Middle East
Expect retaliation within 24-48 hours: Israel prepares to strike on ‘multiple fronts’
Following the assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shoukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the US estimates that Iran could launch an attack on Israel within 24 to 48 hours from today. As Israel prepares for the attack, Biden will convene his national security team.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a phone call with G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel within 24 to 48 hours.
According to three people familiar with the call who spoke to the US news website Axios, Blinken said the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate. Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that it was unclear how Iran would retaliate, stating that they did not know the exact timing of the attacks but that they “could begin in the next 24 to 48 hours”.
Blinken noted that the US was seeking to limit Iranian and Hezbollah attacks as much as possible and then to limit Israel’s response in order to break the cycle of escalation.
Blinken urged the G7 foreign ministers to put diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to exercise restraint, and said the increase in the number of US forces in the region was defensive.
A source who attended the meeting said Blinken appeared “frustrated” as he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over Gaza prisoners and a ceasefire agreement.
US convenes national security team
It has been announced that US President Biden will also convene his national security team due to rising tensions and the threat of retaliation.
A White House statement said the meeting, which will be closed to the press, will take place in the ‘Situation Room’, which is convened in special circumstances. The statement said Biden would convene his national security team today to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following the assassinations of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukour and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, and Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel.
“The US wants to reduce tensions in the region”
Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer said the US was seeking to reduce tensions in the region through measures such as sending additional warplanes and ships to the Middle East.
“We are trying to prevent the conflict in Gaza from spilling over and spreading elsewhere. That is our strategic objective,” he said.
The US Department of Defence (Pentagon) has announced that it will send additional warplanes and ships to the region to increase its support for Israel’s security in the face of ‘threats from Iran’.
Israel expects casualties this time
Meanwhile, Israel is bracing for possible attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.
According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli security services are on “high alert” and members of the US-led international coalition, including Britain and allied Arab states, are on standby to prevent and deter possible Iranian attacks on “various fronts”.
The report, which did not cite sources, said the measures taken included allied aircraft and warships patrolling the region.
The report noted that Israeli leaders are discussing how the country will respond to such attacks, including the possibility of an all-out war.
The Ynet news website also reported that security meetings have been held to prepare for attacks. According to the report, ministers were asked to be ready for any scenario.
“MK-83 bombs approved” claim
On the other hand, it has been claimed that the US administration has approved the sending of half-ton MK-83 bombs to Israel for use in air strikes.
According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who visited the US in late July, asked Biden to send heavier bombs in case of an escalation of tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah on the northern border.
According to the news report, Biden allegedly decided to send MK-83 bombs, which weigh half a tonne and are used in fighter jets, while it is not yet known whether Washington has accepted the transfer of MK-84 bombs, which weigh one tonne.
The reportedly approved half-ton bombs are expected to be delivered to Israel along with some 1,700 250-kilogram MK-82 bombs, the delivery of which was stopped by the Biden administration after they were loaded onto the ship.
It was noted that the MK-82 bombs were stopped on Biden’s direct orders due to his dissatisfaction with Israel’s attacks on Rafah in southern Gaza.
While it is known that the US restricted arms shipments to Israel for a while after the 7 October attacks, but recently resumed them, the delivery of heavy weapons is causing public debate.
A senior Israeli official said that Israel and the US might find it difficult to stop an attack on several fronts and that the country should prepare for ‘a large number of casualties’. The official claimed that only such a scenario would pave the way for a stronger Israeli response and that the world would rally around Israel.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
-
Europe5 days agoEuropean unions urge governments to scrap all Palantir deals
-
Diplomacy5 days agoEast-West Forum in Istanbul highlights irreversible shift to multipolarity
-
Europe1 week agoEmmanuel Todd says West faces collapse amid Ukraine and Iran crises
-
Europe1 week agoEuropean intelligence chiefs divide over risk of Russian attack
-
Diplomacy1 week agoEast-West Forum in Istanbul to debate multipolarity and global order
-
Middle East1 week agoSharaa says 7 October must not shape Israel policy on Syria
-
America1 week agoRepublican support for Trump’s war with Iran drops sharply in polls
-
Middle East1 week agoPalestinian factions confront legitimacy crisis at Istanbul talks
