America
US PCE inflation surges to 4.1% in May as war in Iran drives up energy prices
Federal inflation data released on Thursday showed prices recording their fastest annual increase in three years, presenting severe challenges for President Donald Trump and economic policymakers.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, revealed that prices rose 4.1% over the past year, with a 0.7% increase in May alone.
While a significant portion of the increase was driven by high energy prices linked to the war in Iran, the broad-based nature of the price increases in May has alarmed economists.
Five key takeaways emerge from the newly released data:
The rising cost of the war in Iran
The new PCE report underscores the stark costs of the war in Iran, where global supplies of oil and other key commodities have been disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
US households spent $552.8 billion on gasoline and other energy products in May, up from $422.3 billion in February and $401.6 billion in May 2025.
Prices for gasoline and energy products rose by 6.5% in May, following a 20.9% surge in March and a 5.5% increase in April. March marked the first full month of the war in Iran.
“Inflation is at a three-year high because of the war in Iran, and it’s a grinding process for middle- and lower-income Americans,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in an analysis.
Trump’s cost-of-living challenge deepens
President Trump last week expressed confidence that inflation would quickly recede following an agreement reached with Iran that allowed a significant resumption of oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to that development, crude oil prices fell sharply, and retail gasoline prices began trending downward in June.
However, Long warned that the May inflation data shows Americans are facing a much deeper cost-of-living crisis even as they wait for gasoline prices to permanently fall.
Even excluding volatile food and energy costs, core annual inflation reached 3.4% in May. The core index rose 0.3% last month alone, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% annual target.
“The inflation spike isn’t just about oil,” Long said. “Shelter, healthcare, and electricity are also squeezing family budgets and driving overall inflation.”
Trump already faced severe voter backlash over inflation before launching the war in Iran. Having campaigned during the 2024 presidential race on a promise to bring down prices, the president and Republicans are struggling to convince voters they can be trusted on the issue.
Trump also abruptly canceled a signing ceremony scheduled for Wednesday for a bipartisan housing bill that passed the House of Representatives earlier this week, disrupting what could have been a key legislative victory for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.
While Trump initially said he was holding up the legislation due to a dispute with Senate Republicans over a voting rights bill, he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that only lower interest rates would truly revive the housing market.
“It’s all about the interest rate,” Trump said. “Get the interest rate down.”
Rising pressure on the Fed over interest rates
Following the hot inflation data, a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasingly seen as highly unlikely.
Members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously last week to hold interest rates steady as inflation continued to rise and the labor market showed signs of improvement.
The combination of high inflation and resilient economic activity undercuts the likelihood of the Fed stimulating the economy through interest rate cuts. If both inflation and labor demand continue to climb, the Fed may even be forced to raise rates.
Bill Adams, chief US economist at Fifth Third Bank, offered the following assessment:
“If core inflation is still running at these rates in September, or if labor supply constraints start pushing the unemployment rate down, a rate hike will become likely,” Adams said. “In the near term, the biggest upside risks to inflation come from the AI boom straining prices for electronics and power, and from labor-intensive services in industries with high shares of foreign-born workers.”
Global volatility clouds the outlook
A long-term resolution to the war in Iran could help bring down gasoline prices and ease broader inflationary pressures.
However, lingering uncertainties over the US-Iran deal and Israel’s continued military pressure on Lebanon keep the risk of new flashpoints alive.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that despite efforts by international bodies to restore normal maritime traffic in the Gulf, tankers must navigate Iranian-controlled routes in the Strait of Hormuz or risk attack.
According to data and analytics firm Kpler, the United Nations International Maritime Organization launched an operation earlier this week to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers from the strait, confirming Thursday that the number of transiting vessels had risen to 70.
Economic activity persists despite price hikes
The US economy has remained resilient in the face of high inflation, buoyed by rising consumer spending and falling weekly jobless claims.
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% in May, even as prices climbed at a faster pace.
This indicates that consumers are largely funding their expenditures through savings or stock market gains.
“The personal saving rate has fallen to 3% in recent months, down from 4.6% in 2025, which suggests consumers are dipping into savings or drawing on wealth to fund spending,” said Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Rising financial wealth continues to support spending among higher-income households.”
America
Congress poised to block Trump team’s $1.5 trillion defence budget bid
The US Congress is unlikely to approve the Donald Trump administration’s record $1.5 trillion defence budget request for the 2027 fiscal year.
According to a report by The Washington Post citing congressional sources, budget negotiations have stalled due to cross-party disagreements.
Roughly 30 US lawmakers interviewed by the newspaper said that defence policy and spending bills had reached an “impasse” following the total collapse of bipartisan consensus and personal friction between members of Congress and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The Trump administration aims to divide the requested funding into two tranches, seeking support from a portion of Democrats for an initial $1.15 trillion package while pushing through a second $350 billion portion solely with Republican votes.
According to the report, Republicans have failed to secure even internal consensus to pass this second $350 billion package.
The US defence budget for 2026 stands at approximately $1 trillion, which includes a one-off allocation of $150 billion approved by Congress last year for priority objectives ranging from the development of advanced weapons systems to incentivising the American defence industry.
The new budget requested by the administration foresees a 40% increase in defence spending, covering funding for new weaponry and replenishing stocks of precision-guided missiles expended during the war with Iran.
Defence Secretary Hegseth also asked Congress to allocate an additional $67 billion for military operations, including the conflict with Iran.
The Washington Post noted that lawmakers have very limited time to resolve the crisis, as only 20 working days remain for Congress before the end of the year.
Bill for Middle East military operations mounts
The US proposed that defence spending be taken into account when allocating privileges within NATO.
According to a report by The Hill based on a US Central Command (CENTCOM) assessment, Washington’s expenditure on military operations targeting Iran has risen by more than $3 billion over the past month, reaching $47 billion.
The CENTCOM document indicates that munitions procurement constitutes the largest share of military spending at $29 billion.
Additional costs tied directly to conducting combat operations amount to roughly $12 billion, while $6.1 billion is needed to replace lost military equipment and hardware.
Expenditures for supporting personnel deployed to the region, air transport, communications, and logistical transit in the theatre of operations are calculated at $7.6 billion.
Expenses required to repair and rebuild US military bases in the Middle East were not included in this official cost breakdown.
In July, the House of Representatives narrowly passed a $1.15 trillion defence budget bill by a margin of just 216 votes to 212.
Six Democratic lawmakers voted in favour of the bill, while seven Republican lawmakers voted against their own party.
The Washington Post had previously reported that the Pentagon faced a severe funding shortfall.
The White House had requested an urgent $67 billion from Congress to cover military spending.
The newspaper noted that if lawmakers failed to act, the military would soon be forced to make far more painful concessions.
America
Bolsonaro reportedly leaves Brazil on jet linked to scandal-hit firm
Flávio Bolsonaro fled Brazil on a plane belonging to the fleet of Argentine company Baires Fly, a firm linked to a businessman associated with a convicted drug trafficking conspirator, according to allegations.
The company, tied to an entrepreneur with business links to Federico “Fred” Machado, who faced drug trafficking charges in the US, is also named in a corruption investigation involving disability agency funds under the administration of Javier Milei.
Fórum Investiga, the investigative unit of Revista Fórum, uncovered these connections through court documents and public records in Argentina and the United States.
Sergio Daniel Mastropietro, a commercial broker for Baires Fly, was a business partner of Machado and currently faces money laundering and illicit association charges in connection with the scandal at Argentina’s National Disability Agency (ANDIS).
The company’s role drew scrutiny after the Argentine government confirmed early Wednesday that Bolsonaro entered the country with his wife and two daughters and boarded a private Baires Fly aircraft bound for Guayaquil, Ecuador.
According to Argentina’s National Directorate of Migration, the family crossed the border via the Tancredo Neves International Bridge between Foz do Iguaçu and Puerto Iguazú on Tuesday at 22:50.
The family boarded the plane at 23:30, and the Gulfstream G400, registered as LV-JQW, took off at 00:22 on Wednesday.
The journey followed an order by Federal Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes seizing Bolsonaro’s passports and barring him from leaving Brazil.
The drug trafficking link traces back to Argentine aviation businessman Federico Andrés Machado, known as Fred Machado, who was accused in the US of participating in an international ring tied to cocaine trafficking and money laundering.
Machado was a partner with Sergio Mastropietro in SO VAIN S.A., a company formed in 2010 for aviation-related ventures. Argentine investigations also documented shared travels, commercial ties, and common Buenos Aires addresses between the two men.
In February 2021, the US Department of Justice unsealed indictments against eight individuals for their roles in an international conspiracy involving narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and financial fraud.
Machado was among those indicted and was identified as an operator engaged in the purchase and sale of aircraft through his firm, South Aviation.
The investigation encompassed a network utilizing US-registered aircraft, several of which were seized in other nations while carrying large shipments of cocaine.
Machado was extradited from Argentina in November 2025 and subsequently reached a plea agreement with US prosecutors.
In August 2026, a federal court in Texas convicted him of conspiracy to commit money laundering and wire fraud.
The initial drug trafficking charge was dismissed as part of that plea agreement.
Machado’s commercial connection is with Mastropietro rather than directly with Baires Fly. The official owner of the company is Luis Grande, who has operated in Argentina’s private aviation sector for decades.
The other scandal involving Baires Fly centres on ANDIS, the agency responsible for providing assistance to people with disabilities in Argentina.
That inquiry examines allegations of contract steering, overbilling, kickbacks, and money laundering in questionable tenders during the Milei administration.
According to documents from the investigation led by federal prosecutor Franco Picardi, two ANDIS providers, Prolite Orthopedics and Probock, transferred 95.06 million Argentine pesos into a Baires Fly bank account on 10 September 2025. That sum represents approximately $62,000 based on exchange rates from 28 October 2026.
The payments occurred after Mastropietro sent the firm’s banking details to Miguel Ángel Calvete, who was identified as one of the figures behind the fraudulent scheme under investigation.
Following those transfers, invoices were issued for the advance purchase of flight hours on company aircraft.
Investigators suspect these commercial transactions were used to lend an appearance of legality to funds derived from irregular public contracts.
Financial tracking uncovered even larger sums. Documents reviewed by Argentine courts show Baires Fly billed five companies tied to the investigated contracts approximately 1.097 billion pesos, or around $720,000, between 2023 and 2025.
This figure reflects registered commercial transactions; it represents a fully confirmed amount of embezzled funds.
On 16 October, federal judge Ariel Lijo ordered formal charges against Mastropietro on suspicion of aggravated money laundering and illicit association.
The ruling also expanded charges against former ANDIS director and former Milei ally Diego Spagnuolo, alongside others allegedly involved in the conspiracy.
Argentina’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office stated that the probe revealed suspected fraud in contracts for medication, prosthetics, and equipment intended for assistance programme beneficiaries.
The airline maintains business relationships with figures across Argentine politics. In November 2023, days after winning the presidential election, Javier Milei used a Baires Fly plane to travel to the US. Luis Grande, the company’s owner, piloted the flight.
In the ANDIS investigation, Mastropietro denied managing Baires Fly or being formally part of the company, saying he acted only as an intermediary arranging aviation services.
The company maintains that it has no connection to the money laundering allegations.
The documents do not show that Bolsonaro was involved in the ANDIS scheme or in any drug trafficking activity.
There is also no evidence that Fred Machado played any role in arranging the flight.
America
Rubio outlines Venezuela election plan, says US will not wait two years
In the United States, the Trump administration has unveiled its plan to support electoral reforms in Venezuela and lead the country toward presidential elections.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told international journalists during a press conference on Monday that Venezuela’s current electoral infrastructure was “designed to rig elections”.
As the chief architect of the administration’s Venezuela policy, Rubio argued that this system must be overhauled quickly to enable a valid vote.
According to Rubio, talks between the government of Interim President Delcy Rodríguez and opposition factions led by Dinorah Figuera are moving toward a concrete timetable.
The sides are preparing to appoint a new Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) before the end of the year, followed immediately by the renewal of the National Electoral Council (CNE).
“We obviously need to use our leverage over the interim Venezuelan authorities to ensure that the process moves forward responsibly. Our goal is to hold elections,” Rubio said, welcoming what he described as “serious progress” in that direction.
The US secretary issued a warning, saying, “Whoever tries to derail the process will do serious damage to Venezuela.”
Speaking at a separate press briefing, an unnamed senior US Department of State official outlined the step to follow institutional renewal, according to a report by the Venezuelanalysis portal.
According to the official, once both the TSJ and the CNE are reconstituted, the Venezuelan presidency will be declared permanently vacant, triggering a constitutional six-month window to conduct elections under “competitive conditions”.
The same official stressed that political guarantees must be provided and media access rules regulated during this phase.
Advocating the inclusion of pro-government factions in the “transitional period”, the official said peaceful democratic transitions often require the cooperation of outgoing groups, citing Spain and Portugal as precedents.
Electoral timetable and judicial work accelerate
Asked about a definite election date, Rubio said the Rodríguez administration had complied with US timelines so far.
Emphasising that they would not wait two years for an election, Rubio said: “That is not going to happen. In the best-case scenario, I have two years and two months left in this job.”
Rubio’s remarks coincided with statements by Dinorah Figuera, who heads the opposition delegation in the negotiations with government representatives.
Figuera had predicted that presidential elections would take place in late 2027 or early 2028.
Meanwhile, during the third round of political dialogue in Venezuela, the parties agreed to review four pieces of legislation governing political participation, pluralism, and the autonomy of political organisations, including the Law on Political Parties, Public Meetings, and Demonstrations.
The discussions also addressed disqualifications from public office and the examination of legal frameworks governing political rights.
In parallel, Venezuela’s National Assembly officially initiated the process to renew all 32 justices of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice.
Applications from legal professionals seeking seats on the court will be accepted from Wednesday, 28 October until Wednesday, 11 November. The fourth round of dialogue is scheduled for 11 to 15 November.
Rodríguez and other senior Venezuelan officials have not yet commented on the US Department of State’s statements.
Machado’s return and convoy controversy
The White House’s assertions regarding Venezuelan reforms and elections coincided with the return of far-right opposition leader María Corina Machado to the country on Sunday.
Supporters of Machado, who had lived abroad for more than a year, called for their leader to be included in the ongoing negotiations.
Responding to questions about Machado’s return, Rubio said he had told the Rodríguez government “weeks ago” that she should be allowed to return to the country unhindered.
Denying claims that Washington obstructed Machado’s return, the Secretary of State said the opposition leader had merely been advised not to travel immediately following the twin earthquakes on 24 June.
Interim President Rodríguez, however, criticised the manner of the opposition politician’s return.
Characterising it as a “show” that could have been avoided, Rodríguez addressed Machado’s journey to Caracas at the head of a vehicular convoy covering 400 kilometres, following her appearance at a church in Lara state amid chants of “freedom” and calls for immediate presidential elections.
“The airports are right there. Let us stop putting on a show. Many people who benefited from this process aimed at peaceful coexistence and from the amnesty law were able to enter the country through the airport’s new transit structures,” Rodríguez said.
The interim president declined to reveal which route Machado had used to re-enter Venezuela.
Machado, who in recent years backed economic sanctions against Venezuela as well as foreign military intervention, left the country in December 2024 to travel to Oslo to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which she subsequently dedicated as a gift to Trump.
While Machado and her party maintain that the government had previously barred her from returning seven times, Venezuelan authorities deny the allegation.
Asked whether the judiciary would act against Machado, Rodríguez said she hoped to see “remorse and a change of direction” from the opposition figure, adding that the opposition leader could make “some contribution to the country”.
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