Journalist Sharmine Narwani says that for a long-term solution to the crisis in the country, the state, its constitution and practices must be completely revised. According to Narwani, if Lebanon was viewed as a stalwart western ally, the plug would not have been pulled.
Lebanon, which has been struggling with one of the most serious economic crises in its history since 2019, is also in political trouble. A government has not been formed since the elections held in May. Political groups in the parliament could not reach a compromise for the seat of President Michel Aoun, whose term of office expired at the end of October. The country, where the economic crisis hits the people more and more with each passing day, is currently governed by a temporary government with limited authority.
We talked to journalist Sharmine Narwani about the economic and political crisis the country is going through, the IMF negotiations, the maritime border deal signed with Tel Aviv and how the Israeli election results resonated in Beirut.
‘Lebanon needs 3 to 4 years to benefit from its reserves’
- In the maritime agreement that Lebanon and Israel negotiated through the US, what precisely will be Israel’s authority in the Karish field? How many rights and stakes does Israel have in the drilling operations that Lebanon will carry out in this field (for instance, the choice of the drilling company)? What benefit did this agreement provide for Lebanon?
Israel will have full authority over the Karish gas field whose gas reserves are estimated at 1.4 trillion cubic feet. Energean, the outsourced oil and gas drilling company on this job, has already commenced its activities in the field. While Lebanon received full rights in the more northern Qana gas field, it agreed to allow Israel to share in 17% of the royalties through a bilateral side agreement with the French company Total Energies for the section of the field that extends beyond the agreed maritime border.
Block 9 that contains the Qana field, is still in the expedition phase and the reserves are still unknown – which means Lebanon is still far away from realizing those rewards. Until we know the amount of gas reserves off Lebanon’s shores, we cannot estimate how much the state will benefit from this maritime agreement. Keep in mind that even if Total Energies commenced drilling today, Lebanon needs 3 to 4 years to benefit from its reserves – according to oil and gas experts.
‘The financial crisis in Lebanon didn’t happen overnight’
- There is now no President in Lebanon due to Michel Aoun’s term expiring, and the current Lebanese Government serves in this capacity on an interim basis. It is believed that the temporary administration is unable to use the President’s executive authority, including the right to sign treaties with foreign countries and organizations. In the situation that the president cannot be determined, how will the Lebanese administration, whose power is limited, handle the economic crisis and global relations? Is there a risk of a management crisis?
Recently, the Lebanese parliament failed to elect a president for the 7th time. Unfortunately, no one in Lebanon seems encouraged to pressure their elected politicians to conduct this vital task: the Lebanese have long since dropped any expectations from their existing governments or any future ones. It is largely because Lebanon’s development, prosperity, and security appear to be in the hands of foreign decisionmakers, and not domestic ones.
The financial crisis in Lebanon didn’t happen overnight. Its buildup began in the 1990s, when the country entered an unprecedented era of corruption, cronyism, and faulty economic practices. Too be honest, if Lebanon was viewed as a stalwart western ally, the plug would not have been pulled, and these crooked practices would be continuing today. But Lebanon needed to be “pressured” – to keep Syria isolated, to keep the Lebanese resistance in line, to hinder the regional influence of Iran. Turkey is familiar with these kinds of foreign financial tools that are applied when your government does not accede to foreign wishes. It was the same in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s financial and economic unravelling finally took place in 2019, but to date we have not witnessed any true management of these monumental misdeeds and their catastrophic future risks. Most of the political and business elite that drove Lebanon into this crisis remain at the helm od the country’s decision-making process, and are actively protecting their interests – which means preventing third party audits and investigations.
It is important to note that Washington had a veto on the arrest and sacking of Lebanon’s Riad Salameh, a personal hire of Lebanon’s former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, who is often credited with driving and institutionalizing the country’s corruption in the 1990s. Although under investigation in several European countries for fraud and embezzlement, Salameh is very much protected by the Americans and by corrupt Lebanese political party heads, who fear the revelations he could provide if he were removed from his post and lost all immunity.
‘Hezbollah may choose an unexpected candidate’
- Sleiman Frangieh, I suppose, is Hezbollah’s candidate, but rumors suggest that Gebran Bassil is also angling for Hezbollah’s endorsement. Is there any consensus over the upcoming presidency?
To be honest, nobody knows Hezbollah’s calculations for who they will ultimately support as president of the republic. Gebran Bassil and Sleiman Frangieh are two of Hezbollah’s strong Christian allies, but Hezbollah has never mentioned their names for the candidacy, nor did either of these men declare their candidacy for presidency.
We can see from recent events that western powers and some of its regional allies, especially France, are angling to install General Joseph Aoun, the current head of the Lebanese army, in Baabda, where the presidential palace is located. Previously, Saudi Arabia, through its ambassador Walid al-Bukhari, threw its support behind the pro-US candidacy of Michel Mouawad, who received an average of 40 votes out of the needed 65 in recent elections.
A couple of things that should be noted: First, three of Lebanon’s recent presidents – Michel Aoun, Emile Lahoud, and Michel Sleiman – were heads of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). That position has sadly become a political springboard for Lebanese presidents, and this is not a good trend in any country. The army must protect the territorial integrity of the state, and provide essential security – it should not be in the business of politics. That can lead to the loss of popular trust in this vital state institution. So, making General Joseph Aoun president would cement this dangerous trend.
Second, Hezbollah’s geopolitical and domestic calculations may be vastly different than we expect. Some analysts point out that the resistance may in fact choose to throw its support behind a more pro-west candidate, in order to remove a layer of economic hardship imposed Lebanon and re-calibrate its financial situation. This would provide vital relief for the coiuntry’s population, while Hezbollah will continue to retain its ability to scuttle any government plans that threaten Lebanon’s security, draw it closer to Israel, or undermine the region’s Resistance Axis.
In addition, supporting such an “unlikely” candidate would ensure that Hezbollah and its allies do not continue to be blamed for Lebanon’s woes. This is a very pervasive propaganda theme the west encourages and incites in Lebanon, and so with a president like Joseph Aoun, western powers would be forced to work to alleviate the country’s crisis, or else be blamed for it.
In short, Hezbollah has many more options for the presidency than just the usual suspects. Everything depends on their calculations, which we do not know.
The solution to the crisis is in comprehensive change
- The talks with the IMF had progressed to a certain stage during the administration of former President Aoun. Does the interim government have the authority to sign an agreement with the IMF? What benefits would the Lebanese economy receive from the signing of this agreement? Is the IMF fund a long-term fix for Lebanon’s challenges? How would you describe and analyze the economic crisis in Lebanon?
I’m sorry, but has the IMF ever solved the financial and economic problems of any country in the Global South? One can quite objectively observe that IMF loans tend, in fact, to create more indebted and less sovereign states – nations that are forced to endure unimaginable austerity measures, accompanied by massive layoffs and the movement of key public utilities into the hands of the private sector which denies governments its essential revenues.
Furthermore, the loan amounts the IMF is discussing with Lebanon wouldn’t make an iota of difference to the country’s financial crisis. It would merely go into servicing old, bad loans and catapulting the state into even worse economic circumstances. It is short-term fix, at best.
A long-term solution to Lebanon’s crisis would mean the literal overhaul of the state, its constitution, and its practices – the wholesale sacking of the entrenched political class, and the opening of Lebanon’s borders and trade to an entirely new paradigm: eastern commerce versus western servitude. Will Lebanon do that though? Certainly not now. All hands are on deck to prevent it. But as Europe begins itself to recalibrate its Atlanticist leanings this winter, one can anticipate the beginnings of a major global shift eastward. And I don’t just mean toward Russia, China, Iran, but more generally, toward mulipolarity and less economic, political, and trade constraints on states.
‘Israel’s uber-right wing government is good for Lebanon’
- One of the most extreme right-wing governments in Israel’s history is expected to be established. What does Lebanon think of the potential Israeli government and its proposed agenda? Do you anticipate any new conflict or tension in the near future?
Lebanon as a nation and government shows little interest in Israeli politics. Any mention of Israel exposes the divide in Lebanon between the pro-US/Gulf Lebanese and the pro-resistance/independence ones.
This country is so suffused by foreign-promoted propaganda, that apparently the only “threat” to Lebanon is from the Lebanese resistance itself. And only the US, France, and Saudi Arabia can keep Lebanon “safe” – although they never, ever did that, and they are hugely repossible for the country’s current unravelling.
The only ones who keep watch on Israel are the Lebanese resistance, and they do that so well, that Tel Aviv has not dared to launch an attack on Lebanon since 2006.
I would even go so far to say that Israel’s uber-right wing government is good for Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was an excellent true “face of Zionism.” The longer these people endure, the less the globally community engages with Israel. It was under Netanyahu’s reign that we first heard words like “apartheid” and “genocide” used in mainstream, English-language media around the world.
If Israel chooses to launch a military attack on Lebanon, Hezbollah swears that this next conflict will be fought inside Israel, for the first time ever. Tel Aviv’s military establishment is well aware that in terms of numbers and advanced technology, Hezbollah’s missile arsenal itself will be unlike anything – and any war – that Israel has ever fought in its short, brutal history. The region’s Resistance Axis has also threatened that any serious Israeli attack on any one of them will be responded to by all its members, on multiple fronts and borders.
Israel’s far-right government can posture all it likes, but it will actively seek to avoid a direct military confrontation with the Axis’ two most prepared members, Hezbollah and Iran. Do not forget that Tel Aviv now faces direct, daily armed resistance inside the West Bank for the first time in two decades. This, after the conflagration in May 2021, when for the first time in forever, Palestinians from the 1948 borders rose up in support of their co-nationals in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem.
At this point in its existence, Israel expected to have dominated the entire region economically and militarily, but instead, today, its borders have never been smaller, and its future as a state, never more in question.
Sharmine Narwani is a Beirut-based writer and analyst of West Asian geopolitics, and a columnist at The Cradle. Her work has been published in a broad array of media outlets, including The American Conservative, Russia Today, The New York Times, USA Today, The Guardian, Al-Akhbar English, Assafir, Huffington Post, BRICS Post, Salon.com, Al Jazeera and others. She is cited in many publications for her groundbreaking, investigative coverage of the Syrian conflict.
