Diplomacy
Global military spending hits record high in 2024, SIPRI reports
According to the annual report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), total global military expenditures reached an all-time high of $2.718 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% increase from the previous year.
This figure represents 2.5% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The report, titled Trends In World Military Expenditure, 2024, states that this increase is the sharpest rise seen since 1988, and per capita military spending reached its highest level since 1990 at $334.
According to the report, 80% of global expenditures ($2.185 trillion) and 79% of the total increase belong to just 15 countries.
Analysts noted that the countries with the largest increases in spending in 2024 were Israel (65%) and Russia (38%), linking this to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.
While there were minor changes in the ranking of the top five countries with the highest defense spending, the top three remained unchanged.
The US, China, and Russia maintained their leading positions. Germany rose to fourth place, while India dropped to fifth.
The ranking of other countries in the top 10 largely remained the same; Saudi Arabia moved into seventh place, which was held by Germany in 2023.
Top 10 Countries and Their Expenditures (2024):
1) US: $997 billion (3.4% of national GDP, 37% of global expenditures)
2) China: $314 billion (1.7% of GDP, 12% of global expenditures)
3) Russia: $149 billion (7.1% of GDP, 5.5% of global expenditures) – SIPRI estimate
4) Germany: $88.5 billion (1.9% of GDP, 3.3% of global expenditures)
5) India: $86.1 billion (2.3% of GDP, 3.2% of global expenditures)
6) United Kingdom: $81.8 billion (2.3% of GDP, 3% of global expenditures)
7) Saudi Arabia: $80.3 billion (7.3% of GDP, 3% of global expenditures) – SIPRI estimate
8) Ukraine: $64.7 billion (34% of GDP, 2.4% of global expenditures)
9) France: $64.7 billion (2.1% of GDP, 2.4% of global expenditures)
10) Japan: $55.3 billion (1.4% of GDP, 2% of global expenditures)
US military spending is shaped by the goals outlined in the 2022 National Defense Strategy: deterring Russia in the short term and China in the long term.
Washington allocated $246 billion for “integrated deterrence” in 2024. Of this budget, $37.7 billion was spent on modernizing the nuclear arsenal, $29.8 billion on missile defense systems, $61.1 billion on weapons for F-35 fighter jets, and $48.1 billion on new ships.
Additional expenditures included $48.4 billion in aid to Ukraine and $10.6 billion in aid to Israel.
China, whose military spending has increased continuously for the past 30 years, is investing in the comprehensive modernization of its armed forces and aims to complete this process by 2035.
Last year, Beijing particularly developed low-visibility fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and unmanned underwater vehicles.
China also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and has begun establishing aerospace and cyber forces.
According to SIPRI’s estimates, Russia’s military spending increased by 38% in 2024 compared to 2023.
Analysts note that after the large-scale conflict began in Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s budget became much less transparent, and military spending is likely higher than the institute’s estimate of $149 billion.
According to the report, a significant portion of these funds went to financing arms purchases and subsidies for some arms manufacturers.
Another major expenditure item was military personnel payments, which reached $9.4 billion as of October 2024.
SIPRI states that it provides approximate estimates for Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia. Sergey Chemezov, Head of Russia’s state-owned defense industry company Rostec, criticized SIPRI’s calculation methodology regarding defense sector companies, stating, “We do not publish this data, like other countries such as China; it is confidential. Where do they get the data? They make it up.”
Germany rose from seventh place to fourth in 2024, becoming Europe’s largest military spender for the first time since reunification in 1990.
Berlin continues to replenish the €100 billion off-budget fund created in 2022 to increase the military budget. This fund partially finances arms purchases and military research.
In 2024, Germany provided $7.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine, becoming the second-largest donor after the US.
India, on the other hand, dropped from fourth to fifth place in 2024. The country, one of the world’s largest arms importers, aims to reduce its dependence on imports and allocates approximately 22% of its military spending to domestic procurement.
While New Delhi has made significant progress in producing armored vehicles, helicopters, and submarines in recent years, it is still dependent on imports for advanced systems such as fighter jets.
Ukraine’s expenditure of $64.7 billion represents 34% of its GDP, making it the country with the largest military burden in the world by this measure. All of the country’s tax revenues are directed towards defense spending, while non-military socio-economic needs are met through foreign aid.
In 2024, the total military expenditures of the 32 NATO countries amounted to $1.506 trillion, accounting for 55% of global expenditures. Of this figure, $454 billion belonged to European allies.
All European countries except Iceland (which does not have a standing army) increased their defense spending in 2024.
Alliance members spent an average of 16% more compared to 2023. This increase ranged from 0.4% in Spain to 43% in Romania, while the country that increased its military spending the most over the last decade was Lithuania (plus 272%).
NATO countries agreed in 2014 to allocate 2% of their GDP to defense. As of 2024, two-thirds of the alliance have reached this target.
US President Donald Trump, who previously demanded at least 2% spending from European allies, has now increased this demand to 5%.
According to SIPRI’s calculations, to reach this target, European allies would have needed to spend an additional $663 billion (143%) on top of their actual expenditures in 2024.
SIPRI analysts point out that the rapid increase in military spending places a significant financial burden on national budgets. Some governments are redirecting resources from other areas to defense.
For example, the United Kingdom plans to reduce overseas development aid, while Japan is considering increasing income, corporate, and tobacco taxes.
Myanmar, on the other hand, cut social programs and increased the share of military spending in its budget from 16% to 29%.
SIPRI predicts that this situation could lead to negative long-term socio-economic consequences, affecting the most vulnerable segments of the population and deepening economic and social inequalities.
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
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