Hamas to the Trump administration, fostering hopes for a potential new ceasefire between the warring factions.

The 21-year-old Alexander was abducted from his military base during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, raid on southern Israel. Subsequently, Israel launched its attacks on Gaza.

According to AFP, if released, Alexander would be the first hostage freed since Israel ended an 8-week ceasefire with Hamas in March and initiated intense aerial campaigns in Gaza. Hundreds have perished in Israeli strikes since then.

Israel states that 59 hostages, including Alexander, remain in Hamas’s custody. Roughly 24 of them are believed to be alive, with the remainder presumed dead. Hamas and its allied groups took approximately 250 people hostage in October 2023; some were subsequently released under ceasefire agreements.

US President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that Alexander’s release was “a step taken in good faith with the US, mediated by Qatar and Egypt.” Trump characterized the development as “significant progress towards bringing all living hostages and the remains of the deceased to their loved ones.”

Trump remarked, “I hope this step is the first of the final stages required to end this brutal war. I look forward to the day of celebration.”

Trump is scheduled to depart today for his inaugural official foreign trip, which encompasses Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Israel is not currently on his itinerary.

Trump’s Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, also arrived in Israel today and is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet. Discussions during the meeting will encompass nuclear negotiations with Iran and the hostage situation.

Alexander’s family is reportedly en route from the US to Israel.

A statement from Netanyahu’s office indicated the anticipated release of Alexander. However, the Israeli side underscored that no concessions were made in return for this development, nor was there any agreement for a ceasefire or the release of Palestinian prisoners.

As per the statement, Israel only agreed to establish a “safe corridor” for Alexander’s handover.

Meanwhile, a Hamas source informed AFP that mediators conveyed to Hamas that Israel would temporarily halt its attacks in Gaza for Alexander’s handover: “Hamas was informed that Israel ceased its air and ground operations exactly at 09:30 AM. This was done to create a safe corridor for Edan’s transfer and handover.”

As Hamas prepares to release Edan Alexander, criticism against Netanyahu has resurfaced.

During Netanyahu’s court hearing, where he is defending himself against corruption charges, a woman questioned, “While the American President is saving his own citizen, are you not ashamed to abandon theirs to death there?”

Opponents contend that Netanyahu is prolonging the war in Gaza for political gain and is not making sufficient efforts to rescue the hostages. Netanyahu, however, asserts his commitment to both rescuing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure.

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Shara proposes Trump Tower in Damascus for US meeting

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Ahmed Shara, Syria’s interim President, reportedly presented a proposal during his recent Gulf tour aiming to secure a face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump. This offer allegedly includes the construction of a Trump Tower in Damascus, the normalization of relations with Israel, and granting the US access to Syria’s oil and natural gas resources.

Still designated a terrorist by the US, Shara is actively seeking an agreement to normalize relations with Washington, secure the lifting of sanctions, and achieve international recognition. His proposal is framed as a strategic offer that addresses both US economic interests and regional stability.

According to a Reuters report, Jonathan Bass, an American businessman and staunch Trump supporter, is working with several Gulf countries and Syrian figures to facilitate a meeting between Ahmed Shara and Trump. This potential encounter, though considered a low probability, would occur during Trump’s planned visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Syria has prioritized the lifting of US sanctions to initiate its recovery process following more than 14 years of continuous conflict. However, implementing the conditions set by Washington continues to pose substantial challenges within the country.

Jonathan Bass contends that Shara’s presence in the same room as Trump, despite Shara’s past affiliation with Al-Qaeda and his continued presence on the US terror list, could potentially soften the White House’s outlook on Damascus and alleviate tensions along the Syria-Israel front.

Bass remarked, “Shara wants a business deal for his country’s future,” further explaining that this proposal encompasses energy cooperation, joint action against Iran, and direct engagement with Israel. Bass recounted, “He told me he wants a Trump Tower in Damascus. He wants peace with his neighbors. What he said was good for both the region and Israel.” Bass also conveyed that Shara personally identified with Trump, noting, “Both have survived assassination attempts in the past.”

Syrian government officials and the presidential office have not commented on the matter. However, the Syrian Presidency announced that Shara held a meeting with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last Sunday.

A source close to Shara indicated that a meeting with Trump remains a possibility, although it is currently unclear whether an official invitation has been extended. The source added, “Whether the meeting takes place will only be known at the last minute.”

A direct meeting between Ahmed Shara and Trump during Trump’s Middle East tour is considered improbable due to the demanding schedule, Trump’s evolving priorities, and a notable lack of consensus within his own team concerning Syria policy.

However, sources indicate that while a high-level US-Syrian meeting is planned during Trump’s visit, it is not expected to be a direct encounter between Trump and Shara.

Charles Lister, Director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute, commented, “Direct contact with Trump is viewed as the most effective approach, primarily because numerous ideological obstacles exist within the administration.”

Washington has yet to develop a comprehensive and consistent policy regarding Syria. Nevertheless, according to three distinct sources, including a US official, the US administration has recently been framing its relations with Syria predominantly through the lens of counter-terrorism.

This approach was also evident in the meeting between the US and Syrian Foreign Minister Esad Hasan Al-Shaybani in New York last month. The inclusion of a high-ranking counter-terrorism official from the State Department in the US delegation was interpreted as a clear signal of this focus.

Sources indicate that US officials conveyed to Al-Shaybani their assessment that the steps taken, particularly concerning the removal of foreign fighters serving in the Syrian army from high-ranking positions and their maximal expulsion, were deemed insufficient.

Furthermore, the US Treasury Department also communicated its own demands to the Damascus administration, consequently elevating the total number of Washington’s conditions to over 12.

James Hewitt, Spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated that the actions undertaken by Syria’s interim administration will largely determine whether the US will extend support or ease sanctions.

One of the primary objectives of Syria’s overtures to Washington is to convey that the country poses no threat to Israel. Notably, since the change of government in Damascus at the end of 2024, Israel has intensified its air strikes on Syria.

Israeli ground forces have occupied certain areas in the country’s southwest. While Tel Aviv asserts these actions are intended to protect minority communities in Syria, the Damascus administration perceives the attacks as a significant escalation of tension.

Last week, Shara confirmed that indirect talks with Israel were conducted via the United Arab Emirates. Reuters had previously reported that these contacts aimed to de-escalate regional tensions.

Jonathan Bass also stated that Shara had conveyed certain messages through him that could potentially pave the way for direct contact with Israel.

However, despite these overtures, Israel initiated new air strikes targeting areas near the presidential palace in Damascus. Tel Aviv asserted these attacks were carried out to protect the Druze minority in Syria.

Bass remarked, “Shara extended an olive branch to Israel, and Israel responded with a missile,” and he added, “Trump is needed to mend this relationship.”

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Qatar to fund Syrian public sector salaries

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Qatar will provide a monthly grant of $29 million for three months to support the economic recovery of the new administration led by HTS in Syria.

Syrian Finance Minister Muhammed Barniyeh announced that Qatar would provide support for the payment of salaries for public sector employees. The minister stated that this aid is exempt from US sanctions.

In a statement to the state news agency SANA on Wednesday night, Syrian Finance Minister Muhammed Barniyeh said, “We thank the government of Qatar for its generous grant to cover a portion of current salary and wage payments.”

Barniyeh stated that the aid would be $29 million per month for three months and would cover salaries in sectors such as health, education, and social services, as well as non-military pensions.

Emphasizing that this mechanism is exempt from US sanctions, Barniyeh also thanked the US Department of the Treasury for its swift response on the matter.

Since overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad administration in December, the interim administration has increased its diplomatic contacts aimed at lifting US and EU sanctions.

Finance Minister Barniyeh said he hoped this financial support would be “the beginning of new steps.” Barniyeh stated that the aid would be managed through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and covers approximately one-fifth of current public salaries, which is 20%.

Qatar is among the leading regional supporters of the new interim government in Syria, alongside Turkey. In January, diplomatic sources reported that Qatar was working on a plan to finance the new administration in Syria to increase public salaries.

In addition to this move, Qatar, along with Saudi Arabia, decided in recent weeks to assume a portion of Syria’s debts to the World Bank Group.

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