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The return of ‘the political’ to world politics along Schmittian lines

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Translator’s Note: Daniel Hoffmann—the financier renowned for deciphering clandestine sovereign bond purchases within the Eurosystem, thereby unsettling the European Central Bank, and widely recognized for his mastery over the opaque corridors of global finance—interprets contemporary geopolitical fractures through the lens of Carl Schmitt’s “friend-enemy” dichotomy. Hoffmann posits that neoliberal globalization has reached its terminus. He asserts that the Trump administration, via the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (The Miran Plan), has explicitly militarized foreign trade to avert the collapse of the U.S. dollar and arrest the ascent of China. In this process, the Israel-Iran tension is framed as a strategic “trigger” designed to restructure the global financial system. According to the author, the U.S. effort to escape its staggering $10 trillion debt spiral by branding China an “existential foe” and coercing its allies in Europe and Asia under a security umbrella is driving the world toward a new and potentially explosive “state of exception.” Ultimately, Hoffmann emphasizes that symbolic maneuvers, such as the augmentation of defense budgets and the renaming of departments to the “Ministry of War,” constitute the rhetorical infrastructure of a hegemonic “war for survival.” This article, published in the March issue of Politik Spezial, has been translated from the original German at the author’s request; it is recommended to be read alongside the translator’s annotations.


The Return of “The Political” to World Politics along Schmittian Lines

The Iran War as a “Trigger” for the Execution of the Mar-a-Lago Accord

Daniel Hoffmann

Politik Spezial

March 2026

From Economic Competition to Economic Warfare

As early as the second Obama administration, there was a strategic shift toward the “Pivot to Asia” to counteract China’s rise. The “heated competition” between the U.S. and China that erupted then is now, under the second Trump administration, transforming into an overt political issue—specifically, a “political” matter in the precise sense intended by Carl Schmitt.[1] We are currently experiencing a profound “politicization.” With the Biden administration’s de facto declaration of Russia as an enemy, and the second Trump administration’s subsequent designation of China as such, we are witnessing the politicization and militarization of “world trade,” and consequently, the finality of “neoliberal globalism” in both ideological and practical terms.

In this context, the Iran-Israel war appears poised to serve as a trigger for the implementation of the Miran-Trump Plan, also known as the Mar-a-Lago Accord. The objective of this plan is twofold: to prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the U.S. dollar system and to forestall China’s emergence as a dominant economic and military power.

The “Concept of the Political,” the Identification of the Enemy, and the State of Exception in Carl Schmitt

According to Carl Schmitt’s famous maxim: “Sovereign is he who decides on the exception.”[2] A political entity (specifically the state) must possess the power to decide upon the “state of exception.” This decision-making authority is the very essence of the power to designate the enemy and preserve the community.

“The Political” arises when a group (e.g., a state, nation, or community) defines itself through—and in contrast to—an “enemy.” The enemy here is not a personal adversary, but rather a “public, existential foe” that threatens one’s own existence.[3] Enmity is not mere competition or debate; it is a conflict fraught with violence, possessing the potential to escalate into actual war. The friend-enemy grouping shapes political unity and establishes internal solidarity.

According to Schmitt’s 1932 work, The Concept of the Political, this “friend-enemy distinction” constitutes the specific criterion that categorically separates the political from other domains such as morality, economics, or aesthetics.

“The concepts of friend, enemy, and combat derive their real meaning precisely because they refer to and preserve a real possibility of physical killing. War follows from enmity, for enmity is the ontological negation of another existence.[4] War is only the most extreme manifestation of enmity.”

The “Twelve-Day War” and the Essential Casus Belli for Round Two

With the successive heavy strikes launched by Israel and the U.S. against Iran in June 2025 during the so-called “Twelve-Day War,” such an “ontological negation of another existence” evolved into an actual war that lay dormant until early 2026. But now—as anticipated—following Trump’s Venezuelan coup, the war is entering its second round, primarily as a result of official pressure from Israel.

The violent uprisings that erupted in Iran, incited by a U.S. hybrid financial warfare attack and networks of foreign agents, and their subsequent repressive suppression by Iranian security forces, provide the “morally justified casus belli” essential for Western public opinion—paralleling the precursors to wars in Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

The “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (Miran Plan) – The Bifurcation of the World into Friend and Foe

In November 2024, Prof. Stephen Miran presented an implementation guide for the restructuring of the global trade system, which has now assumed the status of a Handlungsmaxime (maxim for action) for Trump’s endeavor to “Make America Great Again.” By analyzing the U.S. twin deficits arising from the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency and the associated “Triffin Dilemma,” Miran identifies that a subsequent collapse of the U.S. industrial base would imperil not only national prosperity but existential national security.*

(Author’s Note: The Triffin Dilemma describes the fundamental conflict of objectives faced by a country whose currency serves as a global reserve. To fulfill this role, the currency must be available in vast quantities worldwide. However, this inevitably leads to current account and balance of payments deficits, which ultimately erode confidence in the currency’s sustainability.)

The mission of the plan in this context is: To make America great (and magnificent) again, while “keeping China small.” Accordingly, the following objectives have been declared:

  • The aversion of sovereign default and the assurance of war’s financial viability.
  • The elimination of the U.S. twin deficits through the “re-industrialization” of the United States.
  • The securing of military superiority over the rest of the world, particularly China, Russia, and Iran.

To achieve these goals, the following methods and narratives are envisioned:

  • The “militarization” of foreign trade through the distinction between friend and foe.
  • The narrative that America is being exploited by the rest of the world. The prosperity of others is possible only because Pax Americana permits it.
  • Friends must pay a price for Pax Americana in the future (the 5% “NATO target”); otherwise, they will lose their security umbrella.
  • Enemies will be kept “outside” through tariffs, sanctions, etc.
  • The aversion of U.S. sovereign default through “burden-sharing.”
  • Debt restructuring via 100-year bonds that are interest-free but can be used as collateral with the Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • The use of tariffs as a tool to balance “exchange rate misalignments” to compensate for trade imbalances.
  • The imposition of 100% punitive tariffs on countries exiting dollarization.

Regarding the consequences and issues arising from the Miran Plan, the text translated into German states:

“Firstly: A much sharper boundary will be drawn between friend, foe, and neutral trading partners. Friends are under the security and economic umbrella, but this involves a stronger burden-sharing. (…) Those outside the security umbrella will also find themselves outside friendly agreements aimed at international trade and easy access to the U.S. consumer. Higher costs will be imposed upon them through tariffs and other measures. This will have obvious effects on asset prices. Secondly: The very threat of withdrawing the security umbrella without burden-sharing will have potentially explosive consequences. (…)”

The new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) published in November 2025 already articulates these considerations quite clearly. The renaming of the U.S. Department of Defense to the U.S. Department of War completes the rest of the picture.

The $10 Trillion Debt Issue and the Initiation of the Next Phase of the Miran Plan – The Branding of China as an Enemy

Since 2024, the U.S. government has allocated more than $1 trillion to interest payments—a sum exceeding the budgets for security and the military. Furthermore, this occurs against a backdrop of sovereign debt exceeding 120% of GDP, far beyond the 90% sustainability threshold.

After Trump halted Elon Musk’s DOGE savings program, increased the war budget by 50% to approximately $1.5 trillion, and initiated active measures against Russia and China’s allies (including Venezuela and Iran), the U.S. will be forced to restructure more than $9 trillion of its approximately $30 trillion sovereign debt in 2026 and will seek an additional $1 trillion in borrowing.

Against this backdrop, the BRICS nations, led by Russia and China, are now accelerating their de-dollarization efforts. Consequently, it is clear that the time for the next phase of the Miran Plan has arrived—indeed, it is overdue.

To officially brand China an enemy and to unsettle U.S. friends in Europe and Asia enough to submit to the Miran Plan—specifically to the restructuring of U.S. sovereign debt—only a pretext is now required. With Trump’s so-called “Peace Board,” the core for a new “Coalition of the Willing” (Koalition der Willigen) has already been formed.

Trump’s provocation—verging on the resurrection—of an Iranian war (having already dispatched a third carrier strike group to the region) provides an ideal “trigger” for China to be forced to take an overt stand against the U.S. and Israel, lest it lose its next “independent oil supplier” and witness the “sabotage” of its New Silk Road and currency plans.

China—alongside Russia—has supported “U.S. enemy” Iran for years, and since the Twelve-Day War, has been intensively fortifying it with high-tech defense weaponry, rocket fuel, intelligence data, etc.; it is highly probable that Iran would effectively deploy this equipment against the U.S. war machine in a limited conflict.

The ensuing international tensions are likely to produce the expected effect. The increasingly aggressive rhetoric between Japan (Takaichi) and China, as well as between Russia and Germany (Merz) or the remaining NATO countries, already casts the shadows of the approaching storm before us.[5]

(About the Author: Daniel Hoffmann is a financier specializing in accounting, public finance, and monetary theory. He serves as a political consultant in economics, finance, monetary policy, and geopolitics, and is also affiliated with the Institute for Collective Economic Policy (IKW). In his 2015 thesis as a guest researcher, he revealed that certain national central banks within the Eurosystem had been secretly purchasing sovereign bonds on a massive scale for their own accounts under the Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA), which he personally exposed. This disclosure plunged then-ECB President Mario Draghi into a significant crisis of accountability, leading to the revelation of the previously classified agreement.)


[1] “The Political” (Das Politische): In German, everyday pragmatic politics is denoted by the word die Politik; however, Schmitt uses the neuter substantive (das Politische) to construct it as a “domain” or an ontological ground. It is the reduction of the Ancient Greek concept of Polis to an absolute field of existential distinction. Against the parliamentary “chatter” of the Weimar Republic, Schmitt grounds the essence of politics in the “decision” (Decisionism). (Trans. Note)

[2] “Sovereign is he who decides on the exception.”: Original: „Souverän ist, wer über den Ausnahmezustand entscheidet.“ Ausnahme (exception) and Zustand (state/condition). The uncanny void where rules and law are suspended. This is the opening sentence of Political Theology (1922). Schmitt states, “The exception is to jurisprudence what the miracle is to theology.” This concept, also heavily treated in Giorgio Agamben’s Homo Sacer, describes how the modern state establishes a monopoly on violence by suspending the law. (Trans. Note)

[3] “Public, existential foe”: Original: „öffentlicher, existenzieller Gegner“: Hoffmann draws a thick line here between private enmity and public enmity. In interpreting the biblical command (Matthew 5:44) “Love your enemies,” Schmitt argues that the Bible refers to the private enemy (Latin: inimicus, Greek: echthros) and not the public political enemy (Latin: hostis, Greek: polemios). One may not hate the political enemy, yet their existence must be negated. (Trans. Note)

[4] “The ontological negation of another existence”: Original: „seinsmäßige Negierung eines anderen Seins“: The word Sein (Being) is the jugular vein of German philosophy. It is an act of negating the presence of being, orbiting the Heideggerian concept of Dasein. Translating seinsmäßig as “ontological” rather than merely “existential” was essential to carry the heavy philosophical tone (Klang) of post-German Idealism into English. The life of one side is predicated upon the ontological rejection of the other. (Trans. Note)

[5] Current Political Context and “German-Russian” Rhetoric: Original: Rhetorik zwischen (…) Russland und Deutschland (Merz): The mention of “Merz” is not a random parenthetical. It signals that the conservative line occupying the Chancellorship in Germany has shed the relative caution of its predecessor to enter a “Schmittian” friend-enemy polarization within the U.S.-NATO axis, militarizing its rhetoric just as Hoffmann describes. (Trans. Note)

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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