Middle East
Expect retaliation within 24-48 hours: Israel prepares to strike on ‘multiple fronts’
Following the assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shoukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the US estimates that Iran could launch an attack on Israel within 24 to 48 hours from today. As Israel prepares for the attack, Biden will convene his national security team.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a phone call with G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel within 24 to 48 hours.
According to three people familiar with the call who spoke to the US news website Axios, Blinken said the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate. Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that it was unclear how Iran would retaliate, stating that they did not know the exact timing of the attacks but that they “could begin in the next 24 to 48 hours”.
Blinken noted that the US was seeking to limit Iranian and Hezbollah attacks as much as possible and then to limit Israel’s response in order to break the cycle of escalation.
Blinken urged the G7 foreign ministers to put diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to exercise restraint, and said the increase in the number of US forces in the region was defensive.
A source who attended the meeting said Blinken appeared “frustrated” as he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over Gaza prisoners and a ceasefire agreement.
US convenes national security team
It has been announced that US President Biden will also convene his national security team due to rising tensions and the threat of retaliation.
A White House statement said the meeting, which will be closed to the press, will take place in the ‘Situation Room’, which is convened in special circumstances. The statement said Biden would convene his national security team today to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following the assassinations of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukour and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, and Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel.
“The US wants to reduce tensions in the region”
Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer said the US was seeking to reduce tensions in the region through measures such as sending additional warplanes and ships to the Middle East.
“We are trying to prevent the conflict in Gaza from spilling over and spreading elsewhere. That is our strategic objective,” he said.
The US Department of Defence (Pentagon) has announced that it will send additional warplanes and ships to the region to increase its support for Israel’s security in the face of ‘threats from Iran’.
Israel expects casualties this time
Meanwhile, Israel is bracing for possible attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.
According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli security services are on “high alert” and members of the US-led international coalition, including Britain and allied Arab states, are on standby to prevent and deter possible Iranian attacks on “various fronts”.
The report, which did not cite sources, said the measures taken included allied aircraft and warships patrolling the region.
The report noted that Israeli leaders are discussing how the country will respond to such attacks, including the possibility of an all-out war.
The Ynet news website also reported that security meetings have been held to prepare for attacks. According to the report, ministers were asked to be ready for any scenario.
“MK-83 bombs approved” claim
On the other hand, it has been claimed that the US administration has approved the sending of half-ton MK-83 bombs to Israel for use in air strikes.
According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who visited the US in late July, asked Biden to send heavier bombs in case of an escalation of tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah on the northern border.
According to the news report, Biden allegedly decided to send MK-83 bombs, which weigh half a tonne and are used in fighter jets, while it is not yet known whether Washington has accepted the transfer of MK-84 bombs, which weigh one tonne.
The reportedly approved half-ton bombs are expected to be delivered to Israel along with some 1,700 250-kilogram MK-82 bombs, the delivery of which was stopped by the Biden administration after they were loaded onto the ship.
It was noted that the MK-82 bombs were stopped on Biden’s direct orders due to his dissatisfaction with Israel’s attacks on Rafah in southern Gaza.
While it is known that the US restricted arms shipments to Israel for a while after the 7 October attacks, but recently resumed them, the delivery of heavy weapons is causing public debate.
A senior Israeli official said that Israel and the US might find it difficult to stop an attack on several fronts and that the country should prepare for ‘a large number of casualties’. The official claimed that only such a scenario would pave the way for a stronger Israeli response and that the world would rally around Israel.
Middle East
France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz
France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.
“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.
Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.
According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.
Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.
Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.
In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.
More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.
TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.
Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”
Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.
Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”
Middle East
Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school
Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.
The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.
This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.
According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”
Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.
A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”
The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.
School and military facility were located within the same compound
The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.
Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.
In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.
The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.
Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.
Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.
Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error
At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.
Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.
An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.
Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.
However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.
Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.
Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.
Middle East
US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.
According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.
The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.
In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”
Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.
The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.
Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.
According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.
The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.
The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.
On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.
Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.
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