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Israel expects Hezbollah to strike first

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Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah will strike first against Israel in the coming days, denying media reports that Iran is recalibrating the dosage of its potential response to Israel.

CNN, citing two intelligence sources familiar with the situation, reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly prepared to act against Israel ‘regardless’ of Iran’s expected response to the assassinations of its top military commander, Fouad Shokur, in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

One source said Hezbollah was moving faster than Iran in preparing for an attack in the coming days. According to CNN, several officials said Iran was continuing to prepare its retaliation plans, while a US military official said Tehran had already made some, if not all, of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.

The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning because of Lebanon’s border with Israel. The source added that it was unclear how or whether Iran and Hezbollah were cooperating on a possible attack, and that some officials believed they might disagree on how to proceed.

Iran expects ‘measured response’

On the other hand, according to Politico’s behind-the-scenes report, Iran is reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel after the Biden administration pressured Tehran to rethink its retaliation plans.

According to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct conflict between the two countries. Politico quoted officials as saying that they believed Iran would still respond, but that it would be more measured and might not be immediate.

Alleged ‘Israeli ceasefire bribe’

The Qatar-based al-Arabi al-Jadid newspaper reported that Israel has proposed a new ceasefire and hostage swap deal that would also end the war in Gaza in order to avoid Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation.

According to the report, Western and Arab officials close to both Israel and Iran have been circulating the text of the draft agreement for the past four days. The deal is said to include a ceasefire in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to establish ‘sustainable calm’, as well as a prisoner exchange and a framework for the reconstruction of the region.

The report also noted progress in US and Western efforts to defuse tensions following the assassinations of Shoukry and Haniyeh.

Pimping claim

A report by the London-based Iran International claimed that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‘begged’ the country’s supreme leader to refrain from a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel destroying Iran’s infrastructure and energy targets and crippling its economy.

The report, based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, claimed that Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even lead to Iran’s collapse.

The report said Khamenei made no commitments during the meeting.

‘One of our priorities is to punish the aggressor’

Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), Saeed Iravani, spoke to Al Jazeera about claims that Iran would abandon its intention to attack Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s occupation of the country.

“Our priority is to ensure the permanent cessation of attacks and the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Gaza. Our priority is also to punish those involved in the assassination of Shahid Haniyeh. Our other priority is to prevent the repetition of terrorist attacks by the Israeli regime.

‘Israel will receive a timely and appropriate response’

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting yesterday that Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.

Speaking at the OIC meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Israel’s aggression against the Palestinian people and its violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Baqeri pointed out that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed in its responsibility to stop Israel’s aggression in the region.

“Due to the Security Council’s failure to take appropriate action against the Israeli regime’s aggression and violations, Iran has no choice but to exercise its right to self-defence against this regime’s aggression. This action is necessary to prevent this regime from further attacks on Iran’s sovereignty, citizens and territory, and will be carried out at the necessary time and in an appropriate manner”.

Bakri said that the assassination of Haniyeh was possible with US approval and intelligence support to Israel, and that Washington’s responsibility in this assassination should not be ignored.

OIC support for Iran

The final statement issued by the OIC strongly condemned the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and held Israel fully responsible for the act.

“This is a dangerous attack on Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security,” the statement said, adding that the assassination was a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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