Middle East
Israel expects Hezbollah to strike first
Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah will strike first against Israel in the coming days, denying media reports that Iran is recalibrating the dosage of its potential response to Israel.
CNN, citing two intelligence sources familiar with the situation, reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly prepared to act against Israel ‘regardless’ of Iran’s expected response to the assassinations of its top military commander, Fouad Shokur, in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
One source said Hezbollah was moving faster than Iran in preparing for an attack in the coming days. According to CNN, several officials said Iran was continuing to prepare its retaliation plans, while a US military official said Tehran had already made some, if not all, of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.
The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning because of Lebanon’s border with Israel. The source added that it was unclear how or whether Iran and Hezbollah were cooperating on a possible attack, and that some officials believed they might disagree on how to proceed.
Iran expects ‘measured response’
On the other hand, according to Politico’s behind-the-scenes report, Iran is reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel after the Biden administration pressured Tehran to rethink its retaliation plans.
According to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct conflict between the two countries. Politico quoted officials as saying that they believed Iran would still respond, but that it would be more measured and might not be immediate.
Alleged ‘Israeli ceasefire bribe’
The Qatar-based al-Arabi al-Jadid newspaper reported that Israel has proposed a new ceasefire and hostage swap deal that would also end the war in Gaza in order to avoid Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation.
According to the report, Western and Arab officials close to both Israel and Iran have been circulating the text of the draft agreement for the past four days. The deal is said to include a ceasefire in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to establish ‘sustainable calm’, as well as a prisoner exchange and a framework for the reconstruction of the region.
The report also noted progress in US and Western efforts to defuse tensions following the assassinations of Shoukry and Haniyeh.
Pimping claim
A report by the London-based Iran International claimed that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‘begged’ the country’s supreme leader to refrain from a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel destroying Iran’s infrastructure and energy targets and crippling its economy.
The report, based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, claimed that Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even lead to Iran’s collapse.
The report said Khamenei made no commitments during the meeting.
‘One of our priorities is to punish the aggressor’
Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), Saeed Iravani, spoke to Al Jazeera about claims that Iran would abandon its intention to attack Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s occupation of the country.
“Our priority is to ensure the permanent cessation of attacks and the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Gaza. Our priority is also to punish those involved in the assassination of Shahid Haniyeh. Our other priority is to prevent the repetition of terrorist attacks by the Israeli regime.
‘Israel will receive a timely and appropriate response’
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting yesterday that Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.
Speaking at the OIC meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Israel’s aggression against the Palestinian people and its violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Baqeri pointed out that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed in its responsibility to stop Israel’s aggression in the region.
“Due to the Security Council’s failure to take appropriate action against the Israeli regime’s aggression and violations, Iran has no choice but to exercise its right to self-defence against this regime’s aggression. This action is necessary to prevent this regime from further attacks on Iran’s sovereignty, citizens and territory, and will be carried out at the necessary time and in an appropriate manner”.
Bakri said that the assassination of Haniyeh was possible with US approval and intelligence support to Israel, and that Washington’s responsibility in this assassination should not be ignored.
OIC support for Iran
The final statement issued by the OIC strongly condemned the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and held Israel fully responsible for the act.
“This is a dangerous attack on Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security,” the statement said, adding that the assassination was a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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