Large oil trades before Axios Iran report trigger insider information debate

Large-scale oil trades placed minutes before Axios published a report claiming the United States and Iran were nearing an agreement to end the war have renewed debate over the possible use of insider information in financial markets.

According to market data, unidentified investors opened roughly $920 million in short positions on May 6, betting that oil prices would fall. The timing drew attention because the trades were executed only minutes before Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were approaching an agreement that could bring the war to an end.

Based on subsequent movements in oil prices, the short positions may have generated an estimated profit of about $125 million.

The Axios report was written by journalist Barak Ravid, a former member of Unit 8200, the Israeli military’s cyber intelligence division. The report said the US and Iran were nearing agreement on “a one-page memorandum of understanding that would end the war and create a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.”

Ravid is known for his contacts within the circles of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. The journalist has previously drawn attention for exclusive reports citing officials from both governments.

Following publication of the report, Brent crude prices fell by more than 10%. The benchmark dropped from $108 a barrel to as low as $97 before partially recovering to trade at around $102 by the close of the session.

The unusual trades were first highlighted publicly by Unusual Whales, a social media account that tracks abnormal market activity and posts market data on X.

Trump later referred to Ravid’s report, saying the US and Iran had held “good talks in the last 24 hours.” He also said he believed an agreement would be reached soon.

Iran, however, denied the Axios report.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, wrote on social media that “the Axios text is more of an American wish list than reality.”

Rezaei also said, “The Americans will not achieve through a failed war what they failed to obtain in previous negotiations.”

The roughly 10% drop in oil prices following the market moves reinforced estimates that the investors behind the trades may have earned approximately $125 million in profits.

Similar trades seen before

Similar large-scale trades were also reported ahead of previous Axios stories suggesting progress in US-Iran negotiations.

Among them was a roughly $950 million position opened on April 8 in anticipation of falling oil prices. Following that report, crude prices were said to have dropped by 15%.

On the same day, the White House reportedly sent an internal email warning all staff against using classified information for financial transactions.

Oil prices had surged sharply since the US and Israel launched military attacks against Iran more than two months earlier. The escalation coincided with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil trade normally passes.

Polymarket trades also spark controversy

In recent months, several investors alleged to possess insider knowledge have also been accused of attempting to profit from Washington’s foreign policy moves through trades on prediction market platform Polymarket.

According to a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, or ACDC, military operation forecasts on Polymarket achieved a 52% success rate, intensifying debate over whether leaked insider information was being used on the platform.

The report said the success rate for general political bets on the platform stood at 25%, while broader prediction markets recorded a rate of 14%.

Donald Trump Jr., son of US President Donald Trump, officially became an adviser to Polymarket in 2025. His company was also reported to have invested millions of dollars in the platform.

In early February, Shin Bet, Israeli police and the Defense Ministry reportedly detained several soldiers suspected of using classified information to place bets through Polymarket.

Bets concerning former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also became a subject of controversy.

About $553,000 was reportedly wagered on predictions that Khamenei would lose power during the war that began on February 28. Khamenei was later killed in a US strike carried out during the conflict.

In April, US Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was reportedly arrested for allegedly using classified military intelligence to place bets on prediction markets tied to the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

Van Dyke was said to have wagered more than $33,000 on predictions concerning the timing of US forces entering Venezuela and the overthrow of Maduro.