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Diplomacy

US and China agree to cut tariffs, signaling trade war ease

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The US and China, in a significant step in the tariff war that threatened to disrupt trade between the world’s two largest economies, have agreed to reduce tariffs for the next 90 days.

Under the agreement reached in Geneva, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on goods imported from the US from 125% to 10%. The development was announced on Monday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that “significant progress” was made during two days of trade talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, signaling that Washington and Beijing could begin to de-escalate tensions.

“We will provide details tomorrow, but I can say that the talks were fruitful,” Bessent told reporters after his meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which were also attended by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Greer commented, “It is important to understand how quickly we reached an agreement, which perhaps indicates that the differences were not as significant as perceived,” adding that “a lot of groundwork had been done.”

Optimistic statements from the US negotiating team were the first indication that the countries could calm the trade war that had shaken financial markets and caused concerns about global supply chains.

The US applied a 145% tariff on goods from China, and Beijing retaliated with a 125% tariff.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment regarding China’s stance on the negotiations. The US and Chinese negotiating teams met at the residence of Switzerland’s UN ambassador in Geneva.

After the first day of negotiations on Saturday, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the US and China had made “great progress.” Trump used the phrase, “a friendly but constructively negotiated full reset.”

According to analysts, the China-US talks held over the weekend are not only economically and politically significant for both sides but also mark the beginning of a long-term process to address tariffs and other trade barriers.

This positive step seen in Geneva, Switzerland, will provide both powers with temporary domestic political relief without appearing weak in the trade war.

Matteo Giovannini, a visiting researcher at the Center for China and Globalization, stated, “The US side is under political pressure to show gains.”

“On the other hand, China views the negotiations not as a singular outcome but as a strategic process to manage bilateral competition, economic resilience, and long-term development goals,” said Giovannini, noting that Beijing’s behavior indicated a game plan based on strategic patience and economic self-preservation.

Speaking to the South China Morning Post, Giovannini added, “By building resilience, China aims to protect its domestic economy from external shocks while selectively engaging in global markets.”

Giovannini, who is also a senior financial manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, emphasized that Trump’s characterization of the Geneva talks as an “agreement” could serve many short-term political purposes.

“This signals progress without making concrete commitments and allows the Trump administration to postpone further tariff increases while appearing strong,” he said. He further added, “This strengthens Trump’s image as a dealmaker by turning the trade issue from a stalemate into an evolving success story.”

Giovannini also noted that bringing a positive outlook to the situation could “calm financial markets or increase business support,” stating that this would give Trump “an advantage in domestic politics and at the negotiating table.”

Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a former US trade negotiator specializing in the economic impact of US-China competition, stated that the agreement reached on establishing a consultation mechanism was not a trade deal but an agreement to continue negotiations.

Neither side fully disclosed which topics were discussed, but analysts estimate that negotiators addressed potential reductions in tariffs on goods critically needed by one of the parties.

Olson said, “Given the political capital both sides have spent to initiate negotiations and then characterize the talks very positively, the ground appears set for at least a partial tariff reduction and progress on other issues such as fentanyl in the coming weeks and months.”

Brian Wong, a researcher at the Centre for Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, said that while the US presented the agreement as a Trumpian success story and “deal,” Beijing’s plan was to focus on strengthening its trade relations with the world.

Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics, a research firm in Singapore, said that tariff reductions on US exports of oil, gas, and agricultural products to China, along with China’s exports of textiles, apparel, and electrical products to the US, are currently on the table.

Biswas stated that US aircraft manufacturer Boeing could also come up in discussions if both sides discuss whether to restart civil aircraft exports to China.

Biswas, predicting numerous rounds of negotiations stemming from the weekend talks to occur in the coming months, also stated that there would be a long-term “tech war” in the fields of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and defense technology.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the French investment bank Natixis, said that Chinese exporters are concerned about being forced to close their businesses because tariffs have virtually halted their trade with the US.

Garcia-Herrero described the weekend dialogue as “like a ceasefire.”

“They cannot keep fighting because they do not have the resources for it,” she said.

Diplomacy

South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute

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The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.

According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.

The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.

Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.

Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.

Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.

Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul expects a public apology

Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.

President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.

Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.

Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.

Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.

The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.

Moscow warned foreign diplomats

On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.

The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.

The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.

Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”

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Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle

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US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.

White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.

“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”

In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.

According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.

The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.

Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.

“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”

Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.

Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.

These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.

Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.

In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.

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