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European NATO members accelerate plans to replace departing US military assets

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The structural transition toward a “European NATO” has accelerated rapidly amid a scaling back of US assets within the alliance and strategic preparations for a partial American withdrawal from the continent.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and senior NATO generals report that rapid progress is being made on the “Europeanization” of the military alliance.

As confirmed by the US Commander of NATO Allied Joint Force Command, General Alexus Grynkewich, European member states have succeeded in replacing a significant volume of US military aircraft, warships, and military units within just a few weeks, after Washington withdrew them from NATO availability in early June.

European units are currently deployed and on standby to replace the departing US forces.

Last week, Pistorius officially approved the designation of the 1st German-Netherlands Corps in Valga, Estonia, as the tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia.

This corps operates in parallel with the German-Polish-Danish Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin, Poland, which continues to serve as the headquarters for alliance operations in Poland and Lituania.

The development of a “European NATO” has been met with approval in Washington. Within the Pentagon, officials are referring to this transition as “NATO 3.0,” a restructuring designed to relieve the burden on the US, thereby enabling American operations in other theaters.

Washington has also praised Germany’s leadership in driving this transition.

Europe replaces the US

Plans to expand the operational activities of European member states within NATO—ensuring the alliance remains functional during a crisis even without the US—have been systematically executed since the beginning of last year.

These initiatives are driven by the potential inauguration of US President Donald Trump for a second term and the ongoing uncertainty over whether he will act on his repeated threats to withdraw the US from NATO.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal in April, while individual NATO member states initially took the lead on these initiatives, the efforts gained significant momentum late last year when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz decided that Germany would join the transition.

Concretely, the objective is to replace the US presence—which has historically been dominant at all levels in terms of both personnel and equipment—with officers and weapons systems from European nations.

For example, in the most recent major command restructuring announced in early February, European generals were promoted to lead Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Allied Joint Force Command Norfolk in Virginia, both of which were previously commanded by US generals.

NATO exercises are also increasingly being conducted under European leadership or exclusively with European troops.

Gaps filled, except for heavy bombers

A few days ago, European NATO member states took another step forward in this transition.

Shortly before the force generation conference held at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons, Belgium, in early June, the US withdrew a large number of aircraft, drones, ships, and submarines from NATO availability.

This decision meant that these assets ceased to be available for designated NATO operations.

The withdrawal affected, among other assets, one of two long-range bomber wings, 54 of 153 fighter jets, and half of the cruiser and destroyer units.

Last week, it was reported that European NATO members had managed to “largely bridge” these gaps ahead of the upcoming NATO summit, a development confirmed by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), US General Alexus Grynkewich.

According to reports, no suitable replacement has yet been found for the US long-range bombers. However, Grynkewich’s deputy, John Stringer, stated that the overall process serves as evidence of a “stronger Europe” within NATO.

New German-Dutch joint headquarters in the Baltics

Last week, the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and the Dutch Armed Forces took a further step in Estonia.

In Valga, located near the Latvian border, the 1st German-Netherlands Corps officially assumed the role of tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia in the presence of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Established in 1995, the corps was previously deployed primarily in Afghanistan. It has now been directly integrated into preparation efforts for a potential conflict with Russia.

This transition has altered the distribution of operational responsibilities in the Baltic region. The Multinational Corps Northeast, based in Szczecin, Poland, and led by Germany, Poland, and Denmark, has handed over its previous responsibilities for Estonia and Latvia. It will henceforth serve as a tactical headquarters managing NATO operations exclusively in Poland and Lithuania.

This area of responsibility includes the geostrategically highly sensitive Suwałki Gap, which runs from Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border to Kaliningrad.

NATO strategists view this corridor as a primary potential target for a Russian offensive.

According to a recent statement from the German Federal Ministry of Defense, the new role assigned to the 1st German-Netherlands Corps strengthens “the role of Europe within NATO.”

“NATO 3.0” advances: The theses of Elbridge Colby

The Europeanization of NATO is taking place in full coordination with the US, and under direct American pressure.

This strategic alignment was demonstrated during the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels on February 12 by statements from Elbridge Colby.

Colby, an influential Pentagon figure who serves as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, attended the meeting on behalf of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

According to Colby, NATO is currently entering a new historical phase. While the alliance focused on the collective transatlantic struggle against the Soviet Union in the decades following its founding, it shifted its focus after 1990 to out-of-area operations far beyond its borders, such as in Yugoslavia and later in Afghanistan.

Colby described this as the transition from “NATO 1.0” to “NATO 2.0.” Today, however, the task is to execute the transition to “NATO 3.0.”

This shift is driven by the reality that the US is currently focusing on new priorities: on one hand, new military activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, and on the other, establishing a more robust presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

In addition, Colby explained that the US must maintain the capacity to wage war on multiple fronts simultaneously.

US pushes Germany to lead

Colby further indicated that this geopolitical reality requires European nations to provide for their own defense to the greatest extent possible.

With the exception of nuclear deterrence, the US no longer possesses sufficient reserve capacity to secure Europe.

Consequently, European NATO members must not only continue to increase their military spending but also urgently expand their military capabilities.

The objective is to strengthen not only overall “readiness” but also weapons and ammunition stockpiles, alongside “industrial capacities” for all forms of defense production.

If this is achieved, Colby argued, NATO will emerge from its current challenges stronger than before.

In late April, Colby addressed this topic in detail on X, evaluating the German military strategy adopted at the time.

Colby concluded that the document confirmed Germany is now assuming a “leadership role.” Noting that the Pentagon stands ready to assist European NATO member states, particularly Germany, Colby welcomed the German military strategy as a “clear and credible path toward NATO 3.0.”

The Under Secretary emphasized that the strategy is “highly suitable to rapidly make NATO in Europe genuinely strong.”

Diplomacy

Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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Diplomacy

Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle

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US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.

White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.

“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”

In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.

According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.

The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.

Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.

“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”

Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.

Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.

These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.

Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.

In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.

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IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.

Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.

However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.

In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”

Tenreyro added:

“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.

Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.

US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.

This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.

Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.

Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.

The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.

However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.

The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.

The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.

According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.

These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.

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