Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift replacement of fallen leaders killed in various airstrikes and incdients, but this time it seems a bit difficult to do so in a nutshell.
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, has put Hamas under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started around 10 months ago.
Hamas apparently did not even seem to be discussing the most important issues of who was going to replace Haniyeh due the severe and deadly war that claimed plenty of lives, mainly civilians in Gaza. Close relatives of Haniyeh were also among those casualties.
At the same time Hamas is in a full-scale war against Israel, it cannot live in a leadership vacuum, and someone must be elected or appointed as a new head. The head of the political office of Hamas is elected once every four years in a confidential manner.
Haniyeh became president for the second time in July 2021, which will end in July 2025. The political office of Hamas has 19 members, and the chairman is elected by the majority of the members.
Saleh al-Arouri, the first deputy of Haniey was assassinated in January of this year in Beirut
The political leader has four deputies, two of whom lead Hamas offices in Gaza and the West Bank. Another deputy also carries out overseas activities and the other deputy has the authority of the second person who can manage the entire affairs in the absence of the president.
Saleh al-Arouri, the first deputy of Haniey was assassinated in January of this year following an Israeli attack in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. If he were alive, he could have succeeded Haniyeh. At the same time as the first deputy, al-Arouri was also the representative of Hamas in the West Bank. Now Zaher Jabarin has replaced him in the West Bank.
Yahya Sanwar is now responsible for the affairs of the Gaza Strip. Sanwar is a Hamas high-ranking official who allegedly launched the October 7 attack in Israel.
Moreover, the activities of Hamas abroad are under the responsibility of Khalid Meshaal, a figure that many believe is going to replace Haniyeh. The offices in Gaza, West Bank and abroad have 14 members each, who select the members of the office.
Khalid Meshaal to be elected as new head of Hamas, replacing Haniyeh
In 2021, Meshaal was elected to head the Hamas office in the Palestinian diaspora, but now seemingly he is going to take charge as a leader of Hamas following the mysterious assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
Meshaal is considered by many as one of the early figures of Hamas. Meshaal also worked as the head of the political office of Hamas between 1996-2007. Also the New York Times has reported about Meshaal as the new leader of Hamas.
As long as Ahmed Yassin and Aziz Rantisi, the main leaders and founders of Hamas, were alive, the head of the political office was not the general secretary or the leader. After the assassination of those two, the head of the political bureau is also referred to as the leader or the general secretary.
Meshaal was the target of an assassination attempt by Israel when he was in charge of the political office of Hamas in Jordan, but he survived. While he was walking in one of the streets of Amman, the capital of Jordan, people belonging to the Israeli intelligence agency (Mossad) sprayed poisonous substances in his ear, but he was saved after receiving an antidote from Tel Aviv.
At that time, the Jordanian government threatened Israel to cancel the peace agreement between the two sides. Also, Bill Clinton, the then Democratic President of the United States, persuaded the Israeli side to give antidotes. At that time, Benjamin Netanyahu became the prime minister of Israel for the first time. Meshaal was expelled from Jordan two years later and took refuge in Damascus, the capital of Syria, where he was active until February 2012.
Iran could likely stand against Meshaal as new leader of Hamas
Meshaal is considered the strongest option for leadership due to his fame and influence in Hamas. Even so, Meshaal’s selection seems unlikely, because Iran and the Islamist groups aligned with it in the Middle East are not on good terms with him.
Compared to Iran, Meshaal is more willing and puts his trust in Qatar and Turkey. Although he was a guest of Syria for more than ten years, he stood in favor of the protesters after the internal crisis of that country started. A factor that caused Bashar Assad, Iran and Hezbollah to be upset.
Following his action, Syria blocked the Hamas office in its territory. From then on, Hamas became a guest of Qatar and also Tehran stopped financial aid to Hamas for two years.
Meshaal has also visited Tehran less than other Hamas leaders. The most important effective factor in distancing him from Iran and its allies was the Brotherhood gaining power in Egypt because at that time Hamas was more inclined towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
It was a few months before the end of Meshaal’s presidency that the Hamas constitution was amended
At that time, the government of Egypt opened the Rafah crossing and Meshaal entered Gaza with a long convoy of cars after 45 years. In the presence of many Palestinians, he also kissed the territory of Gaza while giving a speech.
Moreover, it was a few months before the end of Meshaal’s presidency that the Hamas constitution was amended. The new constitution, which was unveiled on May 1, 2017, does not mention the connection between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. While the previous constitution was modeled after the Brotherhood.
More importantly, Hamas pledged to accept the formation of a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 borders, something that confirms the two-state plan and Israel’s formalism. Both amended clauses are not in accordance with the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies.
Hamas, which is now in a state of war and has been weakened, is trying to choose someone as its leader who is the trusted side of Iran and the so-called resistance movement in the Middle East. If Meshaal becomes the leader of Hamas again, he may not be able to establish a warm relationship with Tehran and that movement and gain more support to the extent of Haniyeh. Therefore, maybe the preference of the majority of Hamas members is the face of Tehran’s trusted side.
