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Global military spending hits record high in 2024, SIPRI reports

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According to the annual report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), total global military expenditures reached an all-time high of $2.718 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% increase from the previous year.

This figure represents 2.5% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The report, titled Trends In World Military Expenditure, 2024, states that this increase is the sharpest rise seen since 1988, and per capita military spending reached its highest level since 1990 at $334.

According to the report, 80% of global expenditures ($2.185 trillion) and 79% of the total increase belong to just 15 countries.

Analysts noted that the countries with the largest increases in spending in 2024 were Israel (65%) and Russia (38%), linking this to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

While there were minor changes in the ranking of the top five countries with the highest defense spending, the top three remained unchanged.

The US, China, and Russia maintained their leading positions. Germany rose to fourth place, while India dropped to fifth.

The ranking of other countries in the top 10 largely remained the same; Saudi Arabia moved into seventh place, which was held by Germany in 2023.

Top 10 Countries and Their Expenditures (2024):

1) US: $997 billion (3.4% of national GDP, 37% of global expenditures)

2) China: $314 billion (1.7% of GDP, 12% of global expenditures)

3) Russia: $149 billion (7.1% of GDP, 5.5% of global expenditures) – SIPRI estimate

4) Germany: $88.5 billion (1.9% of GDP, 3.3% of global expenditures)

5) India: $86.1 billion (2.3% of GDP, 3.2% of global expenditures)

6) United Kingdom: $81.8 billion (2.3% of GDP, 3% of global expenditures)

7) Saudi Arabia: $80.3 billion (7.3% of GDP, 3% of global expenditures) – SIPRI estimate

8) Ukraine: $64.7 billion (34% of GDP, 2.4% of global expenditures)

9) France: $64.7 billion (2.1% of GDP, 2.4% of global expenditures)

10) Japan: $55.3 billion (1.4% of GDP, 2% of global expenditures)

US military spending is shaped by the goals outlined in the 2022 National Defense Strategy: deterring Russia in the short term and China in the long term.

Washington allocated $246 billion for “integrated deterrence” in 2024. Of this budget, $37.7 billion was spent on modernizing the nuclear arsenal, $29.8 billion on missile defense systems, $61.1 billion on weapons for F-35 fighter jets, and $48.1 billion on new ships.

Additional expenditures included $48.4 billion in aid to Ukraine and $10.6 billion in aid to Israel.

China, whose military spending has increased continuously for the past 30 years, is investing in the comprehensive modernization of its armed forces and aims to complete this process by 2035.

Last year, Beijing particularly developed low-visibility fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and unmanned underwater vehicles.

China also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and has begun establishing aerospace and cyber forces.

According to SIPRI’s estimates, Russia’s military spending increased by 38% in 2024 compared to 2023.

Analysts note that after the large-scale conflict began in Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s budget became much less transparent, and military spending is likely higher than the institute’s estimate of $149 billion.

According to the report, a significant portion of these funds went to financing arms purchases and subsidies for some arms manufacturers.

Another major expenditure item was military personnel payments, which reached $9.4 billion as of October 2024.

SIPRI states that it provides approximate estimates for Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia. Sergey Chemezov, Head of Russia’s state-owned defense industry company Rostec, criticized SIPRI’s calculation methodology regarding defense sector companies, stating, “We do not publish this data, like other countries such as China; it is confidential. Where do they get the data? They make it up.”

Germany rose from seventh place to fourth in 2024, becoming Europe’s largest military spender for the first time since reunification in 1990.

Berlin continues to replenish the €100 billion off-budget fund created in 2022 to increase the military budget. This fund partially finances arms purchases and military research.

In 2024, Germany provided $7.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine, becoming the second-largest donor after the US.

India, on the other hand, dropped from fourth to fifth place in 2024. The country, one of the world’s largest arms importers, aims to reduce its dependence on imports and allocates approximately 22% of its military spending to domestic procurement.

While New Delhi has made significant progress in producing armored vehicles, helicopters, and submarines in recent years, it is still dependent on imports for advanced systems such as fighter jets.

Ukraine’s expenditure of $64.7 billion represents 34% of its GDP, making it the country with the largest military burden in the world by this measure. All of the country’s tax revenues are directed towards defense spending, while non-military socio-economic needs are met through foreign aid.

In 2024, the total military expenditures of the 32 NATO countries amounted to $1.506 trillion, accounting for 55% of global expenditures. Of this figure, $454 billion belonged to European allies.

All European countries except Iceland (which does not have a standing army) increased their defense spending in 2024.

Alliance members spent an average of 16% more compared to 2023. This increase ranged from 0.4% in Spain to 43% in Romania, while the country that increased its military spending the most over the last decade was Lithuania (plus 272%).

NATO countries agreed in 2014 to allocate 2% of their GDP to defense. As of 2024, two-thirds of the alliance have reached this target.

US President Donald Trump, who previously demanded at least 2% spending from European allies, has now increased this demand to 5%.

According to SIPRI’s calculations, to reach this target, European allies would have needed to spend an additional $663 billion (143%) on top of their actual expenditures in 2024.

SIPRI analysts point out that the rapid increase in military spending places a significant financial burden on national budgets. Some governments are redirecting resources from other areas to defense.

For example, the United Kingdom plans to reduce overseas development aid, while Japan is considering increasing income, corporate, and tobacco taxes.

Myanmar, on the other hand, cut social programs and increased the share of military spending in its budget from 16% to 29%.

SIPRI predicts that this situation could lead to negative long-term socio-economic consequences, affecting the most vulnerable segments of the population and deepening economic and social inequalities.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Diplomacy

Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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