How long can Israel endure a protracted war?

The US-Israel axis continues its unremitting aggression against Iran. As US imperialism and Israeli Zionism recognize no boundaries in their hostility, many experts debate Iran’s weapons stockpiles, its economic resilience, and its troop levels. Clearly, Iran has prepared against US-Israeli aggression far better than the West anticipated, and its resilience remains remarkably high. Tehran has evidently drawn the necessary lessons from last year’s 12-Day War with Israel.

The questions Western experts pose to Iran must also be directed at Israel. As the number and precision of the missiles and rockets Iran strikes Israel with increase, so too does the propensity of Israel’s young, well-educated, urban population to emigrate and take up residence in the US or European nations.

Let us recall that Israel declared war only after launching an assault and initiating a genocide against Gaza, which it had kept under blockade for years. Immediately following the declaration of war in October 2023, 360,000 reservists were called to mobilization. These reservists serve across a vast spectrum, ranging from industry to agriculture. The obligation for reserve duty persists until the age of 51. Consequently, drafting such a massive cohort—extracting them from business, production, and commerce—signifies a substantial loss of income and output for Israel. With a population of roughly 10 million, Israel struggles to compensate for this labor deficit. According to a report by the Beirut-based Center for Political Studies, reservists constitute roughly two-thirds of the total strength of the Israeli military—a country where women are also conscripted. This ratio is the highest in the world compared to other militaries. According to Global Firepower data from the US, Israel’s military possesses 173,000 active-duty personnel and 465,000 reservists. The degree of volunteerism and enthusiasm among these reservists when summoned, and the actual percentage that positively responds to the call, remain separate subjects of contention within the country.

In the Israeli army, where mandatory conscription occurs between the ages of 18 and 21, there are fundamentally three main groups: professional active-duty soldiers, those serving their mandatory term, and the reserve forces. As a state that is both a theocracy and a security state, Israel’s national security doctrine relies on the principle of a “populated, armed, and thus trained and organized citizenry.” Therefore, Israel can summon all citizens who have completed their service, received weapons training, and are capable of bearing arms. This condition also applies to Israeli citizens abroad. There exists a segment that does not serve due to religious reasons—a matter that is constantly debated in Israel, with its religious, political, legal, and military dimensions.

Israeli aggression knows no bounds

With the unbridled support of US imperialism, Israel is attacking Palestine. By perpetrating genocide and establishing new settlements, it is occupying Palestinian lands. It is striking Lebanon. It is striking Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is attempting to prolong his political future through these attacks, occupations, and acts of genocide, aiming to obscure the corruption allegations leveled against himself and his wife. It appears he is successful in this endeavor.

However, regardless of the blows it sustains or the aggression it faces, it is evident that Iran is not Syria, Iraq, or Venezuela. The US-Israel duo is aware of this reality. They perceive that regime change in Iran is exceedingly difficult. They acknowledge that they cannot achieve their objectives in Iran solely through airstrikes, bombardments, missiles, and rockets. Consequently, they do not entirely exclude the possibility of a ground assault on Iran using special forces. Due to Iran’s mountainous geography, vast surface area, large population, the resilience of its people, and its battle-hardened military, the US-Israel duo—unwilling to risk a ground invasion or urban warfare—periodically vocalize the option of utilizing special forces to strike specific strategic targets. Yet, they have not yet been able to commit to this. Committing to it remains exceptionally difficult.

US arms companies are smiling

In our analysis, beyond the intensity, depth, and complexity of US-Israeli relations, and beyond the political, military, economic, geopolitical, and strategic dimensions of the US toward the Middle East, one must consider the avarice of the military-industrial structure—a dominant sector within the US economy.

This military-industrial structure, which exerts massive influence across a wide sphere—from the business world, industry, and commerce, to politics, bureaucracy, academia, media, think tanks, and lobbies—rejoices every time a war breaks out. Each time the US initiates an attack, stock prices climb, and its profits swell. The increase in defense spending by NATO members, the Arab nations setting aside larger budgets for armaments, the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, and the unlimited support the US provides to Israel all benefit the defense industry in the US and its mega-scale arms corporations. The so-called “Big Five” of this sector—Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman—are the beneficiaries. They routinely secure at least $150 billion in contracts from the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) each year.

The expansion of NATO has also greatly pleased these companies. Let us note that US imperialism has brought Europe under its geopolitical and strategic sway—both directly and through the mediums of NATO and the European Union. Europe has become a welfare society, but it has outsourced its security to the US. Today, even that welfare society has weakened considerably. NATO, the instrument of US imperialist aggression and occupation, has succeeded in keeping the US inside Europe, Russia outside of Europe, and Germany within its own borders. It has bolstered the profits of US arms companies. On the other hand, all of this aggression, barbarism, wars, occupations, and genocides have further heightened anti-American sentiment. It has accelerated the search for alternatives to the US and bolstered regional alliances.