2024 is about to become history, and the year will certainly stand out as a period marked by turmoil, thrilling events, and unexpected developments—a year of upheaval fitting the natural attributes of the Chinese zodiac’s Year of the Dragon. In Chinese culture, the dragon, one of the 12 zodiac signs, symbolizes the emperor, a harbinger of good fortune, and a super beast full of vitality that can stir the seas and skies. In Western culture, however, the dragon represents ominous forces, possessing great power but also destructive and potentially devastating tendencies. Reflecting the nature of the Year of the Dragon, 2024 has witnessed a series of political maneuvers and conflicts across the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Asia, casting a bloody and shadowy tone over the world, foreshadowing more unrest and uncertainty in the coming year.
Trump’s Triumphant Return Sparks Global Anxiety
The biggest surprise and risk of 2024 was the U.S. presidential election and the unexpected, forceful comeback of former President Donald Trump. The Democratic Party, which had governed for just four years, replaced President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris in the race, but this did little to hinder Trump and the Republican Party’s overwhelming momentum. After surviving an assassination attempt, Trump stunned the world by reclaiming the White House with a decisive victory. The Republican Party also achieved a rare feat, gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as the Supreme Court.
Having already experienced the “fierce” leadership style of Trump, the world now faces an even more assertive and confident “Trump 2.0,” with the U.S. consolidating power under one party, increasingly shaped by Trump’s influence. Trump’s return to office is expected to lead to the U.S. withdrawing from international multilateral organizations and treaties, such as the WHO, the Paris Climate Agreement, and UNESCO, disrupting the global governance system. Trump’s “America First” and “America Above All” policies will likely result in steep tariffs on trade partners and pressure on security allies to significantly increase their military spending. Trump may also undermine U.S. post-WWII transatlantic and transpacific alliances, potentially damaging the so-called “Pax Americana.” Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st state, the necessity of owning Greenland from Denmark, and regaining control of the Panama Canal have left these nations feeling uneasy and tense.
Russia-Ukraine War Tilts in Favor of Russia
After nearly three years, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly favoring Russia. As the conflict extends into its third year, Russia has transitioned from a strategic defensive position to an all-out offensive, consolidating control in the south and expanding its dominance in the Donbas region, forcing the Ukrainian army into retreat. Russia continues to target Ukraine’s infrastructure, aiming to demoralize both the Ukrainian military and civilian population. Despite ongoing aid from the U.S. and Europe, Ukraine suffers heavy losses, particularly in manpower, making it difficult to sustain prolonged warfare.
With Trump set to return to office and his opposition to prolonging the war, the U.S. policy of supporting Ukraine’s war of attrition is losing ground. Ukraine’s government is now faced with the possibility of losing U.S. support, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior officials to openly acknowledge their inability to reclaim lost territories. There is increasing openness to peace talks, even if it means ceding land. More Western leaders are beginning to believe that the war could reach a ceasefire by 2025.
Political Crises in Germany and France Challenge European Unity
One of the year’s surprises was the domestic crises in Germany and France, the two engines of the European Union. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party led to internal conflict, resulting in a successful no-confidence vote in the Bundestag. This forced Germany to call early parliamentary elections in February 2025. The root of Germany’s political crisis lies in economic and social issues, including Scholz’s proactive involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, increased defense spending, and value-driven diplomacy aligned with the U.S. The inability to manage immigration, revive the manufacturing sector, and improve social welfare has led to declining public support. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining momentum and may play a role in forming the next government.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold early elections in mid-2024 resulted in a surge in far-right popularity, leading to a fragmented parliament and political instability. By December 4, Prime Minister Michel Bayeni, who had been in office for just three months, was ousted by parliament. Ten days later, François Bayrou took over as prime minister, becoming Macron’s sixth prime minister and the fourth within a year. However, Bayrou’s tenure remains uncertain, with approval ratings plummeting to a historic low of 34%.
After Brexit, the EU’s traditional “trio” slimmed down to the “Franco-German duo,” but with political instability and frequent government changes in both countries, European integration and cohesion are severely impacted. This weakens the influence of these cornerstone nations on international affairs. If far-right forces enter ruling coalitions, it will undoubtedly challenge traditional policies in Germany and France, potentially leading to the “fragmentation” of the EU and even a historic regression in the unification process.
The Middle East war was unprecedentedly brutal, leaving multiple losers and one winner
The “Sixth Middle East War” was triggered by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which rapidly spread vertically across the Eastern Mediterranean and horizontally to the Persian Gulf. This created an “eight-front” war, with Israel leading the U.S. in one camp and Iran and Syria aligning with militia forces from Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq in the opposing camp. The war, marked by brutal sieges in Gaza and intense airstrikes in Lebanon, unexpectedly reignited Syria’s civil war, which had been dormant for four years. Even more unexpectedly, this led to the swift collapse of the Syrian regime without major battles.
This hybrid war, interwoven with conventional warfare, guerrilla tactics, shadow wars, proxy conflicts, and high-tech operations, brought shame to modern civilization. Turkey emerged as the sole winner, exploiting the chaos to help topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, all other parties, including Israel and Palestine, ended up as losers. The biggest strategic failures were suffered by Russia and Iran, both of which had deeply influenced Syria. Russia lost its status as a major global player in the Middle East, while Iran’s painstakingly cultivated “Axis of Resistance” and “Shia Crescent” were severely damaged.
Apart from Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria—whose territorial losses to Israel provided some legitimacy to their military actions—other parties engaged in the conflict under the guise of self-defense or Palestinian liberation, pursuing their own interests. This war, the largest in the Middle East since the Cold War, resembled a “Spring and Autumn Unjust War,” driven by ulterior motives.
Former Colonies Assert Independence, France’s Military Fully Withdraws from Africa
On December 20, France began withdrawing troops from Chad, a Central African nation. Although the withdrawal involved only 120 personnel, it marked a historic step in reducing France’s political and military influence in Africa, as Chad was France’s last military outpost on the continent. New governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—where coups had occurred—had previously expelled French troops, welcoming new allies such as Russia and the U.S.
France, a former colonial ruler of many African nations, had maintained a military presence even after these countries gained independence. This was often justified by counterterrorism efforts and the protection of French interests. France’s intermittent military interventions in Chad had lasted nearly 64 years, peaking at 1,000 troops. Since 2014, France’s counterterrorism operation “Barkhane” in the Sahel region once deployed 5,100 troops. However, as France’s overall power declined and President Macron sought to scale back overseas deployments, African nations’ growing sense of autonomy forced France to gradually retreat.
Failed Coup in South Korea: “Blue House Curse” Strikes Again
East Asia also saw turmoil in 2024. Initially, North Korea’s relations with the South deteriorated rapidly after drones infiltrated Pyongyang. This led to the renewal of a mutual defense alliance between North Korea and Russia, with reports of North Korean troops being sent to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, creating dual hotspots in East and West.
As global attention focused on the evolving North Korea-Russia relationship, South Korea experienced political upheaval overnight. Plagued by a political crisis, President Yoon Suk-yeol, swayed by advisers practicing fortune-telling, unconstitutionally declared martial law, triggering South Korea’s most severe constitutional crisis since the “June Struggle” of 1987.
Amid global scrutiny, opposition lawmakers broke through martial law lines and entered parliament, overturning Yoon’s decree with a two-thirds majority. This forced Yoon to retract his declaration and publicly apologize. Despite avoiding bloodshed, Yoon fell victim to the so-called “Blue House Curse,” becoming the second sitting president to face impeachment. Although the failed coup highlighted South Korea’s mature democratic processes, it exposed severe partisan strife, paralyzing the nation’s political system.
BRICS and SCO Expand, Global South Continues to Rise
On December 23, Russia, host of the 2024 BRICS Summit, announced that starting January 1, 2025, Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan would officially join BRICS as partner countries. This marks another major expansion following last year’s historic enlargement, incorporating nations from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. Additionally, 24 other nations remain on the waiting list for membership.
Coincidentally, at the June 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, Belarus’ membership was approved, bringing the total number of full members to 10, alongside two observer states and 14 dialogue partners.
BRICS and the SCO, both initiated by emerging and developing countries, continue to thrive and expand, underscoring the decline of the Western G7 bloc. This reflects the redistribution of political, economic, and trade power, highlighting the shifting balance from West to East and North to South. The Global South’s increasing cooperation and collective pursuit of peace and development symbolize a new vision, offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise turbulent 2024.
Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.
