Middle East
Who will replace Haniyeh as new Hamas chief?
Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift replacement of fallen leaders killed in various airstrikes and incdients, but this time it seems a bit difficult to do so in a nutshell.
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, has put Hamas under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started around 10 months ago.
Hamas apparently did not even seem to be discussing the most important issues of who was going to replace Haniyeh due the severe and deadly war that claimed plenty of lives, mainly civilians in Gaza. Close relatives of Haniyeh were also among those casualties.
At the same time Hamas is in a full-scale war against Israel, it cannot live in a leadership vacuum, and someone must be elected or appointed as a new head. The head of the political office of Hamas is elected once every four years in a confidential manner.
Haniyeh became president for the second time in July 2021, which will end in July 2025. The political office of Hamas has 19 members, and the chairman is elected by the majority of the members.
Saleh al-Arouri, the first deputy of Haniey was assassinated in January of this year in Beirut
The political leader has four deputies, two of whom lead Hamas offices in Gaza and the West Bank. Another deputy also carries out overseas activities and the other deputy has the authority of the second person who can manage the entire affairs in the absence of the president.
Saleh al-Arouri, the first deputy of Haniey was assassinated in January of this year following an Israeli attack in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. If he were alive, he could have succeeded Haniyeh. At the same time as the first deputy, al-Arouri was also the representative of Hamas in the West Bank. Now Zaher Jabarin has replaced him in the West Bank.
Yahya Sanwar is now responsible for the affairs of the Gaza Strip. Sanwar is a Hamas high-ranking official who allegedly launched the October 7 attack in Israel.
Moreover, the activities of Hamas abroad are under the responsibility of Khalid Meshaal, a figure that many believe is going to replace Haniyeh. The offices in Gaza, West Bank and abroad have 14 members each, who select the members of the office.
Khalid Meshaal to be elected as new head of Hamas, replacing Haniyeh
In 2021, Meshaal was elected to head the Hamas office in the Palestinian diaspora, but now seemingly he is going to take charge as a leader of Hamas following the mysterious assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
Meshaal is considered by many as one of the early figures of Hamas. Meshaal also worked as the head of the political office of Hamas between 1996-2007. Also the New York Times has reported about Meshaal as the new leader of Hamas.
As long as Ahmed Yassin and Aziz Rantisi, the main leaders and founders of Hamas, were alive, the head of the political office was not the general secretary or the leader. After the assassination of those two, the head of the political bureau is also referred to as the leader or the general secretary.
Meshaal was the target of an assassination attempt by Israel when he was in charge of the political office of Hamas in Jordan, but he survived. While he was walking in one of the streets of Amman, the capital of Jordan, people belonging to the Israeli intelligence agency (Mossad) sprayed poisonous substances in his ear, but he was saved after receiving an antidote from Tel Aviv.
At that time, the Jordanian government threatened Israel to cancel the peace agreement between the two sides. Also, Bill Clinton, the then Democratic President of the United States, persuaded the Israeli side to give antidotes. At that time, Benjamin Netanyahu became the prime minister of Israel for the first time. Meshaal was expelled from Jordan two years later and took refuge in Damascus, the capital of Syria, where he was active until February 2012.
Iran could likely stand against Meshaal as new leader of Hamas
Meshaal is considered the strongest option for leadership due to his fame and influence in Hamas. Even so, Meshaal’s selection seems unlikely, because Iran and the Islamist groups aligned with it in the Middle East are not on good terms with him.
Compared to Iran, Meshaal is more willing and puts his trust in Qatar and Turkey. Although he was a guest of Syria for more than ten years, he stood in favor of the protesters after the internal crisis of that country started. A factor that caused Bashar Assad, Iran and Hezbollah to be upset.
Following his action, Syria blocked the Hamas office in its territory. From then on, Hamas became a guest of Qatar and also Tehran stopped financial aid to Hamas for two years.
Meshaal has also visited Tehran less than other Hamas leaders. The most important effective factor in distancing him from Iran and its allies was the Brotherhood gaining power in Egypt because at that time Hamas was more inclined towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
It was a few months before the end of Meshaal’s presidency that the Hamas constitution was amended
At that time, the government of Egypt opened the Rafah crossing and Meshaal entered Gaza with a long convoy of cars after 45 years. In the presence of many Palestinians, he also kissed the territory of Gaza while giving a speech.
Moreover, it was a few months before the end of Meshaal’s presidency that the Hamas constitution was amended. The new constitution, which was unveiled on May 1, 2017, does not mention the connection between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. While the previous constitution was modeled after the Brotherhood.
More importantly, Hamas pledged to accept the formation of a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 borders, something that confirms the two-state plan and Israel’s formalism. Both amended clauses are not in accordance with the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies.
Hamas, which is now in a state of war and has been weakened, is trying to choose someone as its leader who is the trusted side of Iran and the so-called resistance movement in the Middle East. If Meshaal becomes the leader of Hamas again, he may not be able to establish a warm relationship with Tehran and that movement and gain more support to the extent of Haniyeh. Therefore, maybe the preference of the majority of Hamas members is the face of Tehran’s trusted side.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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