Diplomacy
Germany nears controversial deportation deal with Taliban, prompting diplomatic resignations
Germany and the Taliban are on the verge of signing an agreement regarding the deportation of Afghan asylum seekers.
According to German media reports, the relevant arrangements were made over the weekend during a visit by a German ministerial delegation to Kabul.
As the first Taliban representatives were accredited as diplomats in Germany under the agreement, the entire staff of the Afghan Consulate General in Bonn resigned last week. According to the acting consul general, Berlin’s move poses a serious threat to the security of Afghans living in Germany.
The German government has already carried out the first deportations to Afghanistan in the past twelve months. It also aims to phase out the federal admission program for Afghans, launched in 2022 to regulate and control their acceptance, “as much as possible.”
The program has so far led to the admission of only a few Afghans due to both procedural complexities and a lack of political will. Meanwhile, tensions are rising between Pakistan and Germany over the program.
Afghan staff in Bonn resign
The entire staff of the Afghan Consulate General in Bonn resigned last week. They were protesting Germany’s decision to accredit two Taliban representatives.
The accreditation occurred as Berlin was attempting to secure a deal with Afghan authorities to deport “Afghan criminals” from Germany.
According to federal government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius, the two new representatives will help coordinate deportation flights. However, this step is criticized by Hamid Nangialay Kabiri, who has served as the consul until now, as a “serious threat” to the security of Afghan citizens living in Germany, as it gives the Taliban access to sensitive documents and information about them.
Approximately 442,000 Afghan citizens live in Germany; about 36,000 of them have immigrated to the Federal Republic of Germany since the Taliban seized power in August 2021.
Over the weekend, two officers from the Federal Police Department of the Federal Ministry of the Interior were reportedly in Kabul to advance practical arrangements for future deportations. Accordingly, the signing of the deportation agreement is imminent.
Deportation flights to be expanded
When the Taliban came to power, the Federal Government initially suspended the deportation of Afghans.
However, the coalition government has since resumed returns; at the end of last year, 28 Afghans convicted of crimes were deported.
The new federal government took such a measure for the second time in July of this year, deporting 81 Afghans. As agreed in the coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD, deportations will now be significantly expanded.
During the summer, the government also temporarily suspended the admission procedure for local Afghan staff. However, following an appeal by an Afghan family whose visa application was rejected by the Foreign Office, the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court declared the suspension to be legal.
The current federal government now wants to go a step further and terminate the federal admission program “as much as possible.”
History of the Federal Admission Program
Immediately following the chaotic withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2021, more than 30,000 Afghans, including former local employees of the German Armed Forces, immigrated to Germany.
To steer the initially spontaneous process in an orderly and therefore controllable direction, the traffic-light government launched the “Federal Admission Program for Afghanistan” in October 2022.
Under this program, asylum applications could be made online to German authorities from Afghanistan. If the application was approved, the applicant received entry documents from the German embassy in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, allowing them to enter Germany legally.
In this way, the federal government maintained control over who came to Germany. Berlin’s preferred target group was particularly women and individuals who stated their commitment to “Western values.”
The program’s ambitious goal was to accept one thousand Afghans each month and fly them to Germany. However, nearly three years after the program’s launch, only about 3,000 people have been accepted, and only half of them have reached Germany.
Public criticism further complicated the program. For instance, when the magazine Cicero claimed in March 2023 that a “Sharia judge” had entered Germany through a precursor to the federal admission program, the previous coalition government halted the entire process. The process was restarted only after even stricter restrictions were imposed.
AfD influence also restricted the program
At times, the federal government also cited domestic political events as a reason to block the entry of Afghans who had already been approved by the authorities.
For example, a planned flight from Afghanistan in September 2024 was canceled on short notice after the federal government argued that the timing was too sensitive due to state elections in three eastern German states and the foreseeable electoral success of the AfD.
Over time, voices calling for the complete abolition of the program grew louder. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann even promised that with a Union-led federal government in power, “these planes from Afghanistan” would no longer come to Germany.
The coalition agreement now speaks of abolishing the program “as much as possible,” noting that existing commitments cannot be easily canceled from a legal standpoint.
However, the Head of the Chancellery, Thorsten Frei (CDU), announced that every commitment would be re-examined “very carefully” to determine if there was a possibility of rejection.
This stance is not entirely new: the traffic-light government had also blocked the entry of Afghans on several occasions and even carried out the first deportation after the Taliban’s rise to power.
Tensions with Pakistan are rising
Meanwhile, tensions between Germany and Pakistan are escalating. Afghans applying for visas must obtain a Pakistani visa to travel to Islamabad for their document review.
However, the German visa procedure there is indefinitely delayed, causing their Pakistani visas to expire, and they are rarely extended. Consequently, many Afghans are forced to hide in their homes to avoid being caught by Pakistani authorities, who conduct regular raids to apprehend those with expired visas.
Islamabad accuses Berlin of regularly ignoring its request to expedite the visa procedure for Afghans. The situation escalated in August when Pakistan detained approximately 435 Afghans and deported 210 of them to Afghanistan.
Pakistan agreed to take them back only after Germany pledged to finally grant them visas by the end of the year. But Islamabad’s patience is wearing thin. Currently, about 2,280 Afghans are in Pakistan under the German admission program. If the federal government delays the admission process long enough, they too will be sent back to Afghanistan.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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