Diplomacy
US and United Kingdom sign limited trade deal
The US and the United Kingdom have signed a significant trade agreement after years of negotiations.
Under the agreement, the 10% “reciprocal” tariff rate applied to British goods remains unchanged, while the United Kingdom will benefit from exemptions on steel and automobiles and increased market access for agricultural exports.
The agreement also leaves the door open for further negotiations in the future. US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “The final details will be written in the coming weeks.”
Speaking by phone at the White House press conference, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the agreement as “historic,” stating, “This will increase trade between our countries. It will not only protect jobs but also create employment and open up market access.”
Although the agreement is far from a comprehensive free trade agreement, the United Kingdom became the first country to sign such a deal with Trump.
British automotive sector breathes a sigh of relief
The most significant change is the exemption from the general 25% additional tariff applied to steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Under the agreement, tariffs on British car exports will be reduced to 10%, with an annual quota of 100,000 units.
British prime ministerial sources say this figure is almost equal to the total amount the United Kingdom exported last year. If this quota is exceeded, vehicles will be subject to the 25% tariff.
On the other hand, this rate is four times the 2.5% tariff the UK benefited from before Trump’s second presidential term.
Nevertheless, the reduction in tariffs will provide much-needed relief to British car manufacturers, who exported £9 billion last year and are the United Kingdom’s largest goods exporter to the US.
Reciprocal steps in the steel and aerospace sectors
The agreement completely removes tariffs for the UK’s struggling steel industry, which is facing a crisis under the threat of blast furnace closures and job losses.
The US is currently the United Kingdom’s second most important steel export market after the EU: the American market accounts for 9% of the country’s steel exports by value and 7% by volume.
The US also promises exemptions for UK aerospace parts, while in return, the United Kingdom gains “preferential access” to aerospace components.
Speaking in the Oval Office, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, “We have agreed to allow Rolls Royce engines and aircraft parts of that nature to be imported tariff-free.”
Initially, aerospace parts, including those previously exempted for security reasons, were included in the general 10% reciprocal tariff.
London did not compromise on digital tax
It came as a surprise to many that the United Kingdom did not compromise on the digital services tax despite US pressure to reduce the tax. The 2% tax targets the revenues of tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Google and is estimated to generate £800 million this year. This tax had long drawn criticism from the US on the grounds that it discriminated against American companies.
But as POLITICO first reported on Thursday, the tax did not change as part of the agreement.
Instead, both countries decided to work on a digital trade agreement to eliminate bureaucracy for exporters and simplify customs procedures.
Christine Bliss, President of the Coalition of Services Industries, said in a statement, “The UK’s digital services tax needs to be discussed and addressed in more detail to ensure it is applied fairly to American service providers.”
The technology agreement also envisages greater cooperation in areas such as biotechnology, life sciences, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and aerospace.
There was also no compromise on the United Kingdom’s online safety rules, which was a great relief for campaigners.
The London government had announced last month, under pressure from Washington, that online safety rules would be reviewed in trade talks with the US, drawing significant backlash.
The United Kingdom’s US Ambassador Peter Mandelson told POLITICO he was “very pleased with the outcome,” adding that his country had “achieved all its main demands and that the agreement will now open the door to a deeper and longer-term US-UK technology partnership.”
Reciprocal market openness and food standards in agriculture
In a move met with skepticism by the agricultural lobby in Great Britain, the countries signed a new reciprocal market access agreement on beef. Under the agreement, British farmers were granted a tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tons and a reduced tariff rate of between 4% and 10%.
On the other hand, US farmers will also be able to export the same amount of beef to the UK tariff-free.
But more importantly, all imported meat must comply with United Kingdom food standards. This means British farmers can breathe a sigh of relief that hormone-treated beef will not be arriving at their doors anytime soon.
Food standards had been a contentious issue since the United Kingdom-US free trade agreement negotiations began under the first Trump administration in May 2020.
A boon for ethanol exports to the US
In a surprise move, the US was also granted a new tariff-free ethanol quota for the first 1.4 billion liters. Previously, US ethanol exported to the United Kingdom was subject to a tariff of between 10% and 50%, depending on its use.
Speaking at the White House press conference, Trump said the agreement would “significantly” increase market access for American beef, ethanol, and almost all products produced by large farmers.
According to White House documents, the agreement will create “$5 billion in new export opportunities for US farmers, ranchers, and producers.” More than $700 million of this figure will come from ethanol exports, and $250 million from other agricultural products such as beef.
Tom Bradshaw, President of the National Farmers Union, said, “Our biggest concern is that the heavy burden of tariff removal in other sectors of the economy is being placed on the shoulders of two agricultural sectors,” adding that British agriculture “cannot continue to bear such imbalances in future negotiations.”
Bradshaw also added that the inclusion of bioethanol in the agreement “raises concerns for British arable farmers,” and said they were examining what this means for the sustainability of domestic bioethanol production and its potential impact on their members.
The White House also announced that the countries have decided to work together to improve industrial and agricultural market access.
Preferential treatment for pharmaceuticals
The agreement will also allow Britain to negotiate a preferential outcome on pharmaceutical tariffs, even though the US has not yet imposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
Pharmaceuticals are the United Kingdom’s second largest export item to the US. The UK exported £6.6 billion worth of pharmaceuticals last year, and this figure accounted for 11.1% of the country’s total exports to the US.
On April 1, Trump launched an investigation into the impact of pharmaceutical imports on national security and announced on Tuesday that he would impose tariffs on this sector “in the next two weeks.”
On the other hand, it is not yet clear whether the United Kingdom will receive preferential treatment regarding the tariffs Trump will impose on the film industry.
Over the weekend, the US President threatened to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films, saying that incentives offered by other countries to attract filmmakers to their countries posed a threat to US national security.
Caroline Dinenage, Chair of the Culture Committee, argued that tariffs on films were “contrary to the interests of American companies” due to “investments in UK facilities and talent based on intellectual property rights held by the US.”
Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said, “At this stage, it is not clear exactly what kind of tariffs the US is proposing to apply in relation to films.”
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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