Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah will strike first against Israel in the coming days, denying media reports that Iran is recalibrating the dosage of its potential response to Israel.
CNN, citing two intelligence sources familiar with the situation, reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly prepared to act against Israel ‘regardless’ of Iran’s expected response to the assassinations of its top military commander, Fouad Shokur, in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
One source said Hezbollah was moving faster than Iran in preparing for an attack in the coming days. According to CNN, several officials said Iran was continuing to prepare its retaliation plans, while a US military official said Tehran had already made some, if not all, of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.
The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning because of Lebanon’s border with Israel. The source added that it was unclear how or whether Iran and Hezbollah were cooperating on a possible attack, and that some officials believed they might disagree on how to proceed.
Iran expects ‘measured response’
On the other hand, according to Politico’s behind-the-scenes report, Iran is reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel after the Biden administration pressured Tehran to rethink its retaliation plans.
According to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct conflict between the two countries. Politico quoted officials as saying that they believed Iran would still respond, but that it would be more measured and might not be immediate.
Alleged ‘Israeli ceasefire bribe’
The Qatar-based al-Arabi al-Jadid newspaper reported that Israel has proposed a new ceasefire and hostage swap deal that would also end the war in Gaza in order to avoid Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation.
According to the report, Western and Arab officials close to both Israel and Iran have been circulating the text of the draft agreement for the past four days. The deal is said to include a ceasefire in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to establish ‘sustainable calm’, as well as a prisoner exchange and a framework for the reconstruction of the region.
The report also noted progress in US and Western efforts to defuse tensions following the assassinations of Shoukry and Haniyeh.
Pimping claim
A report by the London-based Iran International claimed that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‘begged’ the country’s supreme leader to refrain from a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel destroying Iran’s infrastructure and energy targets and crippling its economy.
The report, based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, claimed that Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even lead to Iran’s collapse.
The report said Khamenei made no commitments during the meeting.
‘One of our priorities is to punish the aggressor’
Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), Saeed Iravani, spoke to Al Jazeera about claims that Iran would abandon its intention to attack Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s occupation of the country.
“Our priority is to ensure the permanent cessation of attacks and the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Gaza. Our priority is also to punish those involved in the assassination of Shahid Haniyeh. Our other priority is to prevent the repetition of terrorist attacks by the Israeli regime.
‘Israel will receive a timely and appropriate response’
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting yesterday that Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.
Speaking at the OIC meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Israel’s aggression against the Palestinian people and its violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Baqeri pointed out that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed in its responsibility to stop Israel’s aggression in the region.
“Due to the Security Council’s failure to take appropriate action against the Israeli regime’s aggression and violations, Iran has no choice but to exercise its right to self-defence against this regime’s aggression. This action is necessary to prevent this regime from further attacks on Iran’s sovereignty, citizens and territory, and will be carried out at the necessary time and in an appropriate manner”.
Bakri said that the assassination of Haniyeh was possible with US approval and intelligence support to Israel, and that Washington’s responsibility in this assassination should not be ignored.
OIC support for Iran
The final statement issued by the OIC strongly condemned the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and held Israel fully responsible for the act.
“This is a dangerous attack on Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security,” the statement said, adding that the assassination was a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.
