NATO to discuss ‘5%’ military spending plan at Antalya summit

NATO foreign ministers will discuss new plans to increase military spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first time at a meeting starting today in Antalya.

According to the proposal, 3.5% of GDP will be allocated directly to the armed forces, and 1.5% to infrastructure and war preparedness. The increase could be finalized at the NATO summit in The Hague six weeks from now.

For Germany, 5% of GDP currently equates to 215 billion euros, which constitutes 44% of the current budget of approximately 489 billion euros.

The plan for all NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to military spending has reportedly been pushed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte since his return from talks in Washington at the end of April.

It is indicated that Rutte previously favored a figure of 3.5% of GDP but was unable to convince US President Donald Trump. Rutte was able to reach a compromise whereby 3.5% of GDP would go directly to the armed forces, and 1.5% of GDP would be used to make infrastructure ready for war.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof provided information about this plan last Friday, and this information has been confirmed by other sources.

The new 5% target is intended to be reached within just seven years, by 2032. However, discussions are still ongoing about how the 1.5% share for infrastructure will be specifically implemented.

A number of countries want to deduct their expenditures on cybersecurity or the strengthening of external borders from this share.

Nevertheless, it is certain that there will be a massive increase in military spending in Europe.

In 2024, European NATO countries spent 476 billion dollars (428 billion euros) on their armed forces, but to reach 3.5% of GDP, they will have to increase this to 805 billion dollars (725 billion euros).

When the 1.5% of GDP for infrastructure spending for war preparations is added, total expenditures reach 5% of GDP, or 1.150 trillion dollars (1.035 trillion euros).

The Federal Republic of Germany will have to increase its military budget from the current approximately 52 billion euros to 150 billion euros; total spending for war preparations will reach 215 billion euros.

If the German economy experiences renewed growth in the future, the share of defense spending relative to GDP will increase further.

For comparison, the federal budget draft allocates just over 22 billion euros for education and research, and 16.5 billion euros for health.

Furthermore, the budget item for labor and social services, which includes pensions and social benefits, constitutes less than 4.2% of GDP, despite being the largest item in the German state budget.

The consequences of such an unprecedented arms race, to be financed by debt, are entirely uncertain.

Before the new federal government took office, the Bundestag authorized up to 500 billion euros in spending on infrastructure (including military infrastructure) and allowed the constitutional debt brake to be bypassed for German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) expenditures.

While Germany can currently manage its rapidly increasing debt due to armament spending, southern European countries like France, Italy, and Spain fear entering a new debt crisis due to their already high debt levels.

Therefore, a complete collapse of the European economy in an armament debt crisis is no longer unthinkable.