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US PCE inflation surges to 4.1% in May as war in Iran drives up energy prices

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Federal inflation data released on Thursday showed prices recording their fastest annual increase in three years, presenting severe challenges for President Donald Trump and economic policymakers.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, revealed that prices rose 4.1% over the past year, with a 0.7% increase in May alone.

While a significant portion of the increase was driven by high energy prices linked to the war in Iran, the broad-based nature of the price increases in May has alarmed economists.

Five key takeaways emerge from the newly released data:

The rising cost of the war in Iran

The new PCE report underscores the stark costs of the war in Iran, where global supplies of oil and other key commodities have been disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

US households spent $552.8 billion on gasoline and other energy products in May, up from $422.3 billion in February and $401.6 billion in May 2025.

Prices for gasoline and energy products rose by 6.5% in May, following a 20.9% surge in March and a 5.5% increase in April. March marked the first full month of the war in Iran.

“Inflation is at a three-year high because of the war in Iran, and it’s a grinding process for middle- and lower-income Americans,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in an analysis.

Trump’s cost-of-living challenge deepens

President Trump last week expressed confidence that inflation would quickly recede following an agreement reached with Iran that allowed a significant resumption of oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to that development, crude oil prices fell sharply, and retail gasoline prices began trending downward in June.

However, Long warned that the May inflation data shows Americans are facing a much deeper cost-of-living crisis even as they wait for gasoline prices to permanently fall.

Even excluding volatile food and energy costs, core annual inflation reached 3.4% in May. The core index rose 0.3% last month alone, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

“The inflation spike isn’t just about oil,” Long said. “Shelter, healthcare, and electricity are also squeezing family budgets and driving overall inflation.”

Trump already faced severe voter backlash over inflation before launching the war in Iran. Having campaigned during the 2024 presidential race on a promise to bring down prices, the president and Republicans are struggling to convince voters they can be trusted on the issue.

Trump also abruptly canceled a signing ceremony scheduled for Wednesday for a bipartisan housing bill that passed the House of Representatives earlier this week, disrupting what could have been a key legislative victory for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.

While Trump initially said he was holding up the legislation due to a dispute with Senate Republicans over a voting rights bill, he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that only lower interest rates would truly revive the housing market.

“It’s all about the interest rate,” Trump said. “Get the interest rate down.”

Rising pressure on the Fed over interest rates

Following the hot inflation data, a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasingly seen as highly unlikely.

Members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously last week to hold interest rates steady as inflation continued to rise and the labor market showed signs of improvement.

The combination of high inflation and resilient economic activity undercuts the likelihood of the Fed stimulating the economy through interest rate cuts. If both inflation and labor demand continue to climb, the Fed may even be forced to raise rates.

Bill Adams, chief US economist at Fifth Third Bank, offered the following assessment:

“If core inflation is still running at these rates in September, or if labor supply constraints start pushing the unemployment rate down, a rate hike will become likely,” Adams said. “In the near term, the biggest upside risks to inflation come from the AI boom straining prices for electronics and power, and from labor-intensive services in industries with high shares of foreign-born workers.”

Global volatility clouds the outlook

A long-term resolution to the war in Iran could help bring down gasoline prices and ease broader inflationary pressures.

However, lingering uncertainties over the US-Iran deal and Israel’s continued military pressure on Lebanon keep the risk of new flashpoints alive.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that despite efforts by international bodies to restore normal maritime traffic in the Gulf, tankers must navigate Iranian-controlled routes in the Strait of Hormuz or risk attack.

According to data and analytics firm Kpler, the United Nations International Maritime Organization launched an operation earlier this week to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers from the strait, confirming Thursday that the number of transiting vessels had risen to 70.

Economic activity persists despite price hikes

The US economy has remained resilient in the face of high inflation, buoyed by rising consumer spending and falling weekly jobless claims.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% in May, even as prices climbed at a faster pace.

This indicates that consumers are largely funding their expenditures through savings or stock market gains.

“The personal saving rate has fallen to 3% in recent months, down from 4.6% in 2025, which suggests consumers are dipping into savings or drawing on wealth to fund spending,” said Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Rising financial wealth continues to support spending among higher-income households.”

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Wealthy Americans drive surge in New Zealand golden visa demand

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More than 700 wealthy foreign nationals have applied for New Zealand residency under the country’s “golden visa” programme over the past 14 months, compared with just 115 applications during the previous three years.

Applicants are required to invest at least NZ$5 million in local funds, companies or charitable organisations within three years.

A further 127 people have applied under a separate programme that requires an investment of NZ$10 million in passive assets such as bonds for five years.

The surge followed a relaxation of rules governing property purchases, investment requirements and the amount of time applicants must spend in the country to qualify.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the increase in applications for the right to live, work and study indefinitely in New Zealand has coincided with a period of geopolitical uncertainty that has made the country’s security and remote location increasingly attractive.

Dozens of countries around the world, from Portugal to the US, offer preferential immigration treatment in exchange for investment or, in some cases, cash payments.

Many have had mixed experiences with such schemes. Ireland, Malta and Australia have scrapped their programmes because of insufficient demand or concerns over abuse.

In New Zealand’s case, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon hopes the visas will attract more foreign investment and help reverse a “brain drain” that threatens the country’s economic growth.

Although tourists often fall in love with New Zealand and dream of moving there, many young New Zealanders leave in search of better economic opportunities.

According to Luxon, New Zealand start-ups have already begun benefiting from the policy.

“While everyone else around the world is tightening restrictions, we’ve opened the doors and our start-ups have benefited enormously from the capital flowing in, as well as from the knowledge and technical expertise these investors have brought,” he said.

Since the programme was comprehensively overhauled in April 2025, applicants from North America, Europe and Asia have committed a combined NZ$4.8 billion, through investments of either NZ$5 million or NZ$10 million each.

That figure is comparable to the NZ$14.8 billion in foreign investment recorded during the first quarter of this year.

Lachlan Nixon, co-founder of venture capital firm Motion Capital, said the programme had become “a badge of honour in Silicon Valley”.

Data show that 277 applications have come from Americans, with Californians showing particularly strong interest in obtaining New Zealand residency.

“A massive influx of capital is coming, but what really matters is the quality of the people now investing in the New Zealand economy,” Nixon said. He added that 40% of a recent NZ$27 million fundraising round for high-growth New Zealand companies came from 30 holders of “golden visas”.

According to Luxon, companies benefiting from the programme include critical minerals firm Zethos, which appointed European steel industry veteran Francesc Rubiralta to its board.

Nixon said other companies backed under the programme include seed oil protein producer Miruku and magnesium mining company Aspiring Materials.

In the mountain town of Queenstown, a preferred destination for many applicants, locals refer to billionaires such as Peter Thiel and Anthony Malkin, whose foundation owns New York’s Empire State Building, as “the secret residents on the hills”.

Most prefer to keep their wealth and presence private. Thiel’s citizenship was inadvertently revealed during a parliamentary debate, while Malkin’s presence became public after fireworks he set off on New Year’s Eve sparked grass fires.

According to Cotality, their arrival has made Queenstown New Zealand’s most expensive property market, with a median home price of NZ$1.8 million, double the national average.

Under the visa programme’s rules, participants may purchase only residential properties worth more than NZ$5 million, a provision designed to prevent their presence from distorting the broader housing market.

“There are a lot of billionaires here. They just wear gumboots,” one property adviser said.

However, doubts remain about the programme’s benefits. Sam Stubbs, chief executive of pension fund Simplicity, said people should make “genuine investments” in the country rather than seek special treatment in exchange for “a small amount of money” invested in a venture capital fund.

“Heaven comes at a price. It’s a price we all pay,” Stubbs said.

Some applicants have also voiced concerns. Courtney Andelman, who runs a venture capital fund in Santa Barbara with her husband Jim, successfully obtained a visa last year and now visits New Zealand regularly.

“There’s something magical in the air and the water. It’s an incredibly healthy place,” Andelman said.

However, she said she wanted to settle in a smaller South Island city such as Nelson, where her investments could have a greater impact, but found very few properties worth more than NZ$5 million.

She also complained that under New Zealand’s tax rules, if her family spends more than 183 days a year in the country, their worldwide income becomes subject to New Zealand taxation.

Andelman said she loved New Zealand but expressed concern and issued an implicit warning.

“How to make every dollar achieve its highest and best use is a question we constantly ask ourselves. If New Zealand doesn’t offer the best value, we’ll go somewhere else. Every one of those dollars is mobile.”

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Oil industry lobbies White House to avert potential Trump export ban

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Oil industry executives and White House officials are engaging in a new push to prevent any move by the administration to restrict US oil exports.

According to a report by Politico, industry representatives say these efforts extend to the White House Domestic Policy Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, the Department of Energy, and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

Trump believes that oil prices could harm the Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress in the November mid-term elections.

“Everyone from the industry and within the administration is working hand in hand to prevent this,” an energy industry executive said.

The individual added that White House officials had not formally raised the idea, “but everyone knows Trump will act like Trump again.”

The White House maintains that export restrictions are not on the agenda.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement: “While the President and the entire energy team are taking various measures to mitigate temporary disruptions in the energy market, the administration has been very clear: there is no plan to impose restrictions on oil and gas exports.”

White House representatives did not confirm whether industry lobbyists had approached specific agencies or officials to discuss the export issue. Department of Energy representatives did not respond to queries.

However, although administration officials have guaranteed since the early days of the Iranian war that an export ban was off the table, Trump’s directive to the Department of Justice in June to investigate oil companies on charges of price gouging put the sector on high alert.

Concerns within the industry mounted after Trump stated on Monday that oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron were making “too much money.”

Industry executives now fear Trump may try to make a move against them by restricting fuel export activities abroad, which have boomed since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Another industry official said the sector had reiterated its concerns regarding export controls to the White House “very recently.”

The Trump administration has already tried several different approaches to lower prices that enjoy broader support from the oil industry.

These include the release of millions of barrels of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserve and the temporary suspension of the Jones Act to make it easier for non-American vessels to transport oil and natural gas between US ports.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil company CEO, and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly opposed the idea of limiting or banning exports.

Wright stated in May that the administration had “definitely” ruled out the option of banning diesel exports.

Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said he was “confident” Trump understood the need to maintain oil exports, recalling that early in the crisis, the president had encouraged other countries to buy American oil:

“The administration has repeatedly expressed that they are opposed to [export controls]. Therefore, I do not think there is any change in their stance at the moment. Frankly, it feels as though we have to clarify this issue every three weeks.”

In a note sent to clients on Tuesday, consultancy firm ClearView Energy stated that the moment for the White House to take a step toward limiting fuel exports “might be approaching.”

The firm noted that former President Joe Biden had considered imposing export restrictions ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections following a “long summer of high petrol prices” caused by the war in Ukraine.

US crude oil exports increased by approximately 30% compared with last year, reaching nearly 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of July.

Shipments of refined products such as diesel, petrol, and other types of oil rose by 20%, exceeding 8 million barrels per day.

Opponents of exports argue that sending these cargoes abroad leads to rising prices domestically.

However, the oil and gas industry contends that closing the door to exports would harm the domestic market and cause their production to decline.

“Export bans may seem politically attractive, but ultimately they will lead to the exact opposite of the intended effect,” said a refining industry lobbyist who noted they were in contact with the White House on the matter, arguing that cutting off American exports from international markets would mean “a decline in US production, supply shortages, further upward pressure on domestic prices, and even greater disruptions in the global market.”

Chet Thompson, president and CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, stated that export controls would force US refiners to produce less petrol because they would lose commercial channels to ship other surplus fuels, such as diesel, produced during the process.

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US and Ukraine restore intelligence sharing to former levels

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Three US senators have reported that intelligence sharing between Washington and Kyiv has reached its former level. The White House declined to disclose details of the current intelligence relationship, emphasizing that President Donald Trump remains focused on ending the conflict.

American senators reported that intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine has returned to its previous level.

According to a report by Politico, the senators offering this assessment include Democratic Senator Mark Warner, a long-standing advocate for increasing aid to Ukraine.

Commenting on the matter, Warner said: “I don’t want to get into details, but things have improved.” Republican senators John Cornyn and Roger Wicker stated that information sharing has accelerated during a period of “strategic importance”.

Democratic Senator Tim Kaine also noted that he has observed signs of a revival in information sharing between the US and Ukraine.

The White House did not disclose details regarding the current state of its intelligence-sharing relationship with Ukraine. However, in comments to Politico, it emphasized that US President Donald Trump is focused on contributing to the termination of the conflict.

A White House official told Politico: “The President and his team remain committed to playing a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and remain optimistic that we will ultimately reach a peace agreement.”

Last autumn, the Financial Times reported that Trump had issued instructions to prepare for sharing intelligence data that could assist Ukraine in conducting strikes deep inside Russian territory.

Russian authorities are demanding that Western nations cease providing military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that such assistance will not prevent Moscow from achieving its military campaign objectives.

Last year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested that the US side clarify information regarding the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine.

According to statements from the Kremlin, Russia has long been aware that the US and NATO countries collect intelligence and transfer it to the Ukrainian military, noting that this is “not a new development”.

Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will not tolerate attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will continue to respond forcefully.

In June, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is prepared to conduct negotiations with Ukraine on the basis of the agreements reached in Istanbul.

According to Putin, the parties must also take into account the agreements reached between Moscow and Washington in Anchorage, the situation on the front line, and the conditions for a settlement previously set out by Russia.

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