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MIDDLE EAST

As ceasefire diplomacy accelerates in Lebanon, occupation expansion authorized

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump recently urged the Biden administration to pursue a ceasefire on the Lebanese front before his departure from office. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent his top advisor to the United States for negotiations, while the Chief of Staff approved a plan to expand Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon as leverage in potential negotiations. In response, Hezbollah has asserted that it possesses sufficient weapons, equipment, and resources for a prolonged conflict.

Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer traveled to the U.S. to engage in ceasefire discussions with Hezbollah representatives. Reports indicate that President-elect Trump conveyed a message to the Joe Biden administration underscoring the need for progress toward a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

According to Israeli media, Ron Dermer, a close ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Minister of Strategic Affairs, recently made a secret visit to Russia as part of efforts to broker peace with Hezbollah. His office, playing a key role in ceasefire negotiations, did not comment on the details of the Russian visit.

Additionally, Axios reported that Dermer will meet with Trump in the U.S. to continue discussions around achieving a ceasefire.

Netanyahu stated in a video message following a cabinet meeting that he had held three important meetings with U.S. President-elect Trump in recent days.

A report by Yedioth Ahronot, citing unnamed U.S. officials, noted that Trump had conveyed a message to the Biden administration about the urgency of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Senior U.S. adviser Amos Hochstein expressed confidence that the two sides could reach an agreement to end over a year of hostilities and Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the Israeli president’s office confirmed that President Isaac Herzog would meet with Biden at the White House on Tuesday.

Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afifi announced that Hezbollah is well-prepared with ample weapons, equipment, and materials for a long-term conflict on all fronts.

During a press conference marking Martyrs’ Day at the Sayyid al-Shuhada complex in Beirut’s Dahieh area, a Hezbollah stronghold, Afifi criticized Israel’s tactics. He stated, “You will never win your war with air superiority or by killing civilians, women, and children. Without effective ground control, you will not achieve your political goals, and the people of the north will never return.” Afifi further addressed Israeli claims that only 20% of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal remains, emphasizing that they were actively targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, and parts of the Golan Heights.

“We have enough weapons, equipment, and materials for a prolonged conflict,” Afifi reiterated, adding that Hezbollah maintains a strong relationship with the Lebanese army, despite ongoing efforts to divide them.

Since October 8, the Israeli army has been engaged in controlled skirmishes with Hezbollah, intensifying its attacks on Lebanon’s southern cities and on the Bekaa, Baalbek, and southern Beirut regions. Israel’s objective appears to be pushing Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that 3,189 people have been killed, including 194 children and 621 women, with 14,778 wounded since the outbreak of violence on October 8.

MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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MIDDLE EAST

Sexual harassment investigation targeting ICC Chief amid controversial prosecution

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has enlisted independent investigators to examine allegations of sexual harassment against Prosecutor Karim Khan.

The accusations against Khan surfaced as the ICC evaluated Khan’s request to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Finnish diplomat Päivi Kaukoranta, who leads the ICC’s oversight body, stated that an external investigation was initiated after reports surfaced that Khan had acted inappropriately toward a female colleague. Normally, such matters are managed by the court’s internal audit, but Khan personally requested that the Independent Supervisory Mechanism (ISM) oversee the case. Kaukoranta explained, “In light of the case’s unique circumstances, the ISM’s victim-centered approach, and the potential for conflicts of interest, the ISM agreed to the exceptional use of an external investigation.”

Khan denied the allegations, stating, “I have previously called for an investigation into this matter and welcome the opportunity to participate in this process.”

The investigation coincides with the ICC’s deliberation over Khan’s request to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

While Khan’s move was supported internationally, it drew criticism from the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that sanctions individuals affiliated with the ICC, including judges and their families, underscoring the U.S. policy of opposition to ICC jurisdiction over Israel.

Reports have also surfaced regarding Israel’s alleged threats toward ICC officials. In May, The Guardian revealed that Khan’s predecessor, Fatou Bensouda, was pressured in “a series of secret meetings” with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, a close ally of Netanyahu. Cohen reportedly advised Bensouda to “drop the war crimes investigation,” allegedly warning her, “You don’t want to be involved in anything that could endanger your safety or your family’s safety.”

Khan has since noted he faced pressure before submitting his application for the arrest warrant.

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MIDDLE EAST

Trump will conditionally support West Bank annexation

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Former Trump aides have cautioned Israeli ministers not to assume Trump’s unconditional support for West Bank annexation in a potential second term, according to The Times of Israel.

At least two officials from Donald Trump’s previous administration advised Israeli ministers to temper expectations about Trump’s support for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Sources close to the discussions indicated that while annexation is not off the table, Israeli leaders should avoid viewing it as a “foregone conclusion.”

The message was delivered in meetings and discussions held in the months leading up to Trump’s recent presidential victory. However, some far-right cabinet members remained undeterred. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would mark “the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]” following Trump’s re-election. Last week, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also asserted that “the time for sovereignty has come.”

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. Leiter, a former settler leader, is known for his support of West Bank annexation and opposition to a Palestinian state.

In a statement to The Times of Israel, an anonymous Israeli official said Trump’s former advisers have not ruled out his potential support for annexation. However, they indicated it could jeopardize Trump’s broader foreign policy priorities, including countering Iran, competing with China, and ending the war in Ukraine. Trump would likely need the support of key Gulf allies—notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—to achieve these goals. Unconditional support for Israeli annexation, however, could risk backlash from these regional allies.

In 2020, Trump’s peace plan proposed annexing all Israeli settlements while leaving open the possibility of a Palestinian state in other areas of the West Bank. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu had hesitations, settler leaders and officials like Smotrich celebrated Trump’s recent victory as a chance to realize annexation plans.

A former Trump adviser told an Israeli minister that Trump’s support for Israeli sovereignty would likely come with more conditions than in 2020. After the Palestinian Authority rejected Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” proposal in 2020, the Trump administration and Israel began planning a partial annexation of the West Bank. However, this initiative was set aside when the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The U.S. commitment to the UAE to delay Israeli annexation efforts expires at the end of 2024. Still, a former Trump official told The Times of Israel that a major shift in U.S. support for annexation should not be expected. “If any shift happens, it would need to be part of a process,” the official commented.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, reinforced this message, stating:

“I think it’s important that those in Israel who are celebrating President Trump’s victory do so because of his strong support for Israel, as evidenced by many historic achievements during his first term. Some Israeli ministers are assuming that expanding Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is an automatic done deal and will happen as soon as President Trump takes office.

I suggest they take a deep breath. If I were advising these ministers, I would strongly urge them to focus on working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations and address the significant threats facing Israel. The time for discussions around Judea and Samaria will come, but context and timing are crucial.”

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