China has successfully hosted the first China-Central Asia Summit. Before the summit, the cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries were always under the structural frame of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with Russia also being a part of SCO. This time without Russia taking part, China has achieved a new level of involvement in the region, making it a giant leap forward for China. But there are still many challenges and the regional cooperation model is hard to implement in the other parts of the world.
Security: Russia is Still the Key
The political security of the region is a sensitive issue for every country involved. The US tried to maintain its military and intelligence network close to Russia’s soft belly and China’s Xinjiang Province to incite separatism and terrorism activities in the area. Any governments in the region that tries to counter act faced the risks of themselves becoming the targets of ‘color revolutions’. On the other hand, Russia tried to maintain its own order of the region.
Now, for the first time China is emphasizing its own political security agenda on a regional level. For example, China has had a long working history with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It closely worked with the Southeastern Asian countries in anti-drug operations and fought against financial transnational crimes. Throughout this working relationship China has been ambiguous about its politics. The leaders of CCP were certainly concerned about the infiltration of this region by the US. Chinese officials used to discussed with their counterparts from Vietnam about the ‘color revolution’ but this was seldom made public. Interestingly, the joint declaration by China and Vietnam issued in last November mentioned ‘preventing peaceful evolution and color revolution’. This is an indication of a stronger political position herald, which were somewhat confirmed during the China-Central Asia summit.
However, if an emergency like the 2022 Kazakhstan riot were to happen again, only Russia would be capable of sending troops on behalf of CSTO to the riot location. SCO held joint exercises to crush terrorists, separatists and extremists. In fact, the very same skills could be helpful in the crackdown of the armed insurgents. Nevertheless, China has little experience in long-range military deployment. Although Y-20 transports enables PLA to do so, but the precious rapid response forces are reserved for the reunification with Taiwan island. And the key factor is Russia’s ambition to keep Central Asia within its own sphere of influence.
Mutual Trust and a New Model of Major Power Relationship
Some Russians are definitely still worrying under the table. But there are just no other choices other than trusting the Chinese. Russia has always been vigilant about China’s development from Far East to Central Asia.
There were many ‘reasons’ for the Russians to worry. Some Russian elites believed that China was the central kingdom that would expand like an imperialistic empire. Or China had such a large population that it had to colonize other areas such as Russia’s Siberia. Or China didn’t have high-tech and Russia could gain nothing from the cunning merchants. Or China would collapse soon like the USSR… Well, some Russia elites actually shared their misunderstandings on China with the West.
Fortunately and especially for Russia, China proved itself a genuine, or rather a useful companion. The failure of Russia’s economic transition presented a sharp contrast against the eastern industrialized power. Mutual trust comes from mutual need. Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine sped up the process.
In Central Asia, Russians have realized even before the conflict that by themselves alone, they could not revitalize the economy in the region. Hence, the Eurasian Economic Union found were already cooperating with the One Belt One Road projects.
One of the two mutual-trusting powers dominates the security of the area while the other one pushes forward economic and infrastructure projects. This could be an ideal arrangement of the ‘New Model of Major Power Relationship’ in a region with other countries.
Challenges Ahead
The observers should not indulge in the romance and the game between Russia and China. The needs of the people in the region should be treated as priority. However, if one has high expectations of some dramatic changes over a short time, he might be disappointed.
The 26 billion-yuan support is a large sum of money but it can only fund a few of the many key projects. It will not thoroughly change the poor connectivity of Central Asia to the rest of the world nor will this money enhance the area’s industrialization capabilities overnight. Better infrastructure will bring convenience for everyone but the economic benefit sometimes will not manifest immediately.
Therefore, even if Central Asia enjoys a high growth rate over the next decade, the region will not become a breath-taking model for the world. Southeastern Asia will be more active and attractive as developing countries and the dramatic reform of the rich Saudis will be more eye-catching.
Political stability is a prerequisite for development. But the mutual-trusting geopolitical pattern of the Central Asian countries, Russia and China cannot be replicated elsewhere. Walking a tightrope between the distrusting powers is usually the prevailing trend.
Many people are looking for solutions of governance and development for their own regions. But on a global scale, the progress in Central Asia might only be small and will most likely to be regarded by the outside world as a negligible anecdote.
Last but not least, there is the dilemma in the cultural communication. The minorities living in the bordering areas of China share similar cultures with the Central Asian countries and could have closer cultural ties to those countries. If cultural communication goes too rapid, there could be loopholes for separatists aided by the US and can also ring alarm bells upsetting some Russians.
Historic Conclusion
From a historic stand point, the expansion of China’s influence into Central Asia is just a natural process of the nation reinvigorating its power aided by new technologies.
But the new technologies have their own limitations. The advanced railways enhance connectivity and China’s projecting ability, but they are also costly to build and maintain.
China can stretch much further now than during its Han and Tang dynasty. The question is: does it need to bear such a burden or take such great risks to clash with other powers? The history of the mankind could be condensed into a simple process of powers’ rising, expanding, overstretching, being backfired, and in most cases finally collapsing. Having these historic lessons in the back of their minds, the leaders of China will not attempt such mistakes.
The One Belt and One Road project is a development initiative through which China will cooperate with all the countries along the road. China wants to change the world in this way instead of reviving the conquering Land Power. Even though this process will be slow and needs much patience. Central Asia is certainly an important region along the way, but in this context, the summit is just one of many small steps.
