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Refer again to UAE

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Taliban’s Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani accompanied by Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of Taliban intelligence, had once again traveled to the United Arab Emirates, and according to the sources, the trip served multiple objectives. Both the officials seemed to be meeting for the second time with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of this country. These two Taliban officials went again on an unexpected trip to the UAE and made news because compared to other Taliban officials, they travel less to nearby countries. So far, Haqqani has only made an open trip to the UAE and Wasiq is also part of these trips.

The return of Trump in White House – concern for the Taliban

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States, is not without influence on the trip of these two Taliban officials in the UAE. To be honest, Trump’s personality type is such that his return has worried even his allies. Look at Israel – an ally that was impatiently waiting for Trump’s return, but now the country is watching the events around with fear. Even if the Taliban are happy with his return, they still cannot be indifferent to everything.

What has added to the concern of the Taliban are Trump’s statements mixed with warning – stop sending money and withdraw military equipment. Even if he does not fulfill these two promises, he has disturbed the peaceful sleep of the Taliban. Worse, if the story of his possible support for the opposition forces of the Taliban gets hotter, the Taliban will not sleep peacefully. As we know, the UAE is one of America’s key allies in the Middle East. More importantly, Al Nahyan is Trump’s favorite – the popularity that led to the recognition of Israel by Abu Dhabi.

The current president of the United States also signed a contract for the sale of 50 F35 fighters with the UAE, but Joe Biden, the previous president, did not implement it. This is despite the fact that only Israel has this type of American fighter. It is clear from Haqqani’s travels that his words are important to Abu Dhabi. Therefore, if the UAE wants to, it can change Trump’s approach towards the Taliban and put to the concerns of the Taliban.

It is clear that the Taliban, by taking refuge in the courts of Qatar, the UAE, etc., were able to draw the attention of American officials.

Internal conflict, foreign support

Serious rumors about rising tension between the Haqqanis and the Kandaharis can also be the motivation to turn to Al Nahyan’s court again. What shows the suspicion of internal tension more strongly is the assassination of Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of Taliban refugees, and more importantly, the introduction of a non-Haqqani in his place: Maulwi Abdul Kabir, the former political deputy of the Taliban prime minister.

Maulwi Kabir is satisfied with accepting the post of the Ministry of Immigrants, but he has not moved to the building of this ministry so far and he is doing his current work from his previous place – this work of his also added to the ambiguity of the story.

The Haqqanis have also remained silent about this transfer, which, according to many experts, indicates the dissatisfaction of this network. When the dispute becomes more entrenched, it is obvious that the Haqqanis will try to find a foreign ally, especially in the situation where the Kandaharis are more relaxed to the tune of India and Qatar.

The problem of TTP and the necessity of mediation

Reports about the possibility of the UAE mediating between the Taliban and Pakistan in order to solve the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) problem are also circulating, but its authenticity cannot be trusted for two reasons: First, the Haqqanis, while having influence over the TTP, also have a warm relationship with Pakistan.

Sirajuddin Haqqani’s establishment of a one-month ceasefire between the parties at the beginning of the Taliban’s return to power indicates her influence on the TTP and her good relations with Islamabad. More importantly, despite the acute verbal and border tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Haqqani bloc has not criticized this country. Moreover, TTP fighters are present in areas that are mainly included in the Haqqani’s sphere of influence.

Therefore, since this network has all the tools at its disposal, the need for UAE mediation is eliminated. It is questionable that it has not done anything to solve Pakistan’s concerns. Therefore, it was logical that the UAE hosted Kandaharis instead of Haqqani, who sound harsh warnings to Islamabad and are very sensitive about the fate of TTP.

Second, China has also tried to curb the TTP, but failed to convince the Taliban. Of course, the UAE has also done so, but compared to China, his words have less impact on the Taliban.

Because the latter is a major global power, it has influence in the Security Council, it is connected to the geography of Afghanistan, and more importantly, by extracting the country’s mineral resources, it deposits a huge amount of money into the pockets of the Taliban.

When China has failed despite all its efforts, it is not unlikely that Abu Dhabi will suffer the same fate. Of course, the UAE is interested in mediation diplomacy in order to surpass its rival (Qatar), whose mediation in the exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners is a clear example.

India in pursuit of gaining the trust of the Haqqanis

Contrary to what was stated in the third point, India’s foot can also be in the middle. New Delhi has a good relationship with the Kandaharis to the extent that it arouses Pakistan’s concern – but he has not succeeded in establishing an open relationship with the Haqqanis.

Every time the representatives of India have visited Kabul, they have not met with the Haqqanis but with the Kandahari Taliban. This indicates the closeness of the Haqqanis to Pakistan.

The recent meeting of Maulvi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister of the Taliban, with the deputy foreign minister of India, in the city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has fueled a wave of concern in Pakistan. From this meeting, it can be understood that the UAE acts as a facilitating force in the expansion of India’s relationship with the Taliban.

Probably, the Indian side has asked Abu Dhabi to obtain the consent of the Haqqanis, something that, if realized, will double the concern of Islamabad, and this country will have no choice but to clarify its duty with the Taliban.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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