Diplomacy
Refer again to UAE
Taliban’s Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani accompanied by Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of Taliban intelligence, had once again traveled to the United Arab Emirates, and according to the sources, the trip served multiple objectives. Both the officials seemed to be meeting for the second time with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of this country. These two Taliban officials went again on an unexpected trip to the UAE and made news because compared to other Taliban officials, they travel less to nearby countries. So far, Haqqani has only made an open trip to the UAE and Wasiq is also part of these trips.
The return of Trump in White House – concern for the Taliban
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States, is not without influence on the trip of these two Taliban officials in the UAE. To be honest, Trump’s personality type is such that his return has worried even his allies. Look at Israel – an ally that was impatiently waiting for Trump’s return, but now the country is watching the events around with fear. Even if the Taliban are happy with his return, they still cannot be indifferent to everything.
What has added to the concern of the Taliban are Trump’s statements mixed with warning – stop sending money and withdraw military equipment. Even if he does not fulfill these two promises, he has disturbed the peaceful sleep of the Taliban. Worse, if the story of his possible support for the opposition forces of the Taliban gets hotter, the Taliban will not sleep peacefully. As we know, the UAE is one of America’s key allies in the Middle East. More importantly, Al Nahyan is Trump’s favorite – the popularity that led to the recognition of Israel by Abu Dhabi.
The current president of the United States also signed a contract for the sale of 50 F35 fighters with the UAE, but Joe Biden, the previous president, did not implement it. This is despite the fact that only Israel has this type of American fighter. It is clear from Haqqani’s travels that his words are important to Abu Dhabi. Therefore, if the UAE wants to, it can change Trump’s approach towards the Taliban and put to the concerns of the Taliban.
It is clear that the Taliban, by taking refuge in the courts of Qatar, the UAE, etc., were able to draw the attention of American officials.
Internal conflict, foreign support
Serious rumors about rising tension between the Haqqanis and the Kandaharis can also be the motivation to turn to Al Nahyan’s court again. What shows the suspicion of internal tension more strongly is the assassination of Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of Taliban refugees, and more importantly, the introduction of a non-Haqqani in his place: Maulwi Abdul Kabir, the former political deputy of the Taliban prime minister.
Maulwi Kabir is satisfied with accepting the post of the Ministry of Immigrants, but he has not moved to the building of this ministry so far and he is doing his current work from his previous place – this work of his also added to the ambiguity of the story.
The Haqqanis have also remained silent about this transfer, which, according to many experts, indicates the dissatisfaction of this network. When the dispute becomes more entrenched, it is obvious that the Haqqanis will try to find a foreign ally, especially in the situation where the Kandaharis are more relaxed to the tune of India and Qatar.
The problem of TTP and the necessity of mediation
Reports about the possibility of the UAE mediating between the Taliban and Pakistan in order to solve the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) problem are also circulating, but its authenticity cannot be trusted for two reasons: First, the Haqqanis, while having influence over the TTP, also have a warm relationship with Pakistan.
Sirajuddin Haqqani’s establishment of a one-month ceasefire between the parties at the beginning of the Taliban’s return to power indicates her influence on the TTP and her good relations with Islamabad. More importantly, despite the acute verbal and border tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Haqqani bloc has not criticized this country. Moreover, TTP fighters are present in areas that are mainly included in the Haqqani’s sphere of influence.
Therefore, since this network has all the tools at its disposal, the need for UAE mediation is eliminated. It is questionable that it has not done anything to solve Pakistan’s concerns. Therefore, it was logical that the UAE hosted Kandaharis instead of Haqqani, who sound harsh warnings to Islamabad and are very sensitive about the fate of TTP.
Second, China has also tried to curb the TTP, but failed to convince the Taliban. Of course, the UAE has also done so, but compared to China, his words have less impact on the Taliban.
Because the latter is a major global power, it has influence in the Security Council, it is connected to the geography of Afghanistan, and more importantly, by extracting the country’s mineral resources, it deposits a huge amount of money into the pockets of the Taliban.
When China has failed despite all its efforts, it is not unlikely that Abu Dhabi will suffer the same fate. Of course, the UAE is interested in mediation diplomacy in order to surpass its rival (Qatar), whose mediation in the exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners is a clear example.
India in pursuit of gaining the trust of the Haqqanis
Contrary to what was stated in the third point, India’s foot can also be in the middle. New Delhi has a good relationship with the Kandaharis to the extent that it arouses Pakistan’s concern – but he has not succeeded in establishing an open relationship with the Haqqanis.
Every time the representatives of India have visited Kabul, they have not met with the Haqqanis but with the Kandahari Taliban. This indicates the closeness of the Haqqanis to Pakistan.
The recent meeting of Maulvi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister of the Taliban, with the deputy foreign minister of India, in the city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has fueled a wave of concern in Pakistan. From this meeting, it can be understood that the UAE acts as a facilitating force in the expansion of India’s relationship with the Taliban.
Probably, the Indian side has asked Abu Dhabi to obtain the consent of the Haqqanis, something that, if realized, will double the concern of Islamabad, and this country will have no choice but to clarify its duty with the Taliban.
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
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