Which agenda is on the table during Xi’s visit to Tajikistan?

Firdavs Jalily, Journalist, Dushanbe

Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a visit to China on Thursday, 4th of July, amid at bolstering up further bilateral ties between Beijing and Dushanbe. This would be Xi’s third state visit to Tajikistan and the experts believes that his visit would surely write a new chapter for the friendship of the two countries. Xi’s counterpart Emomali Rahmon will welcome him to the Dushanbe and Xi has already expressed his joy to visit Tajikistan as he called a “good neighbor and good brother.”

To further explore on Xi’s visit, we interviewed Political Scientist Abdugani Mamadazimov, who is also Chairman of the Association of Independent Political Scientists of Tajikistan.

Mamadazimov, who continues his studies at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies of the Tajik National University, focuses on the revitalisation of the Silk Road. Among the monographs written by Mamadazimov, who is the author of the “Consolidation Road” project, the notable ones are: “The Great Silk Road” (2014) and “Silk Diplomacy” (2023).

Mr. Mamadazimov said that bilateral ties between Tajikistan and China have made significant progress since the establishment of their diplomatic ties, evolving from strategic partners to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Here is his full interview.

‘Bilateral and multilateral events will rise to a new level between Tajikistan and China’

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Tajikistan on July 4. In your opinion, how is the circle of this trip? What are Tajikistan’s expectations from this trip? Will Xi’s trip lead to specific cooperation between the two countries?

To determine the nature of the Chinese President’s state visit to Tajikistan, we must go a little bit in the back. In the month of September 2017, in the city of Sin-Vienna, China, on the sidelines of the high-level meeting of BRICS+, the leader of our nation, Emomali Rahman, and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, had agreed on two parts.

First: Turning the bilateral strategy partner into a joint strategic partner at the highest level;

Second: Convergence of the national growth strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2035 with the Chinese the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plan;

We had adopted the national growth strategy of Tajikistan in December. Since 2017, the growth of the total domestic products of Tajikistan has been more than 7pc every year. It can be said that this growth is mainly dependent on the convergence of the national growth strategy of Tajikistan for the period up to 2035 of the BRI project.

Through this, Tajikistan was able to revive the national bills in various sectors of the economy, including the cement industry, farming, gold plating, and textiles, and these sectors are developing.

Therefore, our main expectation is that after this important trip, special attention will be paid to unused capacities and new directions of good bilateral relations will be opened.

Of course, those who study relations with China are mostly looking for new developments. If we also talk only about those, an example is the new building of the Tajik Parliament, which is located in front of the National Palace (President’s residence) and this has been build with Chinese wisdom and support. It can indicate that after its opening with the participation of the two presidents, bilateral and multilateral events will rise to a new level between Tajikistan and China.

‘We will join the Middle Corridor’

What is the importance of the BRI for Tajikistan? Will a specific action be taken regarding the Kashghar-Dushanbe corridor with this trip?

It is worth reminding that a conference was held on June 24 of this year with the initiative of the research centers of Tajikistan and Gansun province of China. I proposed two important issue in this conference and one of them was the North Pamir-Lakhsh-Rasht-Vahdat-Dushanbe railway.

In the future, this road can take us to Mashhad in Iran through Herat, Afghanistan. This proposal will be futuristic, because the width of Chinese, Iranian and Turkish railways is the European standard.

We and other post-Soviet countries have other shelters. Therefore, by this means we will conform to the global standards and in the future we will join the “Middle Corridor”, which can become a promising economic corridor. This is because the “Northern Corridor” passes through Russia, Ukraine. But at the moment there is war and unrest in these areas.

The “Southern Corridor” is in crisis due to the war between Israel and Hamas. The “Middle Corridor”, which crosses Iran and Turkey, has the urgency to increase and this will be reassuring for a long time.

I believe that this issue will be investigated in the talks between the leaders of the two countries, because this proposal was well accepted by both sides and it was also included in the final announcement of this conference. Finally, the center of strategy review has submitted to the government of Tajikistan to review this big project.

‘5+1 format provides the possibility of establishing freer relations’

Last year, China hosted the first meeting of the heads of Central Asian countries. Before this meeting, cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia was always done within the framework of bilateral engagement. But in this conference, China took a big step for itself for the first time and reached a new level of cooperation with the region. Has there been significant progress in China’s relations with Central Asia after this meeting?

5+1 format was proposed and implemented by Japan in 2004. This Japanese diplomacy was followed by other powers and organizations. Only China and Russia did not pay attention to such diplomatic occasions until last year.

China prioritized the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in its relations with Central Asian countries. After the contagion of covid-19, China and Russia preferred the 5+1 format.  Unlike the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the aforementioned format provides the possibility of establishing freer relations.

In this way, China established a new framework for cooperation. In the framework of the 5+1 format, China can establish cooperation with any Central Asian country, both individually and with the region.

Meanwhile, the Central Asian countries also accepted it. The first meeting of the heads of Central Asian countries and China was held in the hometown of the Chinese leader, Sin City, on May 18, 2023.

As we know, last years, Tajikistan did not lean money from China, it only received grants. In this meeting, our country succeeded in receiving a concessional loan of 500 million dollars from Asian Bank for Infrastructural Investments. This amount will be spent on the foundation of “Raghoon” power plant. Also, several mutually beneficial agreements were signed between Tajikistan and Chinese companies. Other Central Asian countries also opened new windows of cooperation with China in the form of 5+1. In general, this format made it possible to improve relations between China and Central Asian countries. The positive aspect of this 5+1 format is, first of all, that Central Asia is accepted as a single region.

The other side of the issue is that the countries of the region tend to be consumers rather than producers and entrepreneurs. From this point of view, they should act together, so that the entrepreneur turned into, be safe from some of the negative consequences of the said format.

‘As much as our country progresses economically, the fight against the terrorism will be equally fruitful’

China’s relations with Central Asian countries are usually economic, but it also has security relations with Tajikistan. The two countries agreed to hold a joint anti-terrorism exercise in 2024. Tajikistan is a strategically important country for China because it shares a border with Afghanistan. China is worried about the threat of terrorism and extremism in the region. In your opinion, will these security events be developed in the future? Does it turn into all-round military defense occasions?

In 2004, we took over the independent provision of our border security. Until this time, Russia was responsible for guarding the borders of Tajikistan. Fortunately, in the last 20 years, no large-scale or medium-sized group has crossed one of the most famous borders in the world, the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

I am proudly say this to the Chinese officials when I meet them in conferences that we not only secure our borders, but also contribute to the security of the countries of Central Asia, the countries that are members of the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

However, the Chinese side should understand this and should not forget the contribution of Tajikistan’s power and security institutions. I can give an example from history. The two powerful Chinese empires, Han and Tang, sent 11pc of the income they earned from the Silk Road account to the northern tribes voluntarily, so that they would not disturb the security with their usurping attacks. We do not want this, but China should not ignore the efforts of the Tajik army. Not only strengthening the border surveillance of Tajikistan and Afghanistan, but also improving the economic situation of the regions near the border of Great China should help us. As much as our country progresses economically, the fight against the phenomena of terrorism and defamation will be equally fruitful.

I think it is Afghanistan, which has become a safe haven for terrorist group. Many terrorist groups operate freely in this country, some of which are formed by citizens of Tajikistan and China, which is a common threat to both countries. I believe that this issue is understood and investigated at the highest level. Strengthening security cooperation will be one of the important positions for today and tomorrow between Tajikistan and China.

‘Contrary to China, western countries are trying to interfere in the internal affairs’

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Tajikistan last May. He stated that they will oppose the interference of foreign powers in the internal affairs of Tajikistan. What does “external intervention” mean?

One of the important policy of China which is very good,  in dealing with governments is not to interfere in their internal affairs of that country. The other side of the issue is related to China’s interests. It is beneficial for this country that the countries around it are calm, so that its economic plans can be implemented, but the field is not uncompetitive. First of all, China wants to use Tajikistan as a transit corridor. For this purpose, peace is the first priority.

Contrary to China, western countries are trying to interfere in the internal affairs by imposing some of their values in the form of “democracy” to regional countries, especially Tajikistan. From one point of view, this is rooted in regional and trans regional power competitions.

Values and classifications of Western Countries regarding freedom of expression, religion, homosexuality are such. While we are on the front line of the fight against extremism, it is not possible for Tajikistan to leave religious issues unattended. The introduction of any practices and religions, which are contrary to the Hanafi religion, causes discord and violence in the society.

Other phenomena such as homosexuality are not at all compatible with our national and religious culture, but it is encouraged using all means.

Thank you.

You are welcome.