America
Half-billion-dollar oil trade before Trump Iran post sparks market questions
Investors executed roughly half a billion dollars in oil trades just minutes before Donald Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran, prompting questions about timing and market awareness.
On Monday, between 06:49 and 06:50 New York time, approximately 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands. The transactions occurred about 15 minutes before the US president posted on Truth Social that recent discussions with Tehran aimed at ending the war had been “productive.”
Calculations by the Financial Times, based on Bloomberg data, put the notional value of those trades at $580 million.
Trading volumes in Brent and WTI spiked simultaneously 27 seconds before 06:50. Shortly after the oil trades, futures tracking the S&P 500 rose, with volumes also increasing markedly during that interval.
It was not clear whether a single institution or multiple entities were behind Monday’s trades.
At 07:04, Trump’s statement triggered a sharp sell-off in global energy markets as investors scaled back expectations of a prolonged conflict. At the same time, S&P 500 futures and European equities moved higher.
The well-timed transactions echoed a recent wave of highly profitable bets on the prediction market Polymarket, where traders had speculated on the timing of US strikes on Iran and Venezuela.
A market strategist at a US brokerage, referring to Monday’s activity, said: “It’s hard to prove causality… but you have to wonder who was being relatively aggressive in selling futures 15 minutes before Trump’s post.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said: “President Trump and officials in the Trump administration are solely focused on doing what is best for the American people.”
Desai added: “The White House does not tolerate any official profiting illegally from inside information, and suggestions made without evidence that officials engaged in such activity are baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Several hedge funds said the trades were one of many recent instances of large market moves preceding official US government announcements.
A trader at a large hedge fund said energy consultants had recently identified several sizable block trades whose timing appeared “unusual.”
Another portfolio manager said a series of large, well-timed trades had created a sense of “frustration” among investors:
“My instinct, from watching markets for 25 years, is that this is really abnormal. On Monday morning, there was no major data, no Fed speaker you’d want to front-run. It’s an unusually large trade for a day without event risk… someone just got a lot richer.”
Later on Monday, in a post on X, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied that any negotiations had taken place between Washington and Tehran.
“False news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and to help the US and Israel out of the quagmire they are stuck in,” he said.
His remarks pushed global equities lower and prompted renewed buying in energy markets.
A commodities trader said the scale of the oil futures selling was not exceptionally large compared with volumes in what had already been a volatile pre-war market. However, the trader noted a sharp move in Europe’s TTF gas benchmark at roughly the same time.
Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at consultancy Energy Aspects, said: “This is higher volume than I would have expected at that time in Brent and WTI, but not extremely high. I struggle somewhat to connect the dots here.”
Skirrow added that Brent futures and options markets had seen “significant inflows” from funds in recent weeks.
“Looking at the price reaction, almost everyone appears to be long. That is almost inevitably a precursor to a move of this magnitude,” he said.
America
ICE contractors steer over $12m to US campaigns ahead of midterms
A total of $12 million in donations has been identified in connection with CoreCivic, Palantir, GEO Group, NANA Regional, and CSI Aviation, among the companies profiting most from operations run by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
An investigation conducted by the Emancipator covers political spending since President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office.
These firms develop the software that ICE uses to target migrants.
They also charter the aircraft used to deport migrants to other countries and run the large detention centres where migrants are held.
The donations detailed appear to be legal. By law, federal contractors cannot contribute directly to political campaigns.
However, they can still influence electoral races through individuals in their employ and affiliated political action committees (PACs).
Previous reporting noted that several of these companies had lobbied for legislative bills supporting ICE spending.
The Emancipator revealed that while these firms primarily donated to back Republicans, they also steered funds to Democrats.
In some instances, these money flows took place in states with contested congressional and Senate races where the companies own or operate detention facilities.
To trace the political money flows, the Emancipator used a company list based on earlier reporting by The Project on Government Oversight.
It then independently reviewed affiliated PACs and federal campaign contribution records linked to company executives.
According to the Emancipator’s findings, at least 10 executives connected to ICE-linked firms, including some former executives, directed more than $9.7 million in political contributions since 2025.
For example, Allen Weh, the chief executive of CSI Aviation, donated more than $250,000. The company is the primary entity behind the majority of ICE deportation flights.
Weh’s contributions went to bodies such as the Republican National Committee and “Our Values”, a Republican-aligned super PAC.
Weh also contributed to the campaigns of Republican Senate candidates, including Jon Husted in Ohio and Thomas Cotton in Arkansas.
More than $2.5 million flowed over the past two years from CoreCivic, one of the largest private detention operators in the US, which runs 23 ICE facilities.
This money represents political spending reported in campaign finance filings and Section 527 disclosures on behalf of a PAC and company-affiliated executives.
According to a 527 filing, CoreCivic directed $675,000 to the Republican Governors Association over the past two years. During the same period, CoreCivic also contributed $330,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.
Governors hold significant authority over detention facilities and state legislation, and these groups channel support to governors aligned with their respective parties.
CoreCivic sent $135,000 to the Republican State Leadership Committee, the nation’s largest organization supporting down-ballot Republican state politicians.
Just over $200,000 was channelled through CoreCivic’s PAC.
Tracking records show the PAC directed its largest contributions to jurisdictions where it operates facilities, including Georgia, where it runs an ICE facility; Texas, where it operates seven; and Tennessee, where the company is headquartered.
CoreCivic’s PAC gave the maximum allowable contribution of $5,000 to both US Senate and House campaigns in Montana, Virginia, and Arizona.
Recipients of the PAC’s funding included Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign in North Carolina, as well as Republican-aligned PACs such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Fund for America’s Future, and Texas First.
CoreCivic donated $5,000 to the campaign of Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Collins faced fierce criticism on immigration, even though Maine recently enacted state-level “ICE Out of Maine” legislation.
CoreCivic executives also donated directly to candidates.
Lucibeth Mayberry, the current chief executive of CoreCivic, made a modest $500 donation to support Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in his bid for re-election.
Meanwhile, former chief executive Damon Hininger donated more than $1 million. Over the past two years, Hininger sent roughly $660,000 to the Republican National Committee and more than $100,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Palantir, a provider of data platforms used by ICE across the country, channelled roughly $8.3 million to politicians across the political spectrum and throughout the nation through executive spending and its PAC.
The vast majority of this political spending, over $8 million, came from the company’s executives.
Federal election records show that over the past few years, Palantir co-founder and board chairman Peter Thiel donated just over $3.2 million to Republican-leaning campaigns, candidates, and political action committees.
Chief executive Alex Karp also gave more than $1.9 million in total, largely to back Republican candidates, while contributing to Democratic campaign funds as well.
Weeks before Abigail Spanberger’s election as governor of Virginia, Karp donated $10,000 to the Democratic Party of Virginia.
GEO Group, which operates private prisons and detention facilities, runs 28 ICE facilities in states such as Texas, Georgia, and California.
At least two of these facilities are situated in the swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Senior company executives and an affiliated PAC directed roughly $1.5 million nationwide so far during Trump’s second term.
More than half of this sum was routed through the firm’s PAC, while about a quarter of a million dollars came from executives.
GEO Group founder and chief executive George Zoley holds several dozen campaign receipts showing total contributions of $210,000 to various Republican campaigns.
NANA Regional Corporation, an Alaska Native corporation, profits by selling security services to ICE.
This entity spent the smallest amount. Over the past few years, NANA’s PAC channelled just over $50,000 to politicians and political groups.
Records for company executives and 527 accounts showed no notable political spending.
America
Ex-Mossad operative assisted Flavio Bolsonaro Brazil escape, probe says
It has emerged that Flavio Bolsonaro, who lost the presidential election in Brazil, left the country for Argentina accompanied by a former operative of Israel’s foreign intelligence service, Mossad.
According to a report by CNN Brasil citing an investigation conducted by Brazilian authorities, the former Israeli agent, who later obtained US citizenship, entered Brazil on 19 October and accompanied Bolsonaro as he departed the country following his electoral defeat.
Records show that the former agent was in the same vehicle as the Brazilian politician while crossing the Argentine border on 27 October.
Brazilian authorities believe that Bolsonaro’s departure was organized with the support of Buenos Aires and Washington.
Citing investigative findings, CNN Brasil reported that Bolsonaro left Brazil for Argentina alongside his wife and two daughters in two minivans.
Agencies investigating the politician’s departure established that security cameras captured the vehicles crossing the Tancredo Neves Bridge on the border between the two countries.
The television network noted that the drivers were identified because they presented their passports upon entering Argentina.
A former member of the municipal council of the Brazilian city of Foz do Iguacu was driving the minivan carrying Bolsonaro, while that former council member’s son was driving the family of the former presidential candidate.
In the Argentine border city of Puerto Iguazu, Bolsonaro boarded an aircraft belonging to the Argentine airline Baires Fly together with his wife and daughters.
After a refuelling stop in Ecuador en route, the plane landed in Miami on the morning of 28 October.
According to data from Brazilian authorities, the operation was carried out with the assistance of at least two countries.
Officials leading the inquiry believe Bolsonaro received backing during the final phase of the election’s second round.
Brazilian government representatives said this support constituted “assistance from the governments of Argentina and the US.”
Investigative bodies believe Bolsonaro’s departure was not organized at the last minute, but was instead an extensive international operation codenamed “Operation Alba”.
Election defeat, revoked passports, and US entry permit
Bolsonaro was defeated by current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, held on 25 October.
After the results were announced, Bolsonaro declared that he did not recognize the outcome of the vote and left Brazil.
In an open letter published on the social media platform X on 28 October, Bolsonaro described himself as the “president-elect”, though he later deleted that version and shared a new post proclaiming himself the country’s “leader”.
Meanwhile, media reports suggested that US President Donald Trump was not inclined to recognize Bolsonaro as Brazil’s leader, while also mentioning the possibility that the Brazilian politician could be granted an expedited green card.
The Reuters news agency reported that Bolsonaro made the decision to travel to the US at the last minute, after a Brazilian Supreme Court justice revoked all of his passports.
Law enforcement agencies are investigating Bolsonaro’s potential links to two separate money-laundering schemes.
A source speaking to Reuters claimed that Jason Miller, an adviser to Trump who is close to the Bolsonaro family, helped organize the flight from Argentina.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also advised President Donald Trump to permit the Brazilian politician to enter the country, a recommendation Trump accepted.
Bolsonaro and his family were subsequently granted temporary entry permission on humanitarian grounds.
Rubio, however, denied allegations that the US government played a direct role in Bolsonaro’s departure from Brazil.
Stating that the Brazilian politician held a visa and that Trump had decided to permit his entry, Rubio maintained that US authorities took no part in organizing the travel.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, the father of Flavio Bolsonaro, remains imprisoned in Brazil in connection with a case concerning an attempted coup following his defeat in the 2022 election.
The younger Bolsonaro had promised that his first act upon winning the election would be to free his father from prison.
During his presidency, Jair Bolsonaro was commonly referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics”.
America
Venezuela to privatize assets and return firms, Delcy Rodríguez says
Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, on Thursday defended a plan to privatize state assets and return nationalized companies to their former owners.
In a televised address to the nation, Rodríguez said: “I have ordered an assessment of non-essential state assets, so that these assets can be offered to the private sector or returned to their previous owners.” She added:
“This process is already under way. The right to private property is guaranteed by our Constitution.”
In April, the interim president established a commission tasked with evaluating the “strategic” value of state enterprises, land, and other assets to determine whether they should be retained, privatized, or liquidated.
During the 2000s, former President Hugo Chávez carried out a nationalization programme aimed at consolidating state control over strategic sectors including electricity, telecommunications, and heavy industry.
Having enacted a comprehensive, business-friendly reform of hydrocarbons and mining legislation earlier this year, Venezuela’s parliament is on the verge of approving the partial privatization of the electricity sector.
Foreign companies are also in talks to acquire the country’s largest aluminium smelter, while a consortium led by Sunergon Oil is reportedly pushing to take over several industrial facilities linked to the oil industry.
Luigi Pisella, a business representative heading the commission, recently presented a legislative proposal.
The legislation aims to guarantee the participation of local capital alongside multinational corporations in privatized public entities.
In an interview with the magazine Banca y Negocios, Pisella said:
“I have not encountered any resistance to this idea. Most investors agree that having local partners, whose experience is vital for navigating the complex Venezuelan environment, is indispensable.”
Pisella added that “different models of private-sector participation” were being evaluated, but he rejected “strategic alliances” in which the state retains ownership rights while transferring assets through concession-type agreements.
The business spokesperson argued that “no one will invest” unless ownership is transferred completely.
In her Thursday address, Vice President Rodríguez also promised that workers’ income would be increased quarterly next year at a rate at least matching GDP growth:
“For 2027, we are planning increases in workers’ income across four distinct periods; the amount of these increases will never fall below the economic growth of the preceding quarters.”
Rodríguez made no mention of adjusting the minimum wage, which has been frozen since 2022 and is currently worth approximately 0.15 US dollars.
Instead, Venezuelan authorities have leaned heavily on non-wage bonuses. These bonuses act as a de facto subsidy for employers, as they are excluded from holiday pay, severance calculations, and other labour entitlements.
Public sector employees currently receive a minimum monthly income of 240 dollars.
Although Venezuela’s GDP is projected to expand by 5% to 10% in 2026, increasing non-wage bonuses at that pace falls short of keeping up with inflation.
The financial website Ecoanalitica estimates that prices measured in US dollars will climb by 20% to 30% in 2026.
This means that an income adjustment tied to GDP growth would result in an erosion of purchasing power.
In her address, Rodríguez went on to praise ongoing labour reform talks involving business lobby groups and selected trade unions.
Private-sector associations such as FEDECAMARAS and FEDEINDUSTRIA want to lower labour costs for employers, further reduce social security contributions, and eliminate the retroactive application of severance pay and other benefits, ensuring that future wage increases do not trigger corresponding liabilities.
Finally, the interim leader defended recent judicial reforms and ongoing talks with a faction of the US-backed Venezuelan opposition that will appoint a new Supreme Court and National Electoral Council.
The US State Department had claimed that new presidential elections would be held in 2027.
Rodríguez did not provide any specifics regarding the electoral timetable, stating only: “Elections will be held under the auspices of a renewed electoral authority and before the eyes of the world.”
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