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Israel expects Hezbollah to strike first

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Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah will strike first against Israel in the coming days, denying media reports that Iran is recalibrating the dosage of its potential response to Israel.

CNN, citing two intelligence sources familiar with the situation, reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly prepared to act against Israel ‘regardless’ of Iran’s expected response to the assassinations of its top military commander, Fouad Shokur, in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

One source said Hezbollah was moving faster than Iran in preparing for an attack in the coming days. According to CNN, several officials said Iran was continuing to prepare its retaliation plans, while a US military official said Tehran had already made some, if not all, of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.

The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning because of Lebanon’s border with Israel. The source added that it was unclear how or whether Iran and Hezbollah were cooperating on a possible attack, and that some officials believed they might disagree on how to proceed.

Iran expects ‘measured response’

On the other hand, according to Politico’s behind-the-scenes report, Iran is reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel after the Biden administration pressured Tehran to rethink its retaliation plans.

According to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct conflict between the two countries. Politico quoted officials as saying that they believed Iran would still respond, but that it would be more measured and might not be immediate.

Alleged ‘Israeli ceasefire bribe’

The Qatar-based al-Arabi al-Jadid newspaper reported that Israel has proposed a new ceasefire and hostage swap deal that would also end the war in Gaza in order to avoid Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation.

According to the report, Western and Arab officials close to both Israel and Iran have been circulating the text of the draft agreement for the past four days. The deal is said to include a ceasefire in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to establish ‘sustainable calm’, as well as a prisoner exchange and a framework for the reconstruction of the region.

The report also noted progress in US and Western efforts to defuse tensions following the assassinations of Shoukry and Haniyeh.

Pimping claim

A report by the London-based Iran International claimed that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‘begged’ the country’s supreme leader to refrain from a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel destroying Iran’s infrastructure and energy targets and crippling its economy.

The report, based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, claimed that Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even lead to Iran’s collapse.

The report said Khamenei made no commitments during the meeting.

‘One of our priorities is to punish the aggressor’

Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), Saeed Iravani, spoke to Al Jazeera about claims that Iran would abandon its intention to attack Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s occupation of the country.

“Our priority is to ensure the permanent cessation of attacks and the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Gaza. Our priority is also to punish those involved in the assassination of Shahid Haniyeh. Our other priority is to prevent the repetition of terrorist attacks by the Israeli regime.

‘Israel will receive a timely and appropriate response’

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting yesterday that Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.

Speaking at the OIC meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Israel’s aggression against the Palestinian people and its violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Baqeri pointed out that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed in its responsibility to stop Israel’s aggression in the region.

“Due to the Security Council’s failure to take appropriate action against the Israeli regime’s aggression and violations, Iran has no choice but to exercise its right to self-defence against this regime’s aggression. This action is necessary to prevent this regime from further attacks on Iran’s sovereignty, citizens and territory, and will be carried out at the necessary time and in an appropriate manner”.

Bakri said that the assassination of Haniyeh was possible with US approval and intelligence support to Israel, and that Washington’s responsibility in this assassination should not be ignored.

OIC support for Iran

The final statement issued by the OIC strongly condemned the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and held Israel fully responsible for the act.

“This is a dangerous attack on Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security,” the statement said, adding that the assassination was a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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