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Year-End Review: A Tumultuous and Thrilling 2024

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2024 is about to become history, and the year will certainly stand out as a period marked by turmoil, thrilling events, and unexpected developments—a year of upheaval fitting the natural attributes of the Chinese zodiac’s Year of the Dragon. In Chinese culture, the dragon, one of the 12 zodiac signs, symbolizes the emperor, a harbinger of good fortune, and a super beast full of vitality that can stir the seas and skies. In Western culture, however, the dragon represents ominous forces, possessing great power but also destructive and potentially devastating tendencies. Reflecting the nature of the Year of the Dragon, 2024 has witnessed a series of political maneuvers and conflicts across the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Asia, casting a bloody and shadowy tone over the world, foreshadowing more unrest and uncertainty in the coming year.

Trump’s Triumphant Return Sparks Global Anxiety

The biggest surprise and risk of 2024 was the U.S. presidential election and the unexpected, forceful comeback of former President Donald Trump. The Democratic Party, which had governed for just four years, replaced President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris in the race, but this did little to hinder Trump and the Republican Party’s overwhelming momentum. After surviving an assassination attempt, Trump stunned the world by reclaiming the White House with a decisive victory. The Republican Party also achieved a rare feat, gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as the Supreme Court.

Having already experienced the “fierce” leadership style of Trump, the world now faces an even more assertive and confident “Trump 2.0,” with the U.S. consolidating power under one party, increasingly shaped by Trump’s influence. Trump’s return to office is expected to lead to the U.S. withdrawing from international multilateral organizations and treaties, such as the WHO, the Paris Climate Agreement, and UNESCO, disrupting the global governance system. Trump’s “America First” and “America Above All” policies will likely result in steep tariffs on trade partners and pressure on security allies to significantly increase their military spending. Trump may also undermine U.S. post-WWII transatlantic and transpacific alliances, potentially damaging the so-called “Pax Americana.” Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st state, the necessity of owning Greenland from Denmark, and regaining control of the Panama Canal have left these nations feeling uneasy and tense.

Russia-Ukraine War Tilts in Favor of Russia 

After nearly three years, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly favoring Russia. As the conflict extends into its third year, Russia has transitioned from a strategic defensive position to an all-out offensive, consolidating control in the south and expanding its dominance in the Donbas region, forcing the Ukrainian army into retreat. Russia continues to target Ukraine’s infrastructure, aiming to demoralize both the Ukrainian military and civilian population. Despite ongoing aid from the U.S. and Europe, Ukraine suffers heavy losses, particularly in manpower, making it difficult to sustain prolonged warfare.

With Trump set to return to office and his opposition to prolonging the war, the U.S. policy of supporting Ukraine’s war of attrition is losing ground. Ukraine’s government is now faced with the possibility of losing U.S. support, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior officials to openly acknowledge their inability to reclaim lost territories. There is increasing openness to peace talks, even if it means ceding land. More Western leaders are beginning to believe that the war could reach a ceasefire by 2025.

Political Crises in Germany and France Challenge European Unity

 One of the year’s surprises was the domestic crises in Germany and France, the two engines of the European Union. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party led to internal conflict, resulting in a successful no-confidence vote in the Bundestag. This forced Germany to call early parliamentary elections in February 2025. The root of Germany’s political crisis lies in economic and social issues, including Scholz’s proactive involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, increased defense spending, and value-driven diplomacy aligned with the U.S. The inability to manage immigration, revive the manufacturing sector, and improve social welfare has led to declining public support. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining momentum and may play a role in forming the next government.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold early elections in mid-2024 resulted in a surge in far-right popularity, leading to a fragmented parliament and political instability. By December 4, Prime Minister Michel Bayeni, who had been in office for just three months, was ousted by parliament. Ten days later, François Bayrou took over as prime minister, becoming Macron’s sixth prime minister and the fourth within a year. However, Bayrou’s tenure remains uncertain, with approval ratings plummeting to a historic low of 34%.

After Brexit, the EU’s traditional “trio” slimmed down to the “Franco-German duo,” but with political instability and frequent government changes in both countries, European integration and cohesion are severely impacted. This weakens the influence of these cornerstone nations on international affairs. If far-right forces enter ruling coalitions, it will undoubtedly challenge traditional policies in Germany and France, potentially leading to the “fragmentation” of the EU and even a historic regression in the unification process.

The Middle East war was unprecedentedly brutal, leaving multiple losers and one winner

The “Sixth Middle East War” was triggered by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which rapidly spread vertically across the Eastern Mediterranean and horizontally to the Persian Gulf. This created an “eight-front” war, with Israel leading the U.S. in one camp and Iran and Syria aligning with militia forces from Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq in the opposing camp. The war, marked by brutal sieges in Gaza and intense airstrikes in Lebanon, unexpectedly reignited Syria’s civil war, which had been dormant for four years. Even more unexpectedly, this led to the swift collapse of the Syrian regime without major battles.

This hybrid war, interwoven with conventional warfare, guerrilla tactics, shadow wars, proxy conflicts, and high-tech operations, brought shame to modern civilization. Turkey emerged as the sole winner, exploiting the chaos to help topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, all other parties, including Israel and Palestine, ended up as losers. The biggest strategic failures were suffered by Russia and Iran, both of which had deeply influenced Syria. Russia lost its status as a major global player in the Middle East, while Iran’s painstakingly cultivated “Axis of Resistance” and “Shia Crescent” were severely damaged.

Apart from Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria—whose territorial losses to Israel provided some legitimacy to their military actions—other parties engaged in the conflict under the guise of self-defense or Palestinian liberation, pursuing their own interests. This war, the largest in the Middle East since the Cold War, resembled a “Spring and Autumn Unjust War,” driven by ulterior motives.

Former Colonies Assert Independence, France’s Military Fully Withdraws from Africa 

On December 20, France began withdrawing troops from Chad, a Central African nation. Although the withdrawal involved only 120 personnel, it marked a historic step in reducing France’s political and military influence in Africa, as Chad was France’s last military outpost on the continent. New governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—where coups had occurred—had previously expelled French troops, welcoming new allies such as Russia and the U.S.

France, a former colonial ruler of many African nations, had maintained a military presence even after these countries gained independence. This was often justified by counterterrorism efforts and the protection of French interests. France’s intermittent military interventions in Chad had lasted nearly 64 years, peaking at 1,000 troops. Since 2014, France’s counterterrorism operation “Barkhane” in the Sahel region once deployed 5,100 troops. However, as France’s overall power declined and President Macron sought to scale back overseas deployments, African nations’ growing sense of autonomy forced France to gradually retreat.

Failed Coup in South Korea: “Blue House Curse” Strikes Again

East Asia also saw turmoil in 2024. Initially, North Korea’s relations with the South deteriorated rapidly after drones infiltrated Pyongyang. This led to the renewal of a mutual defense alliance between North Korea and Russia, with reports of North Korean troops being sent to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, creating dual hotspots in East and West.

As global attention focused on the evolving North Korea-Russia relationship, South Korea experienced political upheaval overnight. Plagued by a political crisis, President Yoon Suk-yeol, swayed by advisers practicing fortune-telling, unconstitutionally declared martial law, triggering South Korea’s most severe constitutional crisis since the “June Struggle” of 1987.

Amid global scrutiny, opposition lawmakers broke through martial law lines and entered parliament, overturning Yoon’s decree with a two-thirds majority. This forced Yoon to retract his declaration and publicly apologize. Despite avoiding bloodshed, Yoon fell victim to the so-called “Blue House Curse,” becoming the second sitting president to face impeachment. Although the failed coup highlighted South Korea’s mature democratic processes, it exposed severe partisan strife, paralyzing the nation’s political system.

BRICS and SCO Expand, Global South Continues to Rise

On December 23, Russia, host of the 2024 BRICS Summit, announced that starting January 1, 2025, Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan would officially join BRICS as partner countries. This marks another major expansion following last year’s historic enlargement, incorporating nations from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. Additionally, 24 other nations remain on the waiting list for membership.

Coincidentally, at the June 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, Belarus’ membership was approved, bringing the total number of full members to 10, alongside two observer states and 14 dialogue partners.

BRICS and the SCO, both initiated by emerging and developing countries, continue to thrive and expand, underscoring the decline of the Western G7 bloc. This reflects the redistribution of political, economic, and trade power, highlighting the shifting balance from West to East and North to South. The Global South’s increasing cooperation and collective pursuit of peace and development symbolize a new vision, offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise turbulent 2024.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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