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European NATO members accelerate plans to replace departing US military assets

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The structural transition toward a “European NATO” has accelerated rapidly amid a scaling back of US assets within the alliance and strategic preparations for a partial American withdrawal from the continent.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and senior NATO generals report that rapid progress is being made on the “Europeanization” of the military alliance.

As confirmed by the US Commander of NATO Allied Joint Force Command, General Alexus Grynkewich, European member states have succeeded in replacing a significant volume of US military aircraft, warships, and military units within just a few weeks, after Washington withdrew them from NATO availability in early June.

European units are currently deployed and on standby to replace the departing US forces.

Last week, Pistorius officially approved the designation of the 1st German-Netherlands Corps in Valga, Estonia, as the tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia.

This corps operates in parallel with the German-Polish-Danish Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin, Poland, which continues to serve as the headquarters for alliance operations in Poland and Lituania.

The development of a “European NATO” has been met with approval in Washington. Within the Pentagon, officials are referring to this transition as “NATO 3.0,” a restructuring designed to relieve the burden on the US, thereby enabling American operations in other theaters.

Washington has also praised Germany’s leadership in driving this transition.

Europe replaces the US

Plans to expand the operational activities of European member states within NATO—ensuring the alliance remains functional during a crisis even without the US—have been systematically executed since the beginning of last year.

These initiatives are driven by the potential inauguration of US President Donald Trump for a second term and the ongoing uncertainty over whether he will act on his repeated threats to withdraw the US from NATO.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal in April, while individual NATO member states initially took the lead on these initiatives, the efforts gained significant momentum late last year when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz decided that Germany would join the transition.

Concretely, the objective is to replace the US presence—which has historically been dominant at all levels in terms of both personnel and equipment—with officers and weapons systems from European nations.

For example, in the most recent major command restructuring announced in early February, European generals were promoted to lead Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Allied Joint Force Command Norfolk in Virginia, both of which were previously commanded by US generals.

NATO exercises are also increasingly being conducted under European leadership or exclusively with European troops.

Gaps filled, except for heavy bombers

A few days ago, European NATO member states took another step forward in this transition.

Shortly before the force generation conference held at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons, Belgium, in early June, the US withdrew a large number of aircraft, drones, ships, and submarines from NATO availability.

This decision meant that these assets ceased to be available for designated NATO operations.

The withdrawal affected, among other assets, one of two long-range bomber wings, 54 of 153 fighter jets, and half of the cruiser and destroyer units.

Last week, it was reported that European NATO members had managed to “largely bridge” these gaps ahead of the upcoming NATO summit, a development confirmed by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), US General Alexus Grynkewich.

According to reports, no suitable replacement has yet been found for the US long-range bombers. However, Grynkewich’s deputy, John Stringer, stated that the overall process serves as evidence of a “stronger Europe” within NATO.

New German-Dutch joint headquarters in the Baltics

Last week, the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and the Dutch Armed Forces took a further step in Estonia.

In Valga, located near the Latvian border, the 1st German-Netherlands Corps officially assumed the role of tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia in the presence of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Established in 1995, the corps was previously deployed primarily in Afghanistan. It has now been directly integrated into preparation efforts for a potential conflict with Russia.

This transition has altered the distribution of operational responsibilities in the Baltic region. The Multinational Corps Northeast, based in Szczecin, Poland, and led by Germany, Poland, and Denmark, has handed over its previous responsibilities for Estonia and Latvia. It will henceforth serve as a tactical headquarters managing NATO operations exclusively in Poland and Lithuania.

This area of responsibility includes the geostrategically highly sensitive Suwałki Gap, which runs from Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border to Kaliningrad.

NATO strategists view this corridor as a primary potential target for a Russian offensive.

According to a recent statement from the German Federal Ministry of Defense, the new role assigned to the 1st German-Netherlands Corps strengthens “the role of Europe within NATO.”

“NATO 3.0” advances: The theses of Elbridge Colby

The Europeanization of NATO is taking place in full coordination with the US, and under direct American pressure.

This strategic alignment was demonstrated during the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels on February 12 by statements from Elbridge Colby.

Colby, an influential Pentagon figure who serves as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, attended the meeting on behalf of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

According to Colby, NATO is currently entering a new historical phase. While the alliance focused on the collective transatlantic struggle against the Soviet Union in the decades following its founding, it shifted its focus after 1990 to out-of-area operations far beyond its borders, such as in Yugoslavia and later in Afghanistan.

Colby described this as the transition from “NATO 1.0” to “NATO 2.0.” Today, however, the task is to execute the transition to “NATO 3.0.”

This shift is driven by the reality that the US is currently focusing on new priorities: on one hand, new military activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, and on the other, establishing a more robust presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

In addition, Colby explained that the US must maintain the capacity to wage war on multiple fronts simultaneously.

US pushes Germany to lead

Colby further indicated that this geopolitical reality requires European nations to provide for their own defense to the greatest extent possible.

With the exception of nuclear deterrence, the US no longer possesses sufficient reserve capacity to secure Europe.

Consequently, European NATO members must not only continue to increase their military spending but also urgently expand their military capabilities.

The objective is to strengthen not only overall “readiness” but also weapons and ammunition stockpiles, alongside “industrial capacities” for all forms of defense production.

If this is achieved, Colby argued, NATO will emerge from its current challenges stronger than before.

In late April, Colby addressed this topic in detail on X, evaluating the German military strategy adopted at the time.

Colby concluded that the document confirmed Germany is now assuming a “leadership role.” Noting that the Pentagon stands ready to assist European NATO member states, particularly Germany, Colby welcomed the German military strategy as a “clear and credible path toward NATO 3.0.”

The Under Secretary emphasized that the strategy is “highly suitable to rapidly make NATO in Europe genuinely strong.”

Diplomacy

Ukraine targets first prototype of European Freyja missile defense system in early 2027

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As Ukraine continues to lobby allies for new weapons capabilities to counter Russian missile strikes, the country aims to have a prototype of the Freyja anti-ballistic system, developed in partnership with European allies, ready in the first half of next year.

David Aloyan, deputy secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council and director of the Freyja project, stated—as reported by Reuters—that an international steering committee tasked with calculating research and development costs will meet for the first time in the near future.

The anti-ballistic coalition was officially established two weeks ago at a summit held in the French capital, Paris. The summit was attended by leaders of 10 European nations, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside roughly 12 defense industry contractors.

Providing details on the timeline, Aloyan said: “We have an ambitious goal because we are working on a very tight schedule. We aim to have a viable prototype that can show its first practical results in the first half of next year.”

Ukraine remains chronically dependent on US-made Patriot air defense systems, which are currently the only weapons capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s hypersonic and high-velocity ballistic missiles. However, Patriot deliveries have faced persistent disruptions driven by political fluctuations, low inventory levels, and extended production cycles.

The Russian military intensified its ballistic missile strikes this month against the capital, Kyiv, and the southern port city of Odesa. Facing salvos of dozens of missiles, Ukraine was unable to destroy the majority of incoming targets due to a severe shortage of interceptor munitions.

The Ukrainian government has indicated that it is prepared to contribute a launch vehicle and an interceptor missile to the Freyja initiative. In comments made this month, President Zelenskyy remarked that the project has now become purely a “matter of testing,” expressing hope that the system will become operational within a year.

Kyiv expects its allies to provide specialized expertise and technology in advanced radars, sensors, and missile guidance and control electronics. Defense contractors participating in the project include Eurosam—the consortium behind the SAMP/T system—as well as Leonardo, Thales, and Saab.

Fire Point, the Ukrainian missile and drone manufacturer that developed the Flamingo cruise missile, announced that it will serve as the primary industrial partner for the project. The company disclosed last month that it had reached an agreement with German defense producer Hensoldt to supply the radar components required for the initiative.

The Freyja project stands out as an effort to construct a lower-cost alternative to the Patriot system, on which many European nations also rely. Other European air defense assets, such as the Franco-Italian SAMP/T and the German-made IRIS-T, have not yet demonstrated sufficient operational capability in intercepting ballistic missiles.

Zelenskyy likened the operational framework of the Freyja coalition to a Lego arrangement, in which defense industry leaders assemble interconnected components.

Emphasizing the flexibility of the design, Aloyan noted that manufacturers have been tasked with developing a system architecture featuring interchangeable components, stating:

“The core logic of this system is that it possesses an open architecture. If Denmark says, ‘I want a Freyja system configured with a Danish-made Weibel radar,’ that is possible. If Sweden states that it wishes to integrate a Saab system, that presents no issue either.”

Aloyan added that establishing a dedicated administrative body or fund to direct all project contributions and secure stable, continuous financing remains among the options under consideration.

The Ukrainian official stressed that direct corporate participation alongside sovereign governments would streamline bureaucracy, concluding: “The coalition must advance on practical grounds rather than political ones.”

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US expands Middle East air operations using German bases as regional casualties rise

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Germany continues to provide crucial logistical support to the US military as Washington prepares for a major expansion of the war against Iran, utilizing its extensive network of installations across the country.

According to a report by German Foreign Policy, US fighter jets and troops are being routed through Ramstein Air Base—mirroring operations conducted prior to the outbreak of hostilities and throughout the first 40 days of the conflict—where forces remain stationed ahead of an announced wave of heavy airstrikes.

Spangdahlem Air Base is playing an equally vital role in the logistical pipeline. F-16 fighter jets stationed at the site were redeployed last week to staging areas in the Middle East, having returned from combat missions in the region only a few weeks prior.

Meanwhile, Landstuhl Regional Medical Center—the largest US military hospital outside the United States—serves as a critical medical hub. In recent days, approximately one dozen US service members, including several with severe injuries, were evacuated to the facility for treatment.

Medical staffing at Landstuhl has been expanded significantly in anticipation of a further rise in casualties.

Ramstein

The US armed forces are drawing heavily on their military infrastructure in Germany to execute troop concentrations directed at Iran.

Ramstein Air Base near Kaiserslautern—the largest US Air Force installation outside the US and headquarters for US Air Force forces in Europe and Africa—is operating continuously to facilitate the deployment.

Ramstein has long drawn international attention for housing a satellite relay station used to control US military drone operations across Africa, the Near East, and the Middle East.

Data streams for other operational maneuvers are also routed through Ramstein, specifically those serving the war in Iran.

Furthermore, the installation operates as a permanent logistical turnstile for the conflict. Shortly after the outbreak of hostilties, Spanish military aircraft that were denied permission by Madrid to participate in the war effort were rerouted to Ramstein.

In contrast to the Spanish government, Berlin has raised no objections to providing logistical support for the military campaign against Iran.

On Wednesday, a US E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) aircraft landed at Ramstein after departing Robins Air Force Base in the US state of Georgia, before proceeding toward the Middle East.

The aircraft provides real-time relay and tactical coordination between fighter jets and bombers during airborne strike operations.

Spangdahlem

Spangdahlem Air Base, located in the Eifel region, is serving as a key node in reinforcing the US Air Force presence in the Middle East ahead of a comprehensive expansion of the war.

Last week, US F-16 fighters permanently stationed at Spangdahlem were dispatched to the Middle East.

Their movement was complemented by F-35 jets deployed from RAF Lakenheath, northeast of Cambridge, and additional F-16s launched from Aviano Air Base in northeastern Italy.

The Spangdahlem-based F-16s had returned from combat operations in the war zone just weeks earlier.

These aircraft are specialized in Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions, designed to neutralize hostile air defense systems.

David Deptula, a retired US Air Force lieutenant general and dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Washington, told the US military newspaper Stars and Stripes that deploying fighter jets in such large numbers from all three US Air Force units in Europe to the Arabian Peninsula was highly unusual.

However, Deptula noted that toward the end of the Cold War, the US Air Force maintained nine operational units in Europe rather than three, pointing to a long-term decline in overall force capacity.

Landstuhl

Alongside Ramstein and Spangdahlem, Landstuhl Regional Medical Center—the largest American military hospital outside the US—is being utilized with heightened intensity in connection with the war in Iran.

In recent days, approximately 12 severely wounded US service members were evacuated from Jordan to Landstuhl for specialized care.

The arrivals have drawn public scrutiny, in part because the Trump administration has reported US casualty figures far less frequently than previous administrations.

While the death of US military personnel must be publicly disclosed under statutory requirements, observers in the US note that these requirements do not extend to private military contractors, who constitute a significant share of personnel on US military bases.

Following recent admissions by the Pentagon that three US service members were killed in Iranian strikes near Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, investigations by US news outlets revealed that roughly 100 US military personnel were wounded between June 7 and last weekend.

Material damage from Iranian retaliation

In addition to figures on wounded US military personnel, initial investigative media reports have begun detailing the extent of structural damage inflicted on American weaponry and military infrastructure.

As reported by The New York Times on Wednesday, Iranian forces concentrated their strikes this month on nine locations with a US military presence, down from 18 during the first 40 days of the war.

Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was struck four times. According to the newspaper, drone strikes destroyed three buildings, two hangars, and structures believed to serve as living quarters.

Tower 22, a US military outpost in far northeastern Jordan along the Syrian border, also sustained severe damage.

In addition, hangars and a radar system at two other military bases in Jordan were hit, as was King Hussein International Airport, where US personnel are stationed.

In Bahrain, at least one warehouse was damaged, while a military tent was destroyed at Erbil International Airport in northern Iraq, where US troops are deployed.

Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait was also struck, and a radar system at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base—which had been operational for only six months—was destroyed.

These incidents represent only a portion of the damage confirmed to date.

Undisclosed US casualties

Beyond Washington’s public statements, preparations behind the scenes are underscored by the recent deployment of more than 150 additional US medical personnel to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center.

Should US President Donald Trump order an expansion of US attacks, officials anticipate a parallel escalation in Iranian retaliatory strikes and a corresponding rise in US casualties.

These casualties will include severely wounded personnel who will be evacuated to Germany for medical treatment.

Servicemen killed in Iranian counterattacks are also likely to be routed through Germany before their remains are repatriated to the US. Flights operated by Air Force Mortuary Affairs Operations (AFMAO) carrying fallen personnel from the combat zone to the US routinely make layovers at Ramstein.

This procedure was followed during the recent repatriation of the bodies of four US soldiers killed in the Middle East. Flights from Ramstein to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware reportedly take between nine and ten hours.

Legal implications for Berlin

To expand a war of aggression that violates international law, President Trump has formally announced upcoming US strikes on civilian infrastructure—actions that constitute war crimes.

The announcement of an intent to order war crimes carries serious legal implications for the German government.

Germany continues to allow the US armed forces to utilize military infrastructure on its territory, including Ramstein, Spangdahlem, and Landstuhl, and grants overflight rights without hesitation.

According to Michael Riegner, professor of public law, international law, and comparative law at the University of Erfurt and director of the university’s Global Justice Clinic, the argument that this support carries no legal consequences is untenable.

Riegner argues that limiting Article 26, Paragraph 1 of the German Basic Law strictly to the Bundeswehr is legally unacceptable.

The constitutional clause mandates punishment for “acts tending to upset the peaceful relations between nations, especially an act preparing for a war of aggression.”

Riegner contends that anyone who assists in the execution of a war of aggression is guilty of aiding and abetting an unlawful act.

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Bipartisan lawmakers raise concerns over US-Saudi nuclear agreement

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Some lawmakers from both parties are warning that a newly signed US nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia could trigger a regional arms race in the Middle East.

Although the agreement stems from negotiations that began before the outbreak of the war with Iran, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a longtime critic of Saudi Arabia, argued that announcing the deal now would have an immediate impact on the conflict.

“Everything that happens in Riyadh echoes in Tehran,” Murphy said. “One reason the United States was reluctant to offer Saudi Arabia this agreement was that we knew it would move Iran one step closer to a nuclear weapon, and that remains true today.”

Republican Senator John Kennedy said even the possibility that Saudi Arabia could one day enrich uranium would have the potential to rapidly alter the strategic balance in the region and beyond.

“I worry about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, Japan and South Korea,” Kennedy said.

With the Trump administration having already committed to the agreement with Saudi Arabia, the authority to reject it now rests with Congress.

Blocking the agreement, however, will be difficult, as opponents would need to secure a veto-proof two-thirds majority in both chambers.

The 30-year agreement announced on Wednesday allows private US nuclear companies to export to the Saudi market and establishes a framework for US security safeguards.

While the agreement does not guarantee that Saudi Arabia will enrich uranium, and any such capability would likely take at least a decade to develop, members of Congress argue that even this initial commitment could create a domino effect.

Republican Senator John Barrasso, also a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he was concerned the agreement could further complicate US efforts to persuade Iran to abandon uranium enrichment entirely.

“I am deeply concerned about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East because of the consequences it could produce,” Barrasso said.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have spent nearly two decades negotiating an agreement under which Washington would assist Riyadh in developing a civilian nuclear program.

According to two sources familiar with the matter, both the Biden and Trump administrations initially presented the proposal as an incentive for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel.

After the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel made normalization significantly more complicated, however, the Trump administration decided to separate the two issues.

Asked about the agreement while traveling in the Philippines on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed concerns that the arrangement could contribute to nuclear proliferation.

“The United States will not enter into any agreement with any country that creates a risk of nuclear weapons proliferation,” Rubio said.

In announcing the agreement, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said, “Rest assured, these agreements uphold the highest standards of nuclear security and nuclear nonproliferation.”

Saudi Arabia said in its own statement that the agreement is intended to strengthen cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy “in accordance with the highest international standards for nuclear security, nuclear safety and nuclear nonproliferation.”

For decades, the United States has generally avoided allowing new nuclear cooperation partners to enrich uranium domestically, instead insisting on a no-enrichment commitment known as the “gold standard,” most notably in its 2009 agreement with the United Arab Emirates.

Concerns in Washington have also focused on Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign the document known as the Additional Protocol.

The protocol is an agreement with the UN’s nuclear watchdog that grants inspectors broader access beyond declared facilities to detect undeclared nuclear activities.

That refusal, combined with Saudi Arabia’s potential enrichment capability, leaves the new agreement well short of the “gold standard” established by the 2009 UAE agreement.

Under that agreement, Abu Dhabi accepted such inspections and renounced the right to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium on its own territory.

Critics argue that abandoning both commitments marks a departure from the template Washington has relied on for decades to prevent nuclear proliferation.

The United States announced on Wednesday that it had also reached a bilateral safeguards agreement with Saudi Arabia but did not provide further details.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said he was surprised the administration had negotiated an agreement that could permit Riyadh to enrich uranium, unlike previous US nuclear cooperation agreements.

“What concerns me is the enrichment potential of Iran or Saudi Arabia. But I can also envision a scenario in which it is kept completely under control,” Johnson said.

Victoria Coates, who examined whether the United States could sell nuclear technology to Riyadh while serving as a senior official during the first Trump administration, said the agreement carries risks but that “those risks can be mitigated.”

Now serving at the conservative Heritage Foundation, Coates said, “As long as we monitor the situation closely and have clear visibility into what is happening, I think it is a risk worth taking.”

Republican Senator Mike Rounds said he would not object to Saudi Arabia enriching uranium on its own territory depending on the extent of the enrichment permitted under the agreement.

“It depends on how much they enrich the uranium. If it is 60% or less, that is far above what is needed for civilian purposes. But if we are talking only about enrichment to levels that can be used in nuclear power plants, I have no problem with that. Somebody is going to do it, and it is better that we do it than someone else,” Rounds said.

Under the agreement, the United States and Saudi Arabia will jointly study the feasibility of uranium enrichment within the kingdom.

According to two sources familiar with the agreement, if both sides determine such enrichment is acceptable, it would take place under a “black box” arrangement designed to prevent the transfer of sensitive technology to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has long sought to establish its own civilian nuclear program. Some analysts argue that cooperation with the United States would be preferable to Riyadh turning to Moscow or Beijing.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former intelligence official now at the Atlantic Council, said, “Without an agreement with the United States, Riyadh would almost certainly have turned to China or Russia, whose agreements would likely not include the restrictions contained in the US deal. But that does not mean the risks associated with this type of agreement are zero.”

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