Europe
Hamburg drill tests Baltic deployment prior to formal defense alert
Since Thursday, the German Armed Forces and civilian agencies in Hamburg have been conducting drills simulating the deployment of troops to NATO’s eastern flank.
The core scenario of the “Red Storm Charlie” exercise is a mobilization toward the Baltic states ahead of a potential Russian attack: prior, that is, to any declaration of a state of emergency or defense alert.
According to German Foreign Policy, this means that emergency laws, which permit a massive domestic clampdown, would not be enacted.
Begun two years ago with Red Storm Alpha and continued last year with Red Storm Bravo, the Red Storm exercise series centres on mobilizing “civilian support services” for military deployment against Russia.
According to the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr), a total of 500 soldiers with heavy equipment are training for deployment to the Eastern Front.
The drill is taking place not only on military training grounds, but also in the very midst of civilian life.
Lieutenant Colonel Juergen Bredtmann of the responsible Hamburg State Command remarked after Red Storm Bravo that the soldiers were “smiling” and “extremely excited [because] they could finally implement such a thing in a satisfying manner.”
Such “free-range” exercises in civilian settlements are being conducted with increasing frequency.
Neither peace nor war
According to Lieutenant Colonel Bredtmann, the military plans to carry out these convoy movements across the urban area of Hamburg predominantly at night.
The German officer acknowledged that, in peacetime, “moving a convoy through rush-hour traffic on a Friday afternoon would be difficult.”
In the event of war, the German Basic Law permits state agencies to exercise sweeping emergency powers, compelling civilians and business owners to contribute labour and material in the service of the armed forces.
These measures include, for example, converting corporate premises into rest staging areas for military vehicles, requisitioning civilian lorries, or obliging healthcare personnel to work in military hospitals.
In such circumstances, the scope of coercive measures also widens; this includes deploying the military against insurgents, which is constitutionally permitted.
Yet with the Red Storm Charlie exercise, the armed forces are now openly training for a “precautionary redeployment of military forces to eastern alliance territory.”
In other words, mobilization to the east is taking place prior to any frequently cited “Russian attack.”
Regarding Red Storm Charlie, the Bundeswehr states:
“In the scenario depicted, a state of tension or a state of defense determined by the German Bundestag does not yet exist; consequently, from a legal standpoint, we remain at peace.”
Civilian forces integrated into the military
In its domestic national defense, Berlin relies primarily on civilian forces to free up as many soldiers as possible for combat on the Eastern Front.
Only a few soldiers are to remain behind; remaining tasks will be undertaken by “homeland defense forces” (meaning military reserve units) and civilians.
The stated objective of Red Storm is to “enhance the operational capabilities of all participants.”
Alongside the Federal Police, participants include police forces from Hamburg, Lower Saxony, and Schleswig-Holstein; the fire brigade and the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW); the University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf; the German Red Cross; the airport, port, and the Hamburg elevated railway system; the Chambers of Commerce and Crafts; Lufthansa; Airbus; Blohm + Voss; Philips; the Hamburg Trade Fair; and Edeka.
Local media are also lending active support: on the occasion of the exercise, public broadcaster NDR published recommendations from the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK).
Under these guidelines, all Germans should stockpile 20 litres of water, 14 days of food, medicine, an emergency kit, and a hand-crank radio in preparation for war with nuclear-armed Russia.
Supermarket chain joins war preparations
The Edeka retail chain is not only supporting this year’s Red Storm exercise, but is also actively participating in the implementation of the BBK’s war-preparedness measures.
Alongside public relations efforts promoting war readiness and involvement in the convoy initiative, Edeka and its discount subsidiary Netto are marketing a “specially developed emergency backpack” as a “compact foundation for private crisis preparedness” in connection with the war games. The backpack includes a packing checklist and a hand-crank radio.
Edeka is also taking part in Red Storm Business, a Chamber of Commerce initiative in which the Bundeswehr is not explicitly involved.
Through Red Storm Business, a civilian training programme, the Chamber of Commerce seeks to enable enterprises to “gain practical experience with a specific crisis scenario within their own operations” in order to test their “autonomous operational capacity.”
The drill simulates an extended power outage. More than 160 companies have signed up voluntarily, including Edeka, Airbus, Rheinmetall, Deutsche Bahn, Unilever, and Hamburger Hochbahn, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises.
German military prepares for potential protests
Civilian society, however, is not merely offering cooperation; it is also voicing opposition.
Numerous groups from the expanding anti-war movement, ranging from trade unions such as the GEW to organizations such as Disarm Rheinmetall, are calling for protests and active resistance against the exercise.
Handling public protests is an explicit component of the Red Storm series: footage from last year showed a simulated sit-in blockade featuring red pyrotechnics and demonstrators glued to the ground.
Bundeswehr troops were required to clear this blockade during the exercise.
Accordingly, the federal government anticipates that, in a mobilization scenario, the population would stage mass protests ranging from escalating demonstrations and blockades to sabotage.
Ukraine war critics monitored by domestic intelligence
According to Sinan Selen, vice president of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, or BfV), even “discontent” or mere “criticism of the existing system” must be treated as suspicious, as it creates “vulnerabilities” to “Russian narratives.”
According to Selen, the “Do Not Become a Disposable Agent” campaign, conducted jointly by the BfV and the police, seeks to target individuals who “approach the Ukraine conflict critically… and are interested in Russia.”
When several electrical substations were attacked recently, police investigated not only a suspected “far-left background” but also whether the incidents constituted “sabotage directed by a foreign state.”
Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt suggested that links could exist “between extremist elements and state terrorism,” adding that whether “one is tied to the other is always examined as part of the investigations.”
With the expansion of civil-military cooperation, state agencies are increasingly blurring the boundaries separating the armed forces, police, and domestic and foreign intelligence services.
Europe
Most EU citizens reject fast-track Ukraine accession, poll finds
An opinion survey conducted across the European Union has revealed that 53% of bloc citizens oppose admitting Ukraine to the EU through an accelerated process in the coming years.
According to the study carried out by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 47% of EU residents support the idea of fast-track membership.
The most pronounced opposition to rapid accession was recorded in Romania at 60%, followed by Germany at 59%, and France and Poland at 57% each.
The lowest resistance to Ukraine’s accelerated membership was found in Sweden at 31%. This figure stood at 37% in Spain and Portugal, and remained at 43% in the Netherlands.
Domestic support for the process remains exceptionally high; 83% of the public in Ukraine want to join the bloc as soon as possible.
Europeans differ over defence contributions and strategic benefits
The survey also examined perceptions regarding the defence of the continent. Some 58% of Ukrainians believe that their “resistance against Russia’s military campaign protects the entire continent and the EU as a whole.”
In contrast, 29% of bloc citizens share the view that the EU and its member states contribute more to defending the union than Ukraine does.
While 23% of participants view the efforts of both sides as equal, the share of those who consider Ukraine to be the bloc’s “primary protector” remains at 16%.
The study also indicates that low expectations concerning the tangible benefits Ukraine would provide to the bloc contribute to the limited support for its membership.
Only 14% of surveyed Europeans believe that this accession will make the EU stronger and more influential on a global scale. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who anticipate that Ukraine’s entry will increase the bloc’s resilience was measured at 11%.
Timetable debate persists in the negotiation process
Ukraine applied for membership immediately after Russia’s military intervention and gained candidate status in 2022.
The accession process encompasses a 33-chapter reform package organised under six clusters, which aims to guarantee democratic and economic standards.
Formal accession talks began in June 2024. The negotiation process, which had long been blocked by Hungary, made progress after Peter Magyar took office as the country’s prime minister.
Magyar also succeeded in having the term “accelerated accession” for Ukraine removed from EU texts.
Magyar argued that a contrary approach would send the wrong message to Western Balkan nations, such as Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, which have worked towards membership for years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for the membership process to be completed by 2027, stating that this would provide a fundamental security guarantee for both Ukraine and Europe.
On the other hand, circles within the bloc that oppose rushing the process insist on the complete fulfilment of all conditions, including anti-corruption measures.
Meanwhile, the EU Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, points to 2030 as a likely accession date.
For membership to take place following the completion of negotiations, all 27 EU member states must grant unanimous approval.
So far, only the first of the six chapter clusters, covering fundamental values and principles such as the rule of law, human rights, and the judiciary, has been opened for Ukraine.
Europe
NATO unveils 32-nation defence strategy to counter adversaries
NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grynkewich has unveiled a new defence strategy aimed at rendering any attack against an alliance member entirely futile.
Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, Grynkewich said the concept, titled the “Theory of War”, is designed to prevent hostile elements from infiltrating NATO territory and waging conflict there.
Arguing that they aim to reassure the one billion people living within the alliance’s borders, Grynkewich maintained that they also wish to send a message to adversaries such as Russia that NATO is prepared for a potential invasion.
“If we are attacked, we are ready to fight even tonight,” Grynkewich said.
Three-stage defence plan enters into force
Approved by all 32 alliance members, the plan combines land forces and conventional weapons systems with advanced technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles, counter-drone systems, and artificial intelligence.
Lessons drawn from ground and air combat in Ukraine, as well as current conflicts in the Middle East, play a decisive role in shaping the strategy.
According to Grynkewich, the new defence doctrine rests on three fundamental phases that form the core of NATO’s approach:
The first pillar of the plan, the “block” phase, focuses on preventing hostile forces from seizing allied territory.
In this context, NATO ground components will engage directly with attacking units, restrict their manoeuvrability, and neutralise forces attempting to breach alliance borders.
Should the assault continue, the second phase (“blunt”) will come into play, deploying autonomous systems requiring minimal human intervention alongside advanced sensor networks to slow the momentum of the attack and wear down advancing forces.
These systems will detect threats in real time, combining capabilities across different operational domains to halt the adversary’s advance.
The final stage, the “break” phase, will target not the attacking units directly, but the operational warfighting system that sustains them.
Command centres, supply chains, and logistics routes will be struck using long-range precision strike systems and sensor networks, eliminating the adversary’s ability to sustain military operations.
“Enemy commanders will not be able to direct their troops, their supply lines will be severed, and their logistics vehicles will be destroyed,” Grynkewich said.
Strategy aims to defend borders rather than gain territory
Noting that NATO has no intention of acquiring territory and that the strategy is entirely defence-oriented, Grynkewich said, “We have no plan, intention, or ambition beyond protecting our citizens and our territory.”
Stating that he considers the likelihood of a direct attack on alliance territory to be low, the commander nevertheless stated that they would respond without hesitation to any attempt targeting allies.
Addressing questions regarding US commitment to the alliance, Grynkewich recalled that Washington reaffirmed its adherence to Article 5 at the NATO summit in July.
Article 5, which forms the cornerstone of NATO’s collective defence principle, stipulates that an armed attack against one ally is considered an attack against all members.
Europe
Germany detains two Turkish suspects over Polish Starlink arson
Polish authorities have announced that German police detained two Turkish citizens suspected of setting fire to a Starlink station near Warsaw last month.
Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister coordinating the special services, told a news conference in Warsaw on Monday that Poland has requested the suspects’ extradition and has “no doubt” that Russian secret services were behind the arson attack.
“It should also be noted that Russian intelligence agencies are increasingly turning to people linked to the criminal underworld,” Siemoniak said at the press conference.
In a post on X, Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the incident as another “act of hybrid warfare” and said those responsible for the sabotage would be brought to justice in Poland.
Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski said the two Turkish citizens would be charged in Poland with carrying out an act of sabotage on the orders of a foreign intelligence agency.
Power supply equipment at a Starlink ground station serving Eastern Europe, including Poland and Ukraine, caught fire on the night of 23 September.
The incident did not cause a major disruption to internet service. The blaze, however, completely destroyed the station’s electrical system and backup generator.
Poland, a key transit route for Western aid to Ukraine, has faced a series of suspicious incidents recently.
Numerous cyberattacks have targeted public utilities, including water and energy infrastructure as well as hospitals.
In addition, damage to a railway line between Warsaw and the Ukrainian border was attributed by officials to Russian sabotage.
In late July, a Russian missile also landed in Poland.
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